• Def to the Council of Ministers: majority summit, on the table the flat tax node
  • The government approves the Def: 2019 GDP + 0.2%, no new tax or corrective action

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April 16, 2019The revision of the mini-Ires, the restoration of super-amortization and the increase in the deductibility of the IMU contained in the growth decree lead to a 2.2% drop in taxes for companies. Thus Istat, which in the Senate hearing on the Def hearing, estimates a 0.2% increase in GDP in 2019 "likely", but warns about the increase in VAT: with the introduction of the safeguard clauses starting from January 2020 "the increase in prices would lead to a depressive effect on consumption which, in the framework outlined, could be in the order of 0.2 percentage points".

Bank of Italy: spread limits growth. In 2020 without VAT deficit at 3.4% of GDP
For the Bank of Italy, according to which "significant hedges" are needed to reach the Def target, the high level of the spread will negatively affect, and increasingly, growth in the years after 2019. In particular, a permanent increase in the spread of 100 base points, like the current one, reduces growth by 0.1% after one year and by 0.7% after three. Excluding the activation of the safeguard clauses on VAT, "the deficit would be placed mechanically at 3.4 per cent of the product in 2020, at 3.3 in 2021 and at 3.0 in 2022; the primary surplus would be equal in average at about half a percentage point of GDP ".

Upb: 2020 maneuver starts at 25 billion without a flat tax. Growing debt
In 2020 coverage will be needed "for 25 billion" without counting the "additional compensation measures" for the flat tax. The UBB explains it in the hearing on the Def. As shown in the table attached to the document given to the Budget and Senate committees, it will take about 2 billion (1.8) for investments and around 23 billion if you do not want to trigger VAT increases. As for the additional 2 billion needed to bring the deficit up to 2.1%, it should be remembered that a further spending review of 2 billion is already planned. "In the extreme case in which the tendential net indebtedness increased by the effects of the unchanged policies is not financed through the activation of the clauses and the maneuver envisaged by the Def and the debt is not reduced due to the privatization income, there would be an increase in the debt that would stand at 134.7 percent in 2021 and 135.4 percent in 2022 ".