30 years after the end of the Cold War A new struggle between major powers Concerns about global division and arms race December 3rd 8:22
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It will be 30 years in three days when the leaders of the US and Soviet Union declared the end of the Cold War. While the United States is trying to build an international order led by the United States after the Cold War, Russia and China have recently clarified their stance against the United States, and new wars between major powers may again lead to global division and arms races There are concerns.
On December 3, 1989, US President George W. Bush and Soviet Secretary Gorbachev met in Malta in the Mediterranean to declare the end of the East-West Cold War, which resulted in the division of the world after World War II in a conflict between the two countries. Did.
After that, the United States became the world's only superpower and built an American-led international order based on the values of freedom and democracy. After the 2001 terrorist attacks, the Iraq war, the Lehman shock, etc. The position fluctuated.
Under these circumstances, the presence of Russia, led by President Putin, who promoted “strong resurrection of Russia”, and China, which became the world's second largest economic power, increased its military power rapidly.
While the United States has announced that the new national security strategy between Russia and China is the biggest threat and has increased pressure on both countries, Russia and China have recently strengthened collaboration. , Has a clear attitude to the American-led international order.
As a result, the US-Russia nuclear disarmament treaty, which played a significant role in the reduction of nuclear weapons after the end of the Cold War, expired due to the conflict between the two countries, and while the framework for nuclear disarmament was lost, We are introducing it.
Furthermore, the development competition between the US, China and Russia has spread to new spaces such as the universe and cyber space.
The new struggle between the great powers, which has been fierce in the 30 years since the end of the Cold War, is also called the “New Cold War”, and there is a concern that it may lead to the division of the world and the arms race again.
Cold War and its end
The confrontation between the western capitalist camp centering on the US and the eastern socialist camp centering on the former Soviet Union is called the “Cold War” and begins after the Second World War.
The former Soviet Union established a socialist regime in Eastern European countries after the war and incorporated it under its own influence.
In response, the United States announced the “Marshall Plan” in 1947 and rushed the economic recovery of Western Europe.
Furthermore, the United States and the former Soviet Union will each form a military alliance and deepen the conflict.
In 1949, the Western countries centering on the United States formed the NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization. In 1955, the Warsaw Treaty Organization was born, centering on the former Soviet Union.
Under such circumstances, the forefront of the Cold War was Germany, which was divided and ruled by the victorious countries.
It was divided into two countries, West Germany supported by the West and East Germany on the former Soviet side, and the capital Berlin was divided into East and West.
In 1961, East Germany built the “Berlin Wall” to surround West Berlin and became a symbol of the Cold War.
The US and Soviet countries will continue to develop nuclear weapons one after another, and the arms race will intensify. In 1962, when the former Soviet Union attempted to build a missile base in Cuba, which joined the socialist camp, the `` Cuban crisis '', where the conflict with the United States intensified, occurred, and the world faced a crisis of nuclear war. did.
In various parts of the world, the US and Soviet proxy wars began, including the Korean War and the Vietnam War, and many civilians were involved and many victims came out.
Long-term conflicts between the two sides impose a significant economic burden on both sides. Especially in the former Soviet Union, the industrial structure was delayed and the economy stagnated, and the gap with the West expanded.
General Secretary Gorbachev, who took office in 1985, promoted a reform called Perestroika.
In 1987, the United States and the Soviet Union embarked on nuclear disarmament, and concluded an abolition treaty for INF = medium-range nuclear missiles.
In 1989, following the democratization movement that spread in Eastern European countries, the Berlin Wall collapsed on November 9, and President Bush and Secretary General Gorbachev met in Malta on December 3 in the Cold War. Declared the end of.
America's relationship with Russia "Worst" after the Cold War
While the United States and Russia have promoted the reduction of nuclear weapons in the 30 years after the end of the Cold War, in recent years there has been a deepening conflict in the fields of diplomacy and security, and the relationship between the two countries has become cold enough to be said to be the worst after the Cold War.
After the end of the Cold War, the United States, which became the only superpower in the world, will expand its influence centered on NATO.
As a result, the former Soviet countries such as the three Baltic countries joined NATO one after another, and the United States will deepen its ties with Eastern European countries and proceed with the deployment of missile defense systems.
On the other hand, Russia, which transitioned from the Soviet Union that collapsed in 1991, two years after the end of the Cold War, has strengthened its opposition to the United States with the “strong revival of Russia” since the appointment of President Putin in 2000. The
Russia will take a hard-lined diplomatic and security stance, and in 2008 it will militaryally invade Georgia, which had been aiming to join NATO. In 2014, it will merge Ukraine's Crimea.
Furthermore, the suspicion that Russia intervened in the 2016 US presidential election became clear, and the conflict between the US and Russia became decisive.
President Trump urged restructuring of his relations with Russia, but in response to concerns about Russia growing in the country, he issued sanctions one after another for intervention in the presidential election, and INF was one of the pillars of nuclear disarmament. The abolition of the treaty was abolished, and the relationship between the two countries was so cold that it was said to be the worst after the Cold War, and there are no signs of improvement.
The framework of nuclear disarmament between our two countries
The relationship between the United States and Russia has cooled in the 30 years since the end of the Cold War, and now it is said to be the worst, and the world's security environment has deteriorated rapidly.
Of particular concern is the fact that the nuclear disarmament frameworks of both countries, which hold more than 90% of the 14,000 nuclear warheads on the planet, are in danger.
President Trump of the United States announced the destruction of the INF abolition treaty, which was one of the pillars of nuclear disarmament, because of Russia's nuclear missile development, and the treaty expired in August.
Furthermore, at the last nuclear disarmament treaty that remains between the United States and Russia, “New START”, which stipulates the reduction of strategic nuclear warheads, will expire in February next year, and the US insists that China also participate in the treaty. As a result, negotiations for extension have stagnated and there is a growing risk of expiration.
The U.S. and Russia, which deepen the conflict, started to develop more modern new types of nuclear weapons such as small nuclear warheads and supersonic weapons with reduced output, and to fight each other, using nuclear weapons in localized attacks There is also growing concern about whether or not it exists.
191 countries and regions that are members of the NPT = Proliferation Prevention Treaty, which stipulates the prevention of proliferation of nuclear weapons and the promotion of nuclear disarmament, hold a reconsideration meeting once every five years next year to discuss the future direction of nuclear disarmament. To do.
However, the current situation in which the three military powers of the United States, Russia, and China are urgently developing nuclear weapons is said to be the beginning of a new arms race, and there is a dark cloud in the future of nuclear disarmament.
70 years since its establishment
NATO has reached a milestone of 30 years since the end of the Cold War and 70 years since its establishment.
At NATO, the Russian threat became stronger after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine five years ago, and cooperation was re-investigated.
For this reason, we have decided to build a ready-to-ready system to quickly deploy troops in the event of an emergency and create new headquarters in the United States and Germany.
China is also wary of rapidly modernizing military technology and expanding its scope of activity. In addition, we have decided to make the universe the active area because artificial satellites will be aimed at in the future and social life may be affected.
On the other hand, there is a conspicuous situation among the leaders of each country. President Trump of the United States has urged each country to raise defense costs as “the burden of the United States is heavy”.
Also, in October, President Macron of France has made prior adjustments with NATO when President Trump ordered the withdrawal of troops from northern Syria, or when Turkey deployed military operations against Kurdish forces. He criticized that he did not, and expressed his sense of crisis by saying, “NATO is in a brain-dead state”.
On the other hand, Turkish President Erdogan rebelled strongly in a speech in Istanbul saying, “You should check if you are not brain dead.” In the Cold War era, the US-led military alliance NATO was established to compete with the former Soviet Union, but now it is a big challenge to show the significance of existence and the unity of the alliance.
“End clock” in the shortest 2 minutes
After the end of the Cold War, the “End Clock”, which symbolizes the remaining time until the last day of the Earth, became “17 minutes” once, but expectations for peace after the Cold War increased. The situation has deteriorated due to the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the spread of nuclear weapons, and now it represents “2 minutes”, which is the shortest ever-confused international situation.
The American science magazine Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces the time of an “end clock” that symbolizes the time remaining until the last day of the earth.
According to it, in response to the Declaration of the end of the Cold War 30 years ago, the remaining time was reduced from 6 minutes to 10 minutes in 1990, and back to 17 minutes in 1991 the following year, raising expectations for peace after the Cold War. .
At that time, an American scientific magazine evaluated that the disarmament of nuclear weapons that had lasted for 40 years has ended and disarmament is progressing. The world is fundamentally changing in a good direction. Welcomed
However, after that, nuclear proliferation problems such as nuclear tests in India and Pakistan, nuclear development in North Korea and Iran became more serious, and as a result of a series of terrorist attacks, Iraq war and Syrian civil war, etc. The remaining time continued to shrink.
Furthermore, the remaining two years last year are due to the fact that the Trump administration is reluctant to nuclear disarmament, such as the abolition of the INF abolition treaty, and measures against global warming, which has become a new threat, are delayed. Is "2 minutes".
The remaining two minutes represent the international situation that is the shortest in the past, along with 1953, when the nuclear test competition between the United States and the former Soviet Union was overheated during the Cold War, and turned into a confusing international situation after the Cold War.
Gorbachev resumes cooperation to abolish nuclear weapons
Former Soviet Gorbachev, who declared the end of the Cold War 30 years ago, expressed concern in the current world situation, also called the "New Cold War", in an interview with a Maltese newspaper in the Mediterranean, where the declaration was made He also appealed to President Trump and President Putin that in the former Maltese spirit, cooperation should be resumed to abolish nuclear weapons.
Former Soviet Gorbachev, who declared the end of the Cold War as US President Bush, responded to an interview with a Maltese newspaper in the Mediterranean, which was held 30 days after the declaration. Was published.
In this, Mr. Gorbachev said, “The end of the Cold War was our common achievement. I think leaders who tried to end the conflict acted with courage and responsibility,” let ’s overcome the conflict. He talked about the feelings of the leaders at that time.
On top of that, he said, “I am worried about many things that are happening in the world now,” and expressed concern about the new conflict, also known as the “New Cold War.”
“I want to encourage the world leaders to resume cooperation in the spirit of Malta. Each of us should think about what we can do to maintain peace and move towards a world free of nuclear weapons. "We shouldn't go down the hill," he urged world leaders such as President Trump and Putin to resume cooperation to abolish nuclear weapons.
Expert "A colder war has begun than the former Cold War"
Professor Vladimir Khojin of Moscow International University, which is familiar with Russian diplomacy, pointed out, “The relationship with the United States is more seriously collapsed than stagnation. A colder war has begun than the former Cold War,” He showed that he was getting worse.
On top of that, "The United States wants to keep Russia as a second-class state. It wants to build an opposition that can overthrow Putin's administration in Russia. He pointed out that in order to improve the relationship, the United States should create an environment where the policy of hostility toward Russia is discussed on an equal footing.
As for future US-Russia relations, he said, “I don't have a chance to improve the relations. But I would like to see what happens if President Trump is re-elected next year.” He expressed his view that it was greatly influenced by the whereabouts of the situation.