Paris (AFP)

One after the other, the polls draw a new bipolarization of French political life between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, the finalists of the 2017 presidential elections. The persistence of this duel intrigues experts and politicians, between the hypothesis of a new struggle classes and concerns for democracy.

Q: How did the duel get settled?

"It's the failure of the government parties to transform the country, to honor their promises," according to IFPF deputy director Frédéric Dabi and the subsequent collapse of the PS and LR that allowed the breakthrough of Mr. Macron and confirmed that of Mrs. Le Pen.

Frédéric Dabi sees "similar phenomena" in Germany, Italy or Greece, even if "the RN phenomenon is very much earlier".

The result of the May Europeans - the RN in the lead, LREM to one point, and all the other parties far behind - confirmed the duel. Now, half-way between 2017 and 2022, the two sides have "an interest in not having any adversary in terms of management or a hostile opponent of discontent," the expert continues.

Q: Is this a sustainable phenomenon?

Yes, in the absence of alternatives and because "the time needed to reconstitute a militant apparatus (for the PS and LR) is long enough," notes the political scientist Jean-Yves Camus.

But "things are not completely frozen" according to Mr. Dabi, who notes that the vote of employees is divided into two halves equal to the second round.

The French do not want a duel either, he believes: "All this should encourage us to be cautious".

Q: Does it reflect a form of class struggle?

Jérôme Sainte-Marie, author of "Bloc contre Bloc" (Le Cerf, November 2019), divides the electorate today into a pro-Macron "elite bloc" made up of the richest, senior executives and retirees, and a "People's Bloc" is made up of small entrepreneurs, artisan-traders and private enforcement employees who vote Le Pen.

The first camp would aim at "adapting a social model to the constraints of globalization" when the latter would "preserve a national identity against migratory phenomena".

Mr Dabi also sees a form of class struggle, "which had been mitigated in the left-right divide, where well-to-do categories could vote on the left and popular categories could vote on the right."

Jérôme Fourquet, author of "The French Archipelago" (Seuil, March 2019), considers that the situation is "more complex" because "the popular bloc is very heterogeneous", and "that a large part of the middle class is not enough in the mouise to want to turn over the table ". However, he admits that Mr. Macron and Mrs. Le Pen "realign the political cleavage on a cleavage of classes".

Q: Is it dangerous for democracy?

Reducing political life to a duel is a "danger for democracy", assures Senate Speaker Gérard Larcher LR, who defends the existence of "a political space" between LREM and the RN.

"The quinquennium will be successful if we manage to get out of this duopoly between the Republic on the move and the extreme right," said Philippe Grangeon, an adviser close to Emmanuel Macron, in a portrait that devotes Le Monde Friday: "So we need real counter-powers, opposition parties worthy of the name, and that's a living democracy."

The duel Macron-Le Pen "is a very dangerous game," laments the environmentalist David Cormand (EELV), for whom it "needs a solution that Macron in 2022 if we want to be sure that Ms. Le Pen does not win." And to believe the former LR Valerie Pécresse (Free!), "We will go bankrupt and perhaps also civil war" if Marine Le Pen comes to power.

Frédéric Dabi reminds him that the French consider that "democracy works badly" not because of this duel, but because of "the increasing powerlessness of the policy to respect its promises".

© 2019 AFP