• Istat: over 3 million Italians with disabilities, half are elderly
  • Work, Istat: + 46 thousand employed in October, + 217 thousand in the year
  • GDP, Istat confirms: in the third quarter + 0.1%, on an annual basis increase of 0.3%

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December 04, 2019The gross domestic product in real terms is expected to rise by 0.2% in 2019, "in a decided slowdown" compared to last year (+ 0.8%). Thus Istat in the "prospects for the Italian economy", limiting the estimate released in the spring (+ 0.3% for 2019). Instead, growth would be "slightly accelerating in 2020", with an increase of 0.6%.

In 2019, Istat explains, "domestic demand net of inventories would provide a positive contribution to GDP growth of 0.8 percentage points; the contribution of net foreign demand would be moderately positive (+0.2 percentage points) while the change in stocks would provide a largely negative impulse (-0.8 points) ". The latter figure could be weighed down by the low level of confidence that is characterizing the business world in recent months. In general, the Institute speaks of a growth that is "moderate" in Italy. In detail, "in the last part of the year, the evolution of GDP is expected to continue at the pace of the previous months". In 2020, it is highlighted, "the GDP growth rate is expected to accelerate slightly (+ 0.6%) compared to 2019, supported by consumption and investments, despite a slowdown in growth estimated for the latter". Focusing precisely on investments, Istat notes that in 2020 "would be affected by the slow growth of world trade" but "will benefit from the reintroduction of hyper and super-amortization incentives and the continuation of an expansive monetary policy on the part of the ECB".

Risks from duties
"The current scenario of" growth "is characterized by some downside risks represented by possible negative evolution of tariff conflicts and geopolitical turbulence with unfavorable effects on the evolution of international trade and on the level of uncertainty of the operators".

Investments remain positive but slowing down
In Italy, gross fixed investments "show a slowing profile": in 2019 growth will stop at 2.2% (from 3.2% in 2018). This is what the Istat expects. In 2020 it will not go beyond 1.7%. "The deceleration of investments is mainly driven by the limited growth of the machinery component", explains Istat.

Unemployment 2019 drops to 10%, 2020 to 9.9%
The unemployment rate this year would mark "a marked improvement", reaching 10.0% (from 10.6% in 2018). Thus the Istat in the 'prospects for the Italian economy'. In 2020 the indicator would fall "marginally", to 9.9%. The Institute therefore envisages "the continuation of the positive dynamics of the labor market".

Slow down household spending, saving rooms
"For 2019 an increase in household consumption in real terms (+ 0.6%) is expected to slow down compared to the previous year, which would be accompanied by a marked increase in the propensity to save". Thus the Istat in the 'prospects for the Italian economy'. In 2020, spending growth "is expected to be of the same intensity (+ 0.6%), supported by improvements in the labor market".