Although the main declared reasons for the current protests in Iran since November 15 are the same motives that contributed to the escalation of demonstrations on December 28, 2017, this does not deny that there are many differences between the two events, perhaps the time frame is changing The most important distinction between them is that the current protests come under very difficult circumstances facing Iran on the internal and external arenas, which imposes ambiguity about its possible paths, and whether it can gradually decrease its intensity, as happened at the end of 2017. Or can they develop into a stage or Another unprecedented level poses a real challenge to the regime.

Early escalation

Perhaps the most important characteristic of the current protests in Iran, and the stated reason for the objection to the increase in fuel prices, is the remarkable and early escalation, which was evident in several indicators, including the death toll, according to various reports, in the first three days, the 30th barrier, The number of detainees reached more than 1000, with economic facilities subjected to acts of sabotage and restrictions on the Internet and social networking sites.

Although such events do not reflect a new phenomenon in the successive protests in Iran, the high level of escalation in early remains a distinctive sign, in a way that can not be separated from the current pressures facing the Iranian regime, which may be unprecedented. For him.

Hence, it can be said that the current protests are similar to the ones that occurred in the past in terms of the reasons for the outbreak, without denying that there are several axes of difference between the parties, can be addressed as follows:

Chronic economic crisis

Although the protests in December 2017 came on economic grounds as well, they were not paralleled by strong economic pressures facing the regime. At this time, the United States had not withdrawn from the nuclear deal or imposed sanctions on Iran.It began taking these measures on May 8, 2018, meaning that Iran had the ability to export its oil and get its cash in return, in parallel with the improvement of its relations. With European countries. Several estimates indicate that Iran's revenue from its oil exports, which before May 2018 was more than 2.6 million barrels per day, amounted to about $ 50 billion.

But at the moment, the situation looks very different.In addition, the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal on May 8, 2018, and imposed sanctions against Iran in two stages on August 7 and November 5 of the same year, followed by a series of sanctions. Other military and political officials, in parallel with the cancellation of exemptions granted by the Trump administration to eight countries that were importing Iranian oil on April 22, 2019, have contributed to reducing Iran's oil exports from around 2.6 million barrels before May 2018 to 160,000 barrels. In August 2019.

Unprecedented external pressures

Iran has never faced this level of regional and international pressure as it appears at the moment. The escalation with the United States has almost evolved into the use of military force, especially after Iranian ground defenses shot down a US drone on June 20. 2019.

Relations between Iran and European countries have also reached an unprecedented level of tension, having improved significantly in 2016 and 2017, evident in President Hassan Rouhani's repeated visits to some European countries, such as France and Italy, as well as the Vatican. This is because of the escalating measures that Iran continues to take, especially in terms of reducing the level of its nuclear obligations, most recently the re-enrichment of uranium in the Fordow reactor.

Hence, the withdrawal of some of these countries from the nuclear agreement, such as the step taken by the United States of America, after it realized that the continuation of work will not achieve the objectives sought through it, as the Iranian measures emptied it of its content.

Severe internal conflicts

When the protests erupted in December 2017, Iran had completed the presidential election, and before the legislative elections, the results of which resulted in the moderate movement, which includes forces of traditional conservatives and reformists, outstanding results, which was evident in obtaining a large proportion of seats in the Council Al-Shoura, in parallel with President Hassan Rouhani's victory in a second term, over one of the most prominent symbols of the fundamentalist conservative movement, the current head of the judiciary, Ibrahim Raisi, who is reported to be among the list of candidates to succeed the Iranian leader, Ali Khamenei Rabah is largely from the leader, and his success in establishing strong relations with the institutions in force in the system, especially the Revolutionary Guards.

Now, the current protests erupted shortly before the next legislative and presidential elections, with legislative elections to be held in February 2020, followed by presidential elections in the spring of 2021.

Here, the fundamentalist conservative movement seeks to consolidate its influence within the decision-making centers of the regime by achieving strong results in these benefits, as it will try to restore the majority within the Shura Council, and win the post of President of the Republic, which will not be held by President Rouhani for a third term, where he is not allowed The constitution is running for a third consecutive term, in a way that puts the moderates in a real stalemate, as a result of the absence of a consensual figure that could be unanimously agreed upon by the main powers in it, to continue to consolidate his control of the post.

This may explain, to a large extent, why several trends are keen to point out that the practices of some regime institutions have exacerbated the current protests, such as the Revolutionary Guard, which is involved in fuel smuggling into neighboring countries, because of the cheap price of Iranian fuel. It is estimated that between 10 and 20 million liters are smuggled daily.

Nor can it be ruled out that fundamentalist conservative forces tend to use the current protests to exert a higher level of pressure on Rouhani, apparently in his attempts to summon him before the Shura Council, suggesting that she is trying to use the current protests to enhance her chances of winning future political entitlements.

In the end, what is happening in Iran offers an important indication that the regime's security approach to dealing with the protests has not produced significant results, as new protests have escalated and become a major feature of Iranian internal interactions over the last decade.

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$ 1 billion in revenue from Iran's oil exports.

Although such events do not reflect a new phenomenon in the ongoing protests in Iran, the high level of escalation in early remains a distinctive sign, in a way that can not be separated from the current pressures facing the Iranian regime, which may be unprecedented. For him. The withdrawal of some of these countries from the nuclear agreement, similar to the step taken by the United States of America, after it realized that the continuation of work will not achieve the goals it was seeking, as the Iranian procedures emptied it of its content.

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One million liters of fuel are smuggled daily to neighboring countries with the participation of the Revolutionary Guards.