The general (presidential and parliamentary) elections in Bolivia will be held in mid-March 2020. This was reported by Herges Hustinian - the head of the administration of the interim president of the country, Janine Agnes.
“According to my calculations, the first round of elections will be held in mid-March, which is good for a country that wants to finally express its opinion and decide who will be the next president,” he said in an interview with Dia.
Janine Agnes signed the law on general (parliamentary and presidential) elections on November 24. The date of their holding, in accordance with the 169th article of the Constitution of Bolivia, should be set within 90 days from the moment of assuming the post of interim president of the country. Agnes was proclaimed head of state on November 13th.
According to Justiniano, the election campaign for the congress (parliament) and the president will begin "approximately December 23".
The main intrigue of the upcoming elections is what result the supporters of Evo Morales will show on them. His party “Movement to Socialism” (Movimiento al Socialismo, abbreviated as MAS) is not forbidden to participate in the election campaign and stand for its own candidates, including for the presidency. The most likely candidate for the post of head of state from the left is experts associate Morales, vice president of the coca producers federation, 30-year-old Andronico Rodriguez.
In an interview with Sputnik, he admitted that he would take part in the presidential election, making a reservation that MAS had not yet formally decided on the candidate.
“If I am supported by the leading organizations of the Movement to Socialism at the national level and President Evo (Morales - approx. RT ), then there will be no other way,” Rodriguez said.
According to him, the party will determine its candidate in the next 5-8 days.
Recall that in the presidential election in October, Morales won about 45% of the vote, taking first place, which according to Bolivian laws is enough to win. However, his rival, Carlos Mesa, did not admit defeat, his supporters began protests, which led to a change of power. Morales is currently in exile in Mexico, where he was granted political asylum.
Calming the country
Opinion polls on the popularity of a candidate in Bolivia are not published now. However, experts are sure that MAS did not lose the high rating at all. The editor-in-chief of Latin America magazine Vladimir Travkin, in a commentary by RT, draws attention to the fact that the ideas of Morales are still popular.
- Andronico Rodriguez
- Reuters
- © Danilo Balderrama
First of all, he is supported by Indians, who make up more than half of the country's population and the majority among the protesting supporters of the deposed head of state, he says.
Experts consider it important that the new authorities in Bolivia passed a law that did not allow Morales to run for president again (since he held this post for two consecutive terms), but they did not deprive MAS of the opportunity to participate in new elections. This is what will allow ending the period of instability in the country, analysts say.
“If MAS candidates are admitted before the election, this in itself should calm the situation. There are no political conditions for escalation. The fact that the estimated date of the election is called is, of course, an additional stabilizing factor. From the very beginning of the crisis, elections were a stumbling block. If they take place and all political forces accept their conditions, this will help calm the country, ”said Tatyana Vorotnikova, senior researcher at the Center for Political Studies of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
In turn, MGIMO professor Vladimir Sudarev in an interview with RT stressed that the new authorities did not immediately understand what needs to be done to stabilize the situation.
“When Morales left for Mexico, Bolivia was on the verge of a civil war. Agnes made a serious mistake: she stated that the police had the right to open fire to defeat while suppressing unrest. It could blow things up. There were already more than 20 dead. However, now the authorities have come to their senses, forbidden the police to shoot and generally somehow try to calm both the world community and the situation inside the country. They want to show that the country is undergoing a normal legitimate process of changing power, ”said the expert.
Chances to win
The upcoming presidential elections will be a kind of continuation of the October elections, experts say, as voters will again actually vote not for any names on the electoral list, but for or against Morales and his course.
- Evo Morales in Mexico
- Reuters
- © Luis Cortes
“Indirectly, Morales continues, one way or another, to play a role in Bolivian politics. It’s important who he will support, ”says Vorotnikova.
The same Rodriguez, experts say, is a well-known trade union leader. His union enjoys great influence in rural areas and has played a key role in protests against the new authorities. Rodriguez positions himself as a person of Morales and clearly intends to use his authority in his election campaign, analysts say.
"I saw that some international media often call me (the leader of the MAS and the presidential candidate - approx. RT) , but much will depend on the approval of President Evo Morales himself, who is also the party leader at the national level," Rodriguez said in an interview Sputnik.
At the same time, experts believe that Morales will try to "go into the shadows" during these elections: he will designate his support for one candidate or another, but he will not become too active in the election campaign. In addition, he is unlikely to try to come to Bolivia.
“I think that Evo Morales can return to Bolivian politics, but not in the near future. Everything, of course, will depend on who wins the election. So far, the candidates are not clear, and it is not clear who will run for the right-wing forces. If they are nominated by Carlos Mesu - this is one story. If right-wing conservative leaders who have ratings become candidates, this is a different reversal, ”said Vorotnikova.
Sudarev suggested that opponents of the “Movement to Socialism” will again be grouped around Carlos Mesa, a man of moderately right, almost left-wing views, and at the same time quite popular and popular.
“I think he has a good chance of winning,” the expert believes.
Thus, it is possible that in March Rodriguez and Mesa will compete for the top post.
At the same time, analysts unanimously exclude the option in which a power seizure of power will take place in Bolivia before or after spring.
“Until the election, Janine Agnes is likely to remain in power. Any coup, military or with the participation of the streets, is unlikely. Power structures are under her control, ”concludes Vorotnikova.