Washington (AFP)

Of the world's 900 largest cities, nearly two-thirds (586) will experience an economic slowdown in 2020-21 largely because of international trade, according to a study by Oxford Economics.

In the top 10 largest cities in terms of gross domestic product, only London will be an exception with an acceleration of the expected expansion (+ 2.1% in 2020-2021 against 1.5% in 2018-2019).

Paris will see its growth slow to 1.7%, down 0.2 percentage points.

"In France, Lyon was the star of the country in terms of performance earlier this decade but its growth has also slowed down," write the authors.

New York will not escape deceleration with a projection of 1.8% growth against 2.2%.

- International trade -

"The main reason is clearly the slowdown in global trade," write the authors of the study, noting that many cities around the world have important manufacturing sectors.

They are "therefore directly affected by the slowdown in world trade growth," they continue.

In some cases, the slowdown is more pronounced at the city level than at the country level when manufacturing is an important part of the municipal economy.

Economists cite the example of Barcelona, ​​Spain, where this industry accounts for 19% of the local economy. In Taipei (Taiwan), this sector even accounts for 23%.

The slowdown in the manufacturing sector, however, does not explain everything.

The slowdown in international trade also affects demand for services in particular, travel or insurance, which tend to be concentrated in cities.

"In addition, there are indirect impacts of the slowdown on consumer spending, through wage cuts and job growth," they write.

As for the difficulties of the manufacturing sector, they are not only the result of trade tensions between the United States and its partners, which are weakening trade in the world.

In Europe, some cities, home to major car factories, continue to feel the effects of implementing new anti-pollutant standards in 2018. They must also adapt to changing demand, with consumers turning more to electric or hybrid cars.

Other cities, like Sendai in Japan, are experiencing particular situations: the reconstruction period following natural disasters is nearing completion.

In Latin America, political unrest is affecting the economy of cities. "Caracas is clearly the main city in great distress," says Oxford Economics.

In the United States, San Jose, located in Silicon Valley, could be the city whose slowdown will be the most marked, say the authors of this study.

In Asia, the growth of Chinese cities will also falter while Indian cities are booming. Ho Chi Minh City and Phnom Penh could also be among the top performers for the next two years.

"By 2035, Asian cities will have globally overtaken North American and European cities," the economists summarize. "Four Chinese cities will be in the top 10, but New York, Tokyo, Los Angeles and London will remain the largest in the world in terms of GDP."

© 2019 AFP