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Legislative in the UK: the three possible scenarios around Brexit


The British go to the polls Thursday in crucial parliamentary elections for Brexit. Who of Prime Minister Boris Johnson or his Labor opponent Jeremy Corbyn will win the ...

Voting time has come for the British. Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson hopes to win, Thursday, December 12, a clear majority that will allow him to govern alone. But his lead in the polls crumbles before a poll described as uncertain. Here are the possible scenarios.

  • Clear victory for Johnson: on the road to Brexit

The conservatives won the absolute majority - 326 seats in theory, a little less in practice - for Boris Johnson, who focused his campaign on the promise to finally take the UK out of the European Union. The Parliament launches before Christmas the process of ratification of the Brexit agreement that it negotiated with Brussels for a final green light in January, allowing an exit on January 31, after three postponements.

The withdrawal agreement lays down the conditions for divorce between the United Kingdom and the European Union after 47 years of tumultuous marriage, in terms of citizens' rights and compliance with financial commitments. It also introduces a transitional period until the end of 2020, extendable, and addresses the problem of the border between the British province of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, member of the EU.

But the saga will not stop there. London will have until December 31, 2020 to negotiate its future relationship with its European neighbor. A delay that seems already impossible, as this type of negotiation usually takes years.

  • The Tories in the lead, without an absolute majority

Boris Johnson is trying to stay in charge of a minority government. He will need to find allies for this, which promises to be difficult.

As recent months have shown, governing with allies can lead to blockages and reduce the chances of adopting the Brexit agreement, resurrecting the dreaded scenario of a divorce without agreement. After the exit, this would complicate the tough trade negotiations that are coming up with the EU.

In 2017, Theresa May had to partner with the small Northern Unionist party DUP, which had ten ultra-conservative MPs in Westminster. This alliance broke out because of the DUP's refusal to support the divorce agreements negotiated by Theresa May and Boris Johnson.

The DUP opposes provisions to prevent the return of a border between the British province and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, after 20 years of peace ending decades of violence.

>> To read: "In Canterbury, Labor is counting on a new wave of student anti-Brexit"

  • Labor takes power

If an absolute majority seems out of reach for Labor Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition could succeed in robbing Boris Johnson the keys of 10 Downing Street in alliance with the Scottish independence of the SNP, opposed to Brexit.

But he would then face the will of the SNP to hold a referendum on the independence of Scotland, six years after a vote won 55% by the "no".

The radical left-wing personality of Jeremy Corbyn, accused of allowing anti-Semitism to flourish in his party, makes an alliance with the liberal Democrat party's Europhiles very hypothetical. If it comes to power, Labor has promised to renegotiate the agreement reached by Boris Johnson and submit it within six months of coming to power in a new referendum, with another option to stay in the EU.

In this campaign, Jeremy Corbyn announced that he would remain "neutral", to heal the fractures of a country divided by three years of political crisis. Many members of the party leadership announced that they would fight for retention in the European Union.

With AFP

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Source: france24

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