The commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 project will jeopardize the stability of gas supplies to European countries. This opinion was expressed in an interview with Deutsche Welle by the executive director of Naftogaz Yuri Vitrenko. According to him, a change in the direction of gas supplies may lead to the cessation of regular transit.

“Transit revenues are very significant for the Ukrainian economy, and the entire Ukrainian and East European gas market was formed on the expectation that gas will go from east to west. And such radical changes - now gas must go from west to east, to eastern Ukraine at least - this is a threat to the stability of supplies in the region. And Germany, as one of the leaders of the European Union, should be aware of this, ”Vitrenko said.

The representative of Naftogaz also noted that Russia's decision to “bypass Ukraine through the construction of Nord Stream-2” is political, not economic.

“With the launch of Nord Stream 2, we can expect that there will be no transit through Ukraine. And Germany should understand that it thus contributes to the economic strangulation of Ukraine, ”he said.

Vitrenko’s statement came amid reports that the construction of the pipeline was coming to an end. On November 28, Danish permission to implement this project in the territorial waters of the kingdom came into effect. The Danish Energy Agency (DEA) said that the laying of a site in the territorial waters of Denmark could already be started.

“The appeal deadline ends November 27, 2019 at 23:59. On November 28, a company can start acting according to permission if it has fulfilled the relevant conditions, ”the regulator said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

Prior to that date, the Danish Board of Appeal could consider complaints about the Nord Stream 2 decision if they had arrived. Earlier, the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy Aleksey Orzhel announced plans to take this opportunity. Last week, he said that Kiev could challenge the decision of the DEA, arguing its position with an environmental aspect. However, Nord Stream 2 AG stated that Copenhagen had given permission by carefully analyzing the environmental impact of the project.

  • Worker is laying the Nord Stream 2 pipeline
  • Reuters
  • © Stine Jacobsen

Recall that in the framework of the Nord Stream 2 project, two pipelines of the gas pipeline are being built, with a total capacity of 55 billion cubic meters. m per year. Pipes will connect the coasts of Russia and Germany through the Baltic Sea. At the same time, the pipeline also passes through territorial waters or the exclusive economic zones of Finland, Sweden and Denmark.

“Not true”

According to Anna Kokoreva, senior analyst at Coface international insurance company, Naftogaz’s executive director is wrong in asserting that the launch of Nord Stream 2 allegedly poses a threat to the stability of gas supplies to European countries.

“These are all far-fetched arguments from the Ukrainian side. Russia is interested in ensuring that supplies are not interrupted. Moscow is making every effort for this. That is why Nord Stream 2 is being built in order to maintain supplies and increase them. At the same time, Vitrenko forgot to mention that the desire of Russia to supply gas through alternative channels appeared after Naftogaz started to blackmail Gazprom, which just jeopardized the stability of gas supplies to Europe, ”the expert noted.

Naftogaz just now again began to make indictments against Nord Stream-2, because they “understand that they are losing” (the project is at the final stage of implementation) and are trying to drag out time in this way, Kokoreva believes. Meanwhile, according to the analyst, the representative of the Ukrainian oil and gas company chose not to mention that the supply of gas through the Ukrainian territory is threatened, first of all, by the “very old” Ukrainian Gas Transportation System (GTS), which “needs serious repair”.

“If Russia continues to deliver in the same volume, and the gas transportation system will remain in a deplorable state without renovation, this will lead to an emergency condition of the gas pipeline and a partial stop of gas supply through Ukraine. At the same time, Kiev wants Russia to upgrade the system at its own expense, which at the moment does not allow increasing gas supplies to European countries in the volumes that they need, ”the expert explained.

Kokoreva also emphasized the importance of implementing Nord Stream 2 for the energy balance in the EU.

“The gas pipeline will increase gas supplies to Europe, while the volume of transit directly to Germany will increase by at least 50%. In addition, it will be possible to make withdrawals from the Russian project in the EU using the European gas transportation system, which will further increase the volume of deliveries, ”Anna Kokoreva explained.

Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Moscow State Pedagogical University, agrees with this point of view. According to him, the "arguments" of the representative of Naftogaz "are absolutely untrue."

“Vitrenko’s statement is designed for three international players at once. On the one hand, he is trying to intimidate the EU with difficulties in implementing Nord Stream 2, on the other, he is trying to increase rates in dialogue with Moscow and at the same time curtsey toward Washington, demonstrating his loyalty, ”the analyst explained.

  • Executive Director of Naftogaz Yuri Vitrenko
  • globallookpress.com
  • © Pavlo_bagmut / ZUMAPRESS.com

In fact, as Shapovalov notes, the creation of gas lines such as Nord Stream 2 will lead to diversification of transport routes. This will create additional opportunities for European countries and a “short route”, which is becoming especially relevant since Ukraine “does not perform the functions of a transit country,” Shapovalov notes.

“Kiev constantly sacrifices the interests of European countries to its narrowly self-interested interests in a dialogue with Russia, in the fight against it for gas preferences. The EU has been suffering from this for several years. And the creation of Nord Stream 2 will save a significant part of Europe from the unpredictable Ukrainian policy in the gas issue, ”the expert said.

In addition, Shapovalov recalled that the implementation of the project does not imply a complete refusal of Russia to cooperate with the Ukrainian side.

“Russia has repeatedly stated this, and this is not just a declaration, but a very real policy, since a number of countries will receive gas through Ukraine after the commissioning of Nord Stream-2, if Kiev will comply with international principles and act as a responsible country -transiter, ”the analyst stated.

“The project will be implemented”

At the same time, Nord Stream-2 is unprofitable for the United States - it will make American liquefied natural gas less competitive, experts say. For this reason, Washington is still trying to take measures to stop the project, analysts recall.

The United States Congress plans to impose sanctions against the gas pipeline under construction in the country's defense budget for 2020. This was announced to Defense News last week by the head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Jim Rich. At the same time, the politician admitted that the American side has less chance to stop the construction, since it is almost completed. According to Rish, the introduction of restrictions is directed against companies involved in the construction of the gas pipeline, in order to force them to abandon work on the Nord Stream - 2.

“It will cost them dearly,” Rish said.

On November 21, US Under Secretary of Energy Mark Menezes said at a conference in Washington that the gas pipeline under construction would give Russia "more leverage in Europe." According to him, precisely for this reason, the United States and its allies among European countries oppose the implementation of the project.

Recall, in addition to the United States and Ukraine, the construction of the gas pipeline is criticized by Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, who consider the project “political”.

  • Capitol
  • AFP
  • © BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI

As Anna Kokoreva notes, these countries, speaking out against Nord Stream 2, only duplicate Washington’s position on this issue, since they are “subject to US influence for political and economic reasons.”

“The states have certain levers of pressure on these states and, accordingly, they take the position that is beneficial to the White House,” the expert explained.

At the same time, Vladimir Shapovalov notes that Washington is “opposing the implementation” of “Nord Stream - 2” out of its selfish interests, as it “wants to replace Russian gas with its LNG.”

“America sells liquefied natural gas to Europe, seeks to expand its sales and, accordingly, displace Russia. The US is trying to squeeze out competitors from this market not by economic means, but by gross blackmail and pressure on European countries that consume Russian gas, ”the analyst emphasized.

A similar opinion is shared by Anna Kokoreva. However, according to her, Germany and other European countries understand that blue fuel delivered through Nord Stream 2 is much more profitable than American LNG.

“Traditional blue fuel is more profitable for Europe, because it comes cheaper and faster through the pipeline, without requiring a certain infrastructure, unlike LNG,” the expert explained.

At the same time, analysts agree that the gas pipeline construction project will ultimately be completed, despite attempts by the United States and its allies to stop its implementation.

Nord Stream 2 will be fully implemented. Perhaps, taking into account the positions of Denmark and Sweden, which delayed the approval process, the terms can be revised, but in general there is no doubt that the project will be implemented and will ultimately work at full capacity, ”summed up Vladimir Shapovalov.