By Tirthankar ChandaPosted on 25-11-2019Modified on 25-11-2019 at 10:19
The unrelenting advance of Islamist groups across the Sahel suggests fears of jihadist violence in West African countries. Contagion could engulf the entire subregion.
The more and more deadly terrorist attacks on the Sahel countries , particularly Mali and Burkina Faso , are shaking the capitals of the coastal states of West Africa. " The risk of contagion is real, " warns Pierre Buyoya, former president of Burundi and high representative of the African Union (AU) for Mali and the Sahel. Interviewed on the sidelines of the recent International Forum on Peace and Security in Africa in Dakar, President Buyoya said he was particularly pessimistic about the containment of terrorism on the continent.
" The question is no longer whether West African countries will be affected or not, but when. The warnings of the intelligence services go in this direction and fears of attacks on the soil of these countries in the medium term, "added Pierre Buyoya.
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Vulnerable countries
The concern was palpable at the Dakar Forum , which brought together representatives of the main countries politically and militarily committed to the prevention of violent extremism in the Sahel, as well as Africanist academics who are closely following the " descent of the region into the jihadist hell ". " This year, the goal was to assess the effectiveness of the counterterrorism measures put in place in the Sahel. Since these devices are unable to stop the progress of the jihadist groups, most observers we listened to during the meeting fear that the contagion will spread to other countries in the subregion, "says Hugo Sada, spokesperson for the organizers of the Dakar Forum.
It must be said that the situation has changed, with more and more frank and bold infiltration starting in 2016 in the north and east of Burkina Faso, which has long served as a security buffer between the coastal states of Africa. Western and Sahelian countries have been attacked by terrorist attacks for several years. The Burkinabè lock fell with " recent attacks in Burkina Faso, near the borders with Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin ", reads in a note published (1) at the beginning of this year by the Franco-Belgian think tank, the Thomas More Institute. Suffering from political, social, economic and religious vulnerabilities similar to those experienced by their Sahelian neighbors, " coastal states in West Africa are at the foot of the wall to develop and implement responses that can stem the tide. 'extension of jihadism ', writes Antonin Tisseron, the author of the institute More's note devoted to the jihadist threat.
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A scheduled extension
For Pierre Buyoya, this extension has begun long ago. The AU High Representative cites the attack on Grand Bassam , led by a suicide commando in March 2016, as well as the kidnapping in May 2019 of two Frenchmen and their Beninese guide in the Pendjari Park (a major tourist site in the north). Benin, Ed.), to support his thesis on the dissemination - " inescapable ", according to him - of the terrorist threat in sub-Saharan Africa.
In addition to Côte d'Ivoire and Benin, other coastal countries in West Africa have experienced jihadist incidents in recent months. The surveillance of suspected Islamist phones by local intelligence services suggests that there are now back bases in the states of the region, such as Togo and Ghana. Even more disturbing, as the researcher at the Thomas More Institute writes, " contrary to the rhetoric of external threats and the resilience of brotherhoods ... dozens of citizens have joined jihadist groups in recent years ".
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" This is hardly surprising, " says Pierre Buyoya, who says that the expansion to coastal states was planned in 2012 when militants from AQIM (al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Ed) entered the north of the country. Mali. " This ambition was already inscribed in the programmatic name of the matrix organization Mujao ( Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa, Editor's note ) from which come the main jihadist leaders who make terror prevail today. central Mali and Burkina Faso, "says President Buyoya.
The idea that this extension of the field of jihadist struggle was indeed programmed by its ideologues is confirmed by the researchers who recall that already in 2017 the former Touareg rebel leader Iyad Ag Ghali called his co-religionists to " continue the jihad " in new spaces. The researcher Antonin Tisseron begins his note by quoting the video broadcast on social networks on November 8, 2018 and where we see the main figures of jihad in the region, including the Fulani preacher Amadou Koufa launch his appeal in the Fulani language, enjoining Muslims to to carry the jihad beyond the Sahelian battle lands. Senegal, Mali, Niger, Benin, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Ghana and Cameroon are some of the countries named in filmed preaching.
The state of alert
Faced with these threats of attacks and violence that weigh on their territories and their populations, West Africa's coastal countries have not stood idly by. On the contrary, they have been rather reactive, according to Antonin Tisseron of the Thomas More Institute, who speaks of " mobilization " to strengthen security at borders and in the country.
Here are three examples :
1 - In Ivory Coast, since the shock of the bombing that rocked the seaside town of Grand Bassam in 2016, new attacks have certainly not taken place, but security officials Ivorian have realized that their country is a prime target, especially since Abidjan decided to increase its contribution to the Minusma (United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali, Ed) from 150 to 800 men.
Among the many measures that have been taken in this country since 2016, we must mention in particular the establishment of a border security scheme with particular attention to the 1,116 km of borders that Côte d'Ivoire shares with the country. Mali and Burkina Faso. This has not prevented terrorist commandos from planning attacks, which have been foiled so far thanks to cooperation with the French intelligence service. The Ivorian government also organizes regular attack simulation exercises to raise awareness of the threats.
2 - For Senegal , " the mobilization is reflected in a concentration of forces for better coordination in the face of the terrorist threat ," said Colonel Adama Anta Guèye, director of the Center for Advanced Defense and Security Studies (CHEDS), based in Dakar. " Our countries have been on alert for several years, " says the colonel.
According to the latter, the Senegalese security apparatus has three components: first, the creation of an Information Delegation under the presidency, which brings together all the intelligence services of the State; second part, launching of an intervention and interministerial coordination unit of counterterrorism operations (CICO) under the aegis of the Minister of the Interior and in charge of coordinating the action of the gendarmerie services, the police and the firefighters in case of attack, and, last, the formation of special forces composed of better elements of the army to neutralize the aggressors. " In its fight against terrorism , continues Colonel Guèye, Senegal is also much about cybersecurity. The country has a special division of the judicial police to track down jihadists and criminals who use the Internet to spread their messages of hatred and violence. "
3 - Ghana has, for its part, strengthened security in the various areas threatened by terrorist attacks, particularly in the north of its territory. Authorities fear that many churches in this region will be vandalized by Islamists in case of attacks. This country, which has the reputation of being a stable and well-organized state, has demonstrated its legendary reactivity in crisis situations by ordering a report on the state of threats the day after the attack on Grand Bassam. Terrorists at its National Security Council, says Antonin Tisseron in his analysis note. This report indicated, in black and white, that " Ghana and Togo are the next targets after the attacks in Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire ".
It is no doubt that this warning led the Ghanaian authorities to launch in 2017 a new regional cooperation mechanism, called the " Accra Initiative ", bringing together the coastal countries of West Africa, in addition to the Burkina. The Accra initiative is intended primarily as a framework for consultation and exchange of information between member countries, but has also led to military operations in the region.
Funded exclusively by member states, will the Accra Initiative be the " African response " (Pierre Buyoya) to Islamist terrorism that the leaders of the continent are calling for? There is no guarantee that this will be enough to contain the unrelenting advance of the jihadists who in the space of a few years slipped from northern Mali to the center of the country and then to Burkina Faso, playing with borders and armies that were far more powerful than the combined forces. small countries of the Gulf of Guinea.
" Jihadist threat: the Gulf of Guinea states at the foot of the wall ", by Antonin Tisseron, research associate at the Thomas More Institute. March 2015, Current Note 55.
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