“Leaving without losing face”: can the United States and the Taliban agree on peace in Afghanistan

The US and the Taliban may resume negotiations that were interrupted in September for a peaceful settlement of the Afghan conflict, White House head Donald Trump said during his visit to the US air base in Afghanistan. However, the Taliban refused to confirm this information - the leadership of the radical group believes that it is too early to talk about a new start to the talks.

Unexpected visit

The day before, the head of the White House arrived in Afghanistan on an unannounced visit, where he met with his Afghan counterpart Ashraf Ghani and delivered a congratulatory speech on the occasion of Thanksgiving to the US Air Force base Bagram.

This is Donald Trump's first trip to the Asian Republic since he took office. Preparations for this visit were carried out in secret conditions for security reasons.

• Reuters
• © Tom Brenner

The unexpected visit of the head of the United States was his second sudden appearance at the Pentagon's foreign base - in December 2018, the American leader flew to the US Air Force base, Ain al-Assad, in Iraq. Moreover, the Iraqi authorities were warned about the arrival of the American leader in the country only a few hours before the presidential plane landed on Iraqi soil.

According to the American media, Trump’s current Thanksgiving trip to Afghanistan came as a surprise to the U.S. military and a sign of gratitude for their service.

However, the head of the White House did not stop at congratulating the military. In his speech, Trump said that the Taliban want to conclude a peace agreement with Washington, however, according to the American president, this will become possible only in the event of a ceasefire.

“The Taliban want to make a deal, and as part of our meetings, we tell them that this should be done through a ceasefire. They did not want to cease fire, but now they want. And I believe that this will probably work, ”Trump said.

The head of the White House added that the American side could "go much further" in reducing the number of US troops in Afghanistan, but the situation will remain under their control.

“Do not hesitate, my administration will always strive to exterminate terrorists wherever they appear,” Trump said and, addressing the military, he added that he was looking forward to the day when the United States could ensure that each of them returned home safely.

However, representatives of the Taliban found the statement by the head of the White House to resume negotiations premature.

“Talking about the resumption of negotiations is now too early. Our official reaction will follow later, ”Zabiulla Mujahid, a representative of the organization, told AFP reporters.

Resurrection of negotiations

Recall that the US administration has been negotiating with representatives of the Taliban since early January. The delegation of Islamists is led by field commander Abdul Gani Baradar, US chief negotiator and US special representative for Afghan reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad.

Over the past period, delegations held several rounds of negotiations in Doha. During the last round, September 1, 2019, Zalmay Khalilzad told reporters that the parties were able to discuss the preconditions for a possible agreement. One of them could be the withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from Afghanistan within 135 days. In total, there are about 14 thousand US troops in Afghanistan.

• Taliban fighters
• Reuters
• © Ahmad Nadeem

However, after a few days, the negotiation process between the Taliban and the United States stopped - Donald Trump canceled the consultations of the parties scheduled for September 8, which were, according to him, to be held in the suburban residence of the American leader in Camp David.

As the head of the White House wrote on Twitter, “almost no one knew about the upcoming talks,” it was planned that the Taliban leaders and the Afghan president would come to Camp David to negotiate with the American president.

Unbeknownst to almost everyone, the major Taliban leaders and, separately, the President of Afghanistan, were going to secretly meet with me at Camp David on Sunday. They were coming to the United States tonight. Unfortunately, in order to build false leverage, they admitted to ..

“Unfortunately, in order to create imaginary leverage, they claimed responsibility for the attack in Kabul, which killed one of our wonderful soldiers and another 11 people. I immediately canceled the meeting and refused the peace talks, ”Trump wrote.

We are talking about the September 5 terrorist attack in the Afghan capital, which killed an American soldier, 34-year-old first-class sergeant Alice Barreto Ortiz. The Taliban took responsibility for what happened.

Commenting on the subsequent termination of the dialogue with the Taliban, Trump said that these negotiations are “dead”.

“As for me, I consider them (negotiations. - RT ) dead. They are dead, ”Trump emphasized.

However, already in October, the head of the Pentagon, Mark Esper, arrived in Afghanistan to work on contacts with the Taliban. During his visit, the US Secretary of Defense said that the United States could reduce the number of troops in the country to 8,600 troops without prejudice to the implementation of anti-terrorist operations. At the same time, Esper emphasized that the withdrawal of troops can only take place within the framework of a peace agreement with the Taliban.

For their part, the Taliban agreed to release from captivity two teachers at the American University of Afghanistan, who had been in prison for about three years. Together with scientists, the Taliban handed over to the authorities ten officers of the Afghan government army, who were also in captivity. In exchange, the Taliban received their leaders: Anas Haqqani, Haji Mali Khan and Hafiz Rashid, who were being held in prison at Bagram base.

“They can and still wait”

As General Mark Millie, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, said the day before, the successful exchange of prisoners gives grounds for optimism about negotiations with the Taliban.

Earlier, a similar senior point of view was expressed in a conversation with reporters by a former senior Taliban activist, Maulavi Kalamuddin Momand. According to him, now the Americans simply have no other choice but to sign a peace agreement, since in 18 years the States have not been able to win in Afghanistan.

• US Army Soldiers in Afghanistan
• Reuters
• © Baz Ratner

“The United States froze the negotiations, but it was in vain, and now they regret it. This time, negotiations are being held in earnest. They will be successful and will lead to the signing of an agreement, ”the Afghanistan newspaper quoted the ex-Taliban as saying.

The Taliban are truly convinced that time works for them, said Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies.

“They have been waging a war against the United States for so long that they can still wait if they are not satisfied with the proposed conditions. For them, the signing of a peace agreement is equal to their final victory - after the withdrawal of American forces, the Taliban will immediately seize power in Afghanistan. And agreements with Washington are needed only to allow the Americans to leave without losing their face, relatively beautifully, ”the expert believes.

With the opinion of Bruter, the expert of the Center for Contemporary Studies of Afghanistan, Natalia Khanova, agrees. In her opinion, the situation with the Afghan settlement remains difficult, since the Taliban are not ready to make concessions and sign an agreement that does not imply a complete withdrawal of US forces from the country.

“In the event that the States withdraw their contingent from Afghanistan, the Taliban will have the opportunity to seize new territories and challenge official Kabul. However, for its part, the US administration is not ready to agree to such conditions, ”Khanova said in an interview with RT.

As for Trump's sudden visit to Afghanistan and his words about the Taliban’s desire to sign a peace treaty with Washington, they should be considered in the context of the election campaign that has already started in the United States, analysts say.

“It was the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the cessation of the nearly twenty-year military campaign that was one of Trump’s promises, and he seeks to show that he intends to fulfill it,” Vladimir Bruter explained in an interview with RT.

A similar point of view is shared by Natalia Khanova.

“The visit of the American leader is evidence of his confidence in the completion of the Afghan company. Trump paid a lot of attention to negotiations with Pyongyang, but Afghanistan is a more important and painful issue for American society, ”the expert summed up.

* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.