What Brexit after the triumph of Boris Johnson in the legislative?

Brexit will take place by the end of January. British voters have decided in favor of conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who won Thursday, December 12, a brilliant victory in the legislative, after more than three years of divisions around the exit of the European Union (EU).

The Conservatives, led by the bustling Boris Johnson, have indeed won Thursday, a very comfortable majority in Parliament, gaining several tens of additional seats compared to the previous election in 2017 (362 seats in the House of Commons against 317, after counting in 647 constituencies out of 650).

Until now, Boris Johnson had failed to get Parliament to pass the divorce agreement he had negotiated with Brussels because of a lack of a majority in the House of Commons. After three years of disagreements over the Brexit, "I will put an end to this nonsense and we will realize it in time for January 31," he said on Friday, in front of his supporters.

Difficult and complex negotiations

During the election campaign, the 55-year-old leader, who came to power in July as the savior of Brexit, promised to submit the agreement to deputies before Christmas with the aim of implementing the process in late January. Scheduled to depart on March 29th, it has been postponed three times.

This electoral triumph, which shows in his opinion the "irrefutable, irresistible and indisputable decision" of the British to leave the European Union, leaves him especially free to define what kind of Brexit he intends to implement, remaining more or less close to the EU.

Boris Johnson has put all his energy into a campaign during which he has repeated at will "Get brexit done!" (Let's realize Brexit) But he is careful not to specify his intentions: a divorce that maintains close relations with the EU, major economic partner of the country, or a stall with a divergence of common standards so far, social and environmental in particular ?

From the UK out of the EU will indeed open difficult and complex negotiations on the future trade relationship between London and the Europeans, expected to be concluded by the end of 2020. These talks are supposed to lead to an agreement when the transition period provided for in the London exit agreement with Brussels expires and can be extended for up to two more years.

Towards a gentler Brexit?

"With a large majority, Boris Johnson can ignore the European Research Group (ERG)", the most radically Europhobic wing of his Conservative Party, "and choose a softer Brexit if he wishes," said Charles Grant director of the Center for European Reform (CER) think tank on Twitter.

Moreover, the polls saw the Conservatives rob Labor, which recorded historic losses according to this poll, seats in its "red wall", an arc from north Wales to the north of England, a real revolution .

"The fact that the Conservative Party now has seats in the north of England and the Midlands, - which still have many manufacturing industries, a little agriculture, all areas that would be hit hard if there had a hard Brexit, or no divorce agreement, - now makes it more difficult for Boris Johson to implement something other than a mild Brexit ", AFP analysis Tony Travers, professor at the London School of Economics .

However, the danger of a sort of Singapore on the Thames, a tax haven for the ultra-deregulated financial sector, and an EU competitor on its doorstep, has already been noted by several European leaders, such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel. They intend to stifle it in the bud during negotiations on their future relationship.

The Prime Minister gave some indication of his intentions this week during the election campaign, assuring that "the agreement with Brussels means that we leave the EU with our relationship intact, without taxes and quotas".

"The agreement protects our supply chain ... it ensures that we have full standards equivalents and the needs of the industry," he said, seeming to favor alignment with the EU .

Congratulations to Boris Johnson on his great WIN! Britain and the United States will be hit by a massive new trade deal after BREXIT. This deal has the potential to be bigger and more lucrative than any deal that could be made with the EU Celebrate Boris!

But in parallel, Boris Johnson has also continued to boast of the great trade agreement he wanted to conclude with his friend Donald Trump, and that such an alignment would make it very difficult.

The US president also congratulated the British Prime Minister on Friday for his "great" victory. "The United Kingdom and the United States will now be free to conclude a huge new trade agreement after BREXIT, which is potentially much bigger and more lucrative than any agreement that could be reached with the European Union. Congratulations Boris! "Added Donald Trump on Twitter.

With AFP and Reuters

Newsletter Do not miss out on international news

subscribe