“Kiev does not know what to do with the Donbass”: why Zelensky is trying to rewrite the Minsk agreements

Kiev hopes to amend the text of the Minsk agreements. This was stated by the President of Ukraine on the air of the channel "1 + 1".

“We must understand with you that four years have passed since the time of Minsk (the signing of the Minsk Agreements. - RT ), everything changes in our life. We understand that it was not my team that signed Minsk, but we, as the government, must fulfill the conditions that the then government went to. But I’m sure that we can change some things and we will change, ”said Vladimir Zelensky.

"Achilles' heel"

Speaking about the specific changes that the Ukrainian leadership expects to make in the text of the agreements, the politician indicated a clause on the border of Donbass with Russia.

As Zelensky explained, the provision on transferring control of the border with the Russian Federation to Ukraine only after successful local elections in the Donbass does not correspond to the position of the current Ukrainian leadership. According to the politician, the question of the state border is the “Achilles heel” of the Minsk agreements.

“I said this, I don’t know how many times, and this is the final decision,” Zelensky emphasized.

• Vladimir Zelensky.
• Reuters
• © Valentyn Ogirenko

In addition, the politician touched on the decentralization of Ukraine, provided for by the Minsk agreements. As Zelensky noted, now the country's leadership is preparing a package of documents on decentralization throughout Ukraine.

“That is, it seems to me that we are fulfilling all these obligations. Yes, the wording is a little different, but it seems to me that, in principle, it fits, ”Zelensky said.

Also, according to the Ukrainian leader, he promised Vladimir Putin that there would be no genocide in the Donbass, similar to the Srebrenica massacre, if the region returns to Kiev’s control.

“We are other people, free, democratic. We understand that Ukrainians live there. And we respect the citizens of Ukraine ... No massacre ... We are a different government, for us the main thing is human lives, ”Zelensky said.

Recall, earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted that the Donbass could expect a repeat of the events in Srebrenica if the control of the border is transferred to the Armed Forces without any guarantees of maintaining order in the region and deterring nationalists from Kiev. We are talking about the events of 1995, when after the beginning of the collapse of Yugoslavia, the Bosnian troops took the city of Srebrenica and staged the genocide of the Muslim male population. Then 7-8 thousand people were killed.

The statements of the Ukrainian leader about the desire to change the clauses of the Minsk agreements have already been reacted in Moscow. According to the press secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov, discussing this idea is strange.

“Here you don’t even have to ask the Kremlin. Mutual will of the parties to the conflict is needed here, and the parties to the conflict are Kiev, on the one hand, and the self-proclaimed republics on the other. Under the Minsk complex of measures is the signature of representatives of the self-proclaimed republics, ”RIA Novosti quoted Peskov as saying.

In addition, an official representative of the Kremlin recalled that at the summit of the "Norman Four", held in Paris on December 9, a joint statement was adopted to resolve the situation in the Donbass. According to Peskov, the document agreed upon by the leaders "can and should be considered a success."

In his first paragraph, all parties advocated a complete ceasefire in the region before the end of this year, three additional military-force withdrawal sites will be created in the framework of the tripartite contact group in Minsk, and prisoners will be exchanged in the format of "all for all." The second paragraph involves the approval by Kiev of a law on the special status of Donbass and the implementation of the so-called Steinmeier formula in Ukrainian legislation. In addition, the leaders agreed to hold the next Norman-style summit in four months.

"Provocative character"

It is worth recalling that, according to the Minsk Agreements, Ukraine should carry out constitutional reform, the main element of which will be decentralization "taking into account the characteristics of certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, agreed with representatives of these areas." Also, the special status of these areas should be fixed in the legislation of Ukraine.

Similar obligations of Ukraine are enshrined in the Steinmeier formula, which Kiev undertook to follow earlier. So, first, the Kiev authorities will have to grant the unrecognized republics a temporary special status, which will become permanent after local elections are held in the region.

As for the border mentioned by Zelensky, the text of the Minsk Agreements speaks of the beginning of the restoration by the Ukrainian government of full control over the state border on the first day after local elections, subject to constitutional reform in the country.

• Press conference following the summit in the "Norman format".
• Reuters
• © Ludovic Marin / Pool

However, the current administration is not satisfied with these conditions: in Kiev, earlier they talked about plans to rewrite the Minsk agreements. Zelensky raised this topic at a press conference following the Norman summit - then he said that Moscow and Kiev have different approaches to this issue.

In turn, Vladimir Putin at a meeting in the French capital noted that all clauses of the Minsk Agreements are interlinked, and an attempt to “open” one of them will entail a rewriting of the others, which will lead to the loss of all agreements reached.

The chancellor of Germany holds a slightly different point of view: Angela Merkel believes that the Minsk agreements should be a “flexible” document.

Recall that in Kiev before the summit in the Norman format, they noted that they intend to raise the issue of control over the border of Donbass with Russia. About this on the eve of the meeting, told reporters the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Alexei Danilov. According to him, the issue of the border was included in the list of key points that Vladimir Zelensky was preparing for the summit.

“Until the Ukrainian border is returned, until the Ukrainian military stands there, many processes will be extremely difficult, I would say, almost impossible,” Danilov said at the end of November.

And now Kiev continues to lobby for this idea - on December 11, the representative of Ukraine in the political subgroup of the trilateral contact group (TKG) to resolve the situation in the Donbass, Aleksey Reznikov, announced that the republic would prepare proposals to amend the Minsk agreements for the next summit in the Norman format.

Commenting on these initiatives of Kiev, the Russian envoy in the contact group on Ukraine, Boris Gryzlov, noted that any statements about amending the Minsk agreements bring only harm.

“Such statements are provocative in nature and can complicate the situation in the Donbass. I emphasize again: there will not be and will not be any changes to the Minsk agreements, ”he said.

Escalation risk

The head of the Ukrainian analytical center, economist Alexander Okhrimenko, in an interview with RT, explained that from the point of view of Kiev, holding elections in the current conditions does not make sense - the Ukrainian authorities are ready to recognize a vote as legitimate only if they control these areas at the time of the election.

“Today it is difficult for the parties to find a compromise, because the DPR and LPR want everything to remain as it is, while Zelensky insists on the liquidation of the republics. The two sides should mature to consensus, ”the expert said.

According to Ohrimenko, Kiev and the republics of Donbass today have too different positions.

• DPR checkpoint in the village of Petrovskoye, Donetsk region.
• Reuters
• © Alexander Ermochenko

“Most likely, at his second Norman meeting, Zelensky will propose his own version of the Minsk Agreements, which Russia, the DPR and the LPR will unequivocally reject, while Germany and France will take a neutral position. As a result, it will be necessary to conduct new negotiations, ”the expert suggested.

The deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Moscow State Pedagogical University Vladimir Shapovalov has a different point of view: he is sure that Zelensky’s statements about the border are connected not so much with the real position of Kiev, but with the desire of the Ukrainian leader to "demonstrate to society his firmness in upholding the interests of Ukraine."

“Thus, Zelensky is following the lead of an aggressive, warlike minority, like his predecessor Poroshenko,” Shapovalov said in an interview with RT.

According to Shapovalov, Zelensky does not have a clear strategy and clear value basis for resolving the conflict in the Donbass, but it is important for him to stay in power and maintain his rating and position both within Ukraine and abroad.

“It seems that in Kiev they don’t know what to do with the Donbass and how to solve this situation. The President of Ukraine does not have a clear plan for resolving the conflict, and therefore such statements sound. In practice, attempts to rewrite the Minsk agreements can only lead to the situation in the south-east of Ukraine becoming even more explosive, since the agreements are the only document that at least somehow hinders military operations. Its liquidation may result in a sharp escalation of tension in the Donbass, new tragedies and put the very existence of Ukraine in jeopardy, ”summed up Shapovalov.