In the report issued by the Arab Strategic Forum, entitled: “11 Questions for the Next Decade”, before the start of its operations in Dubai tomorrow, under the pace of light global recessions, supervisors expected that the world economy will witness a steady growth with light recessions, based on the pace of the global business cycle over the past century. Patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai.

The report, issued by the forum in cooperation with Good Judgment Inc, the world's most accurate institution in geopolitical and economic forecasts, also touched on technical conflicts between China and the United States, the seriousness of the Internet war in the face of large economies, and the potential for American influence to survive known as the “American century” In its political, cultural, military and economic aspects, in light of a multipolar system, countries fragmented as in the Brexit project, the future of OPEC in a global carbon-free economy, and the security risks related to water scarcity in the MENA region, and the impact of search Gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean, off the coast of Cyprus, Lebanon and Egypt in the stability of the region, and the exhaustion of the regime in Iran as a result of economic sanctions, and the pace of proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region.

The head of the Arab Strategic Forum, Mohamed Abdullah Al-Gergawi, said: “The report answers the most important questions on the global and regional scene, and looks for possible scenarios, with the aim of supporting decision-makers’ ability to direct their work in proportion to all future possibilities, and to anticipate global and regional political and economic challenges. ” .

He continued: «Unlike previous years, the reports issued by the Forum this year anticipate the future of the region and the world, during the next 10 years, given the major events witnessed that will leave a significant impact in the future, and despite the rapid developments in events and the difficulty in predicting what is coming, the forum is trying to present Analyzes of events keep pace with the increasing decision makers ’need for future scenarios on which to base their plans.”

The report stated that the increasing tendency of two countries or groups of countries to try to lay the foundations for new regional trade regimes, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership supported by the United States or the European-Asian Economic Union, backed by Russia, would pose a threat to the global trading system.

The report ruled out the possibility that China, Russia, or one of the Group of Seven countries will withdraw from the World Trade Organization by 2030, due to the enjoyment of the benefits that exceed its costs, considering that the pressures that the World Trade Organization is facing in the face of the current populist tendency are the biggest challenge that a regime will face. Global trade in the next 10 years.

The report touched on the most important questions on the world stage about the future of the largest economy in the world since the beginning of the twentieth century, the economy of the United States of America, in light of the formation of a multipolar system and the emergence of many countries and regions, today contribute widely to the international community.

The report said that the most prominent rival countries of the United States, in terms of nominal GDP are China, the countries of the European Union combined, and India, and with the size of the United States economy vis-à-vis the economies of other countries, the United States will be less able to show its strength, solid and soft, around the world.

The report sees 65% chance that the United States’s economy will remain the largest in the world after a decade from now, and 33% chance that it will occupy the second position after China’s economy, while emphasizing that the size of the United States’s economy is currently 1.5 times the economy of China in terms of nominal GDP. And, even assuming that the United States economy will record modest growth rates, and China will, in turn, record rapid growth, it will take more than 10 years for each economy to replace each other in order.

In addition, the report stated that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) currently holds a share of approximately 40% of the total crude oil production in the world, but what is the organization’s future with the emergence of “hydraulic cracking” technology and new oil discoveries outside the Middle East and North Africa region? And government policies around the world so discouraging the use of fossil fuels?

The report expects by 90% that OPEC will supply more than a third of the world's crude oil supplies, a decade from now, and if its financial returns are likely to decrease significantly from its production. Given the organization's resilience and its adaptation to multiple challenges in the past decades, including wars, revolutions and the global recession, the organization is able to survive in a world that is moving towards a carbon-free economy, but new and innovative harmonization measures will need to be found later.

To answer questions about whether major economies are subject to serious cyberattack, the report saw a 66% chance that a cyber attack would cause a major infrastructure system in a G7 country to crash more than one day before 2030.

Under the current circumstances, several systems are vulnerable to such a possible war, including governments, central banks, electric power grids, and financial markets, and some countries may incur huge losses of billions of dollars due to an electronic attack. Satellite systems are highly vulnerable to cyberattacks, but their exceptional importance to advanced economies makes them impregnable. As for the electric power networks, they have proven vulnerable to cyberattacks, and Italy appears more vulnerable here, as it has only two electric power companies, while the other G7 countries have multiple companies, separate from each other.

Otherwise, we find that government operations, capital markets and banking services are all super protected. Even if these three sectors are targeted by fierce attacks, they are protected in every way possible to prevent a country from crashing for more than a day. The paralysis of one of the basic systems in one of the countries of the Group of Seven, but requires the synergy of all national capabilities in a country with the status of China or Russia, and what weakens this possibility is the fact that NATO will assume that launching such an attack is tantamount to declaring war.

However, outside the G7, there are countries that may be more vulnerable. These events should be watched as a harbinger of large-scale attacks elsewhere. For example, in the Philippines, recent government hearings have raised concerns that China could turn off remote energy in the country. The authorities believe that it can restore energy within two days, but there is concern because of the large share of Chinese ownership of the national network of the Philippines, as well as reports that Chinese engineers were able to troubleshoot the network and control it. Weaknesses of this nature to countries outside the Group of Seven pose risks to the global supply chain, which could affect many other economies.

After the discovery of the eastern Mediterranean gas fields off the coast of Cyprus, Lebanon and Egypt, questions arose about whether the eastern Mediterranean gas fields would enhance the stability of the region or would pose a security threat.

The report pointed to the danger that the offshore gas fields would cause disputes between countries over the rights of the disputed drilling, especially since most of the expectations regarding expected energy revenues are large, and will lead to enhancing the region's economic stability, the stability of its countries internally, and the risk of war erupting, and considering The enormous potential of such reserves, countries concerned with promoting the stability of the region should make the development of such resources a priority.

It is estimated that Lebanon's reserves of natural gas in the Levant are approximately 100 trillion cubic feet, which implies the possibility of a major shift in politics in the Levant. It also extends the Levant Basin and the Nile Delta basin to the territorial waters of Cyprus, Turkey and Egypt.

The report suggests that the prospect of a large-scale armed conflict between Israel and Lebanon will decrease by a remarkable rate by 2030, if Lebanon manages to reap the abundant gains of energy production from its share of the large gas fields located in the eastern Mediterranean. But in the event that Lebanon is unable to produce an abundant amount of energy by 2030 (equivalent to 50 billion cubic feet or more of natural gas annually), the report estimates the chance of a war between Lebanon and Israel at about 41%, but if Lebanon is already able to produce an abundant amount Of energy by 2030, the report sees the chance of a war between Lebanon and Israel falling to 14%.

In the wake of evidence indicating regime exhaustion in the country, and with US economic sanctions since its inception in 1979, the report raises the possibility that the sanctions can lead to a change in regime behavior. Sanctions can force Iran to sit at the negotiating table, but at the time By the same token, it appears that Iran has managed to overcome many challenges while pursuing international and regional tensions, although there is a view regarding Iran's need for a more diversified economy and higher productivity. Thus, the status quo is expected to continue in the near future.

The report ruled out water scarcity as an engine for any regional conflict in the MENA region over the next decade. It is expected that the chance of a conflict over the flow of water between Jordan and Israel is likely not to exceed 1%, while the chance of a conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia or Turkey and Iraq over the next decade is 3%.

We can see the same dynamism thousands of miles east, as the many Chinese dams on the upper reaches of the Mekong River severely affect Vietnamese farmers in the Mekong Delta.

While the military asymmetry between China and Vietnam reduces the possibility of conflict between the two countries, the relationship between the forces in Ethiopia and Egypt, and between the forces in Turkey and Iraq, makes it likely that regional leaders will strive to achieve the desired success by waging a short and acute conflict over water.

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in the United States put forward a convincing opinion in 2015, that the prolonged drought in Syria, exacerbated to record levels by global warming, was the reason for the social unrest that later developed into an open uprising against the Assad regime in 2011.

To that, several regions in China, Russia and the United States, and within the European Union, aim to secede, and in this context, the report finds that if we were to see, during the next decade, a political division or fragmentation, the completion of the "Brexit" project and the further disintegration of the union system The Europeans are the least bad options. No matter how troubles the Brexit comes, at least this process will be peaceful. As for a split or fragmentation in China or Russia, in contrast, it will only happen through violence.

The report spoke about the technical disputes between China and the United States, stressing that an already cold war in the field of technology between China and the United States of America, and suggested the possibility of technical conflicts between the two countries transformed into opportunities for cooperation with the development of events, during the next 10 years.

And the report suggested, at 80%, that we will not witness the stage of a “divided Internet”, that is, there will be Internet technology led by the United States, and another led by China by 2030. Much of the information will continue to flow across global networks, even if some political information is blocked or Ideology. Nevertheless, to some extent, a “divided Internet” already exists, with the great firewalls of China, its Internet service providers, and the differing ones.

It is likely that the obstacles hindering the full and free flow of information will increase, but a completely separate Chinese Internet will not appear, with no connection to the rest of the world.

The 11 questions

1- Is global business returning to a steady growth pattern, characterized by short-term recessions?

2- Will the global trading system stand up to the current populist trend?

3- Can technical disputes between the United States and China turn into opportunities for cooperation?

4- Are large economies more vulnerable in the face of cyber war (electronic warfare)?

5- Is the American century, in its political, cultural, military and economic aspects, in a state of decline?

6- After the collapse of the foreign empires in the twentieth century, has the country come to fall apart in the twenty-first century?

7- Is OPEC viable, in light of a global economy heading towards a carbon-neutral economy?

8- Does water scarcity exacerbate the security risks in the MENA region?

9- Will the eastern Mediterranean gas fields located off the coast of Cyprus, Lebanon and Egypt enhance the stability of the region?

10- Will economic sanctions lead to a collapse of government in Iran?

11- Will we see an acceleration in the proliferation of nuclear weapons?

nuclear weapons

The report discussed the acceleration of the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and warned against the use of force and provoking unrest as a result of nuclear competition between countries.

While the world is witnessing another political trend, centered on issues of proliferation of nuclear weapons, especially those related to Iran, the authors of the report were asked about the number of nuclear powers in the MENA region in 2030, and they agreed by an overwhelming majority that Israel would remain a nuclear power, as they agreed that Iran And Saudi Arabia are the two countries most likely to do so, to make attempts to join the nuclear club.

However, any country in the MENA region will follow this path, perhaps risking instability in the most troubled areas of this world. Israel has repeatedly declared that it will attack Iranian facilities if it believes that the ruling regime in Tehran is about to cross the threshold of building nuclear weapons.

Turkey has been silent about an Israeli attack in 2007 on a near-complete Syrian secret reactor, by permitting Israeli warplanes to cross its territory on its way to its targets.

Military powers

The report asked how many other military powers in the MENA region (and their partners outside the region) might also be involved in the use of force to prevent a country it considers an enemy of having nuclear weapons capabilities. While the report considered that the focal points here revolve around Iran and its procedures, to enrich the weapons systems and provide them with fully activated weapons and devices, but he saw that there are other actors that play their role. For example, there is an indication of strong efforts by Turkey to develop ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear weapon. President Erdoانan has expressed his intention, since early 2012, as prime minister, when he ordered the military to develop a ballistic missile. So far, there is no evidence that the Turkish military has actually sought this, but follow-up and oversight is required.

65%

It is an opportunity that the United States economy will remain the largest in the world a decade from now.

1%

It is an opportunity for conflict to break out over the flow of water between Jordan and Israel.

A security risk arising from the discovery of the eastern Mediterranean gas fields, with the possibility of a major shift in politics in the Levant region.

Possible cyber attack, possibly crippling basic infrastructure systems in a G7 country.

Sanctions may lead to a change in the behavior of the Iranian regime, and force it to sit at the negotiating table.

Water scarcity will not be the engine of any regional conflict in the MENA region for the next decade.