“It's a long and complicated process”: how the victory of Boris Johnson’s party can affect Britain’s exit from the EU

The results of the parliamentary elections held on December 12 in the United Kingdom clearly indicate the desire of the British to leave the European Union. This was stated by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

“The British people clearly, unequivocally, indisputably advocated that we leave the EU ... I will put an end to all this absurdity, and we will have a brexit on time - until January 31. No “if,” no “but,” no “maybe,” Johnson said.

During the vote, the Conservative Party (Tory) secured an absolute majority in the House of Commons. According to the final results, conservatives won 365 out of 650 seats in parliament. Conservatives have not achieved such results since Margaret Thatcher.

According to experts, the election results, by and large, were the answer to the question of the need for a second Brexit referendum, which the British Laborites planned to organize in case of victory. Such an opinion, in particular, was expressed in a conversation with RT by journalist Simon Wright.

“The fateful role for the Laborites was played by the fact that before the general election they promised to hold a second referex on Brexit, not realizing that these elections would become a referendum. There were no other options: the Brexit issue was to be decided at the vote, and victory could be secured only by promising voters that Britain would leave the EU and get rid of all the hardships associated with this process. However, Jeremy Corbin, like the Liberal Democrats, was not able to figure out where the wind actually blows, ”Wright said.

This position was supported on the television channel RT and British political analyst Alex de Ruyter.

“This election was a de facto vote or referendum on the issue of Brexit, and therefore it is curious that in the districts where Labor is usually supported, this time supported by conservatives,” said de Ruyter.

In turn, professor of economics David Collins believes that Johnson went all-in, playing on the British fatigue from prolonged brexitis, and won.

“This election, apparently, was the second referendum on secession from the EU. For most voters, the Brexit issue was a decisive factor. He was the highest priority, and the Conservative Party promised to put an end to the troubles and confusion that have been a heavy burden on our shoulders for the past two years, ”Collins emphasized.

Recall that in September the Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority after several deputies, expressing disagreement with Johnson’s position on Brexit, left her ranks and joined the opposition. After that, the Tories could not get the necessary advantage in the vote, even with the support of their main ally, the Democratic Union Party of Northern Ireland (DUP).

Now, analysts say, a significant advantage in parliament will allow Johnson’s cabinet to adopt a plan for Britain’s secession from the European Union - something that Theresa May’s cabinet could not achieve because it did not receive the approval of the parliamentary opposition.

According to experts, Johnson managed to win with such a wide margin, because, unlike his predecessor, he took an uncompromising position with respect to Brexit.

“His statements about the firm determination to complete Brexit, to bring this process to the end, helped him gain a majority. The society has accumulated fatigue from Britain’s uncertain situation, and the desire to find a solution has prompted the electorate to vote for a party that offers an effective solution. In addition, the deal to exit Britain from the EU has already been agreed, and the question was only to get it through parliament. However, the split in society still persists, since the proportion of those who would like to stay in the EU is still large, ”Kira Godovanyuk, senior researcher at the Center for British Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained in an interview with RT.

She also recalled that forecasts and opinion polls conducted ahead of the election predicted Johnson's victory.

• Boris Johnson at the premier's residence
• Reuters
• © Thomas Mukoya

"Worse than ever"

Speaking in London, Boris Johnson emphasized that the results of the current vote draw a line under the discussion on a second referex referendum on Brexit.

“I think through this vote we put an end to pitiful threats to hold a second referendum,” said the head of the British government.

Thus, Johnson hinted at the defeat of the Labor Party and their leader, Jeremy Corbin. Having received 203 seats in the parliament of 650, the left showed the worst result since 1935.

Jeremy Corbin has repeatedly called for a re-referendum on Brexit, during which supporters of maintaining Britain’s EU membership, in his opinion, could well have won more votes than those who support the Kingdom’s withdrawal from the union.

“We will complete the brexit by giving people the right to make the final choice between leaving on reasonable terms or retaining membership within six months,” Corbin wrote in his column for Mirror in late October.

However, now these plans are not destined to come true - after the defeat in the elections, which the British media call "crushing," Corbin said that he would resign as party leader. Party members blamed it on him.

“The problem is in Corbin. We understood that he was not worthy as a leader, and from the point of view of any qualities necessary to lead a political party, he proved himself worse than nowhere, ”leads the Associated Press the opinion of Labor Alan Johnson, who previously held several ministerial posts in the kingdom’s government.

Other opponents of Brexit - the Liberal Democratic Party - were defeated in the election. Its leader, Joe Swinson, considered early elections as an opportunity to strengthen the position of its political power. She wanted to achieve this goal through an even more radical step than the second referendum, namely, the complete abolition of Brexit.

“Brexit is bad for our country. We will stop the brexit. This is a very simple message, and we know that millions of people will vote for it, ”Swinson said more than once.

However, the Liberal Democrats won only 11 seats in the House of Commons - one less than when voting in 2017. They also lost all defector deputies from other political forces, thanks to which the total number of party seats in the previous parliament increased to 21. Swinson herself also lost her mandate. Like Labor leader Corbin, after announcing the exit polls, Swinson announced her intention to resign.

As the main reason for the defeat of conservatives and liberal democrats, experts cite their lack of a “core thesis”, in contrast to conservatives who were able to rally around one common idea.

“The Laborites were in crisis, they did not have a clear alternative scenario that they could offer the voter, so they were only involved in criticizing Brexit. Most likely, it became unpleasant for the British voter that the Laborites began to accuse the conservatives of playing into the hands of the Kremlin. Everyone is tired of playing the Russian card, ”Natalya Yeryomina, professor of the European Studies Department of the Department of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, said in an interview with RT.

“The battle will continue”

Political scientists believe that now Boris Johnson will be able to pass through parliament his draft agreement with the EU, according to which the UK should leave the EU by January 31.

“Now the government can conduct a draft agreement with the EU, which Johnson had previously concluded. Conservatives proposed a clear scenario that shows what they intend to do after the country leaves. Johnson reached a certain agreement with the EU, and now there is an opportunity to further develop this area and look for mutually beneficial options for completing the procedure, ”Yeryomina said.

The first meeting of the renewed House of Commons will be held on December 17. After that, on December 19, Queen Elizabeth II will visit the parliament and deliver a speech to the updated deputy staff.

• Election Counting
• Reuters
• © Ian Walton

The Mirror newspaper writes that the second reading and voting on the draft agreement submitted by Johnson is likely to take place before December 25. Then the agreement will be transferred to various parliamentary committees, where it will be transformed into a law regulating the process of Britain's exit from the EU. After this, the third reading and voting will take place, as well as the consideration in the House of Lords. Only after all these procedures can a bill get royal approval.

At the same time, Kira Godovanyuk recalls that even if Brexit does take place before January 31, there will remain many questions that London and Brussels have to solve after this date. In particular, we are talking about a free trade agreement.

“Throughout 2020, the UK and the EU will be in transition. Over this period, countries will need to coordinate issues, especially those related to the future of bilateral economic relations. This is a long and rather complicated process; it will not be possible to quickly reach agreements. In addition, at the same time, the United Kingdom will begin discussing trade agreements with the United States and other partners, so the battle will continue, ”the expert concluded.