Vladimir Zelensky during a telephone conversation with the head of the European Council Charles Michel said that Kiev "will remain a reliable partner in the matter of gas transit." The President of Ukraine also thanked the official for his support in the trilateral negotiations on the gas issue, the press service of Zelensky reported.

The current ten-year contract for the transportation of Russian blue fuel to Europe through the Ukrainian gas transmission system (GTS) ends on December 31, 2019. Earlier, representatives of Moscow, Kiev and Brussels held several rounds of negotiations, but could not find a compromise.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Prime Minister of Ukraine Alexey Goncharuk said that Kiev needed a long-term contract for gas transit from Russia. Such an agreement, as noted by the head of the Cabinet, will "guarantee the energy security of Ukraine and Eastern Europe." At the same time, he acknowledged that the negotiation process was going on with difficulties.

“Negotiations are ongoing, this is a difficult matter, this is a two-way road ... The arguments are strong on both sides. Therefore, I think that in the end we will come to some kind of agreement. Of course, the question is what this agreement will be - it's too early to talk about it. This is a question of rapprochement of positions, ”Goncharuk said.

On December 9, the Ukrainian prime minister wrote on his Facebook page that Kiev was ready for a “gas war” scenario to achieve its goals.

“But we are fully prepared for this: our storage facilities are full, our logic is supported by the EU and the decision of the Stockholm arbitration, and Nord Stream-2 is not completed. We need a long-term contract. We noted that we will not give debt. One of the options that we are considering is that we can accept debt with gas, ”Goncharuk explained.

  • Prime Minister of Ukraine Alexey Goncharuk
  • © Government of Ukraine

In a commentary to RT, political analyst, economist Alexander Dudchak said that Zelensky’s and Goncharuk’s attacks indicate Kiev’s desire to shift responsibility for the “gas deadlock” to Moscow. The expert is sure that the current policy of the Ukrainian leadership contradicts the national interests of the country and common sense.

“The transit of Russian gas is very important for Ukraine, since it annually brings it $ 3 billion. However, direct gas supplies from Russia are no less important. It is to solve this problem that the main efforts of the authorities should be directed.

Since 2015, Kiev has been buying "European gas", that is, Russian fuel, which is supplied to Ukraine by Eastern European countries with their extra charge. This, in fact, is a robbery of Ukrainians, and without normal relations with the Russian Federation, the situation cannot be changed, ”Dudchak said.

“Could be much cheaper.”

The Russian side offers Kiev to extend the agreement of 2009 for one year. Moscow also insists on the mutual rejection of judicial claims, including the withdrawal by the Ukrainian side of Naftogaz’s petition to initiate an investigation by the European Commission against Gazprom.

According to the results of the “Norman Four” summit in Paris, which ended on December 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that if Moscow and Kiev agree on “joint honest work,” gas prices for Ukrainian industry could fall by a quarter.

“Remember the famous nursery rhyme:“ And we have gas in our apartment! And you?". And you have and will. But it can be much cheaper if we agree to work together honestly. It may be 25 percent cheaper than today the end consumer, first of all, the industrial consumer, ”the head of state said.

Meanwhile, Kiev expects to conclude a new ten-year transit contract with the Russian Federation. Ukraine is ready to abandon some financial claims, including a fine of $ 3 billion by decision of the Stockholm arbitration. However, Kiev insists that Moscow “compensate” for this amount with gas supplies or a discount on imports.

At the same time, a new lawsuit between Russia and Ukraine is gaining momentum due to Kiev's non-payment of debts on Eurobonds issued at the end of 2013. According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the amount of Ukraine’s obligations is $ 4.5 billion. The case is being considered by the Supreme Court of Great Britain.

“From the side of Kiev it’s very unwise to try to prove that Russia owes something. Throughout recent history, Ukraine has done everything possible so as not to repay Russian loans and not pay on time for gas. But as before: sitting on a pipe and ignoring debts will fail, ”said Andrei Suzdaltsev, deputy dean of the HSE faculty of world economics and world politics, in an interview with RT.

According to the estimates of Dmitry Marunich, co-chairman of the Ukrainian Energy Strategy Fund, in order to reach an acceptable gas transportation tariff, the annual fuel pumping through the Ukrainian gas transportation system should be at least 110 billion cubic meters. According to the expert, the transit of such volumes of fuel through Ukraine is impossible due to the lack of corresponding needs of the Russian Federation and the EU. In this regard, Marunich does not exclude a complete stop of gas pumping in January next year.

  • Gas storages
  • © PJSC Gazprom

However, according to Andrei Suzdaltsev, no matter how the circumstances arise, the EU’s Third Energy Package obliges Ukraine to ensure the transit of Russian gas, even if it enters the GTS without a corresponding agreement.

Despite this, Kiev has already made it clear that they are not going to comply with this norm. So, at the end of November, the commercial director of Naftogaz Yuri Vitrenko promised that Europe would not be able to receive Russian blue fuel without a transit contract. Gas from the Russian Federation will be pumped into Ukrainian storages as products of an “indefinite owner,” a top manager warned.

According to Alexander Dudchak, the time to resolve the gas issue "is left catastrophically small." Putting conditions that are unacceptable for Russia, Kiev expects that the “European partners” will put pressure on Moscow. However, according to the expert, in addition to Europe, ordinary consumers and industry of Ukraine are in the risk zone.

“The best option for Ukraine is, of course, to agree with Moscow on gas transit for several years and conclude an agreement on direct deliveries.

Moreover, as I understand it, the Kremlin is ready to provide a discount. However, Kiev stubbornly does not want to abandon the policy of blackmail, hindering the achievement of a mutually acceptable solution that lies on the surface, ”said Dudchak.

“Has no right to stop transit”

Recall that Kiev repeatedly interrupted the supply of Russian gas to the EU due to complications in relations with Moscow. The largest gas crisis is the situation that arose in January 2009, when fuel was not supplied to Europe for three weeks.

“International agreements oblige Ukraine to continue pumping Russian gas, even if no compromise is found by December 31. In other words, Kiev has no right to stop transit to the EU at its discretion. Despite this, I don’t have confidence in the decency of the Ukrainian authorities, ”said Dudchak.

Meanwhile, an RT source in the president’s office claims that Zelensky is solely committed to a “compromise solution,” realizing that otherwise “the Ukrainian pipe will turn into a pile of scrap metal.”

“Zelensky perfectly understands that without an agreement with the Russian Federation, the gas transportation system of Ukraine will not cost anything. In addition, Ukraine will lose transit profits and let Europe down. In addition, Ukraine risks being left without gas itself. Therefore, the president intends to negotiate, ”says the source.

A deputy from the Batkivshchyna party told RT that the efforts of the president’s office are undermined by the position of Naftogaz’s leadership, which initiates the filing of various lawsuits against Gazprom. According to him, to date, the top management of the company "is not ready to make concessions in the negotiation process for transit."

  • President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky
  • Reuters
  • © Charles Platiau / Pool

“Zelensky will overcome the resistance of Naftogaz. He understands that if the country is left without heat, then its rating will collapse. It is in his interests to resolve the gas issue at least for the short term, ”the source said.

Andrei Suzdaltsev holds a different point of view. He believes that Kiev is ready to take serious risks for the sake of a long-term transit contract and gas discounts. In addition, the expert admitted that Russian fuel may end up in Ukrainian storage facilities illegally if it gets into the gas transportation system of the republic without an agreement.

“It is very likely that there will be no agreement until December 31. Kiev is blindly convinced that Moscow will certainly make concessions to him, since projects bypassing Ukraine will not yet reach full capacity soon. However, such an uncompromising position of Kiev, coupled with illegal seizure of gas - and there have already been such precedents - can lead to the fact that Europe will completely exclude the option of transporting fuel through the territory of Ukraine, ”summed up Suzdaltsev.