Iran is floundering in its attitude towards the protests of Iraq and Lebanon

Iran is following carefully the developments in the Iraqi and Lebanese arenas recently, not only because protesters in both countries have adopted slogans and pursued anti-influence targets in Baghdad and Beirut, but also because they are parallel to unprecedented regional and international pressure. Tehran is exposed to it, in the light of the escalating steps it has taken regarding its nuclear program and its regional role, in the context of the ongoing escalation with the United States of America, which has had direct repercussions inside the two capitals. Hence, Tehran's unwillingness to take such developments and its keenness to take opposing positions can be explained.

Unfavorable context

Iran initially seemed keen to take a cautious stance towards protests in Iraq and Lebanon, which ultimately affected Prime Minister Saad Hariri's resignation to President Michel Aoun on October 29. But it soon began to attack it, especially when it affected its allies of political forces involved in running the affairs of the two countries. Undoubtedly, this cannot be separated from a set of considerations that have had a direct impact on the outcome of the Iranian policy towards these protests, which can be addressed as follows:

1. Tough timing

The protests that erupted in Iraq and Lebanon came in parallel with the escalation of regional and international pressures on Iran in the current period, against the backdrop of the successive developments witnessed in the region in parallel with the escalation of measures, such as continued support for its armed militia allies in some countries. Crises.

It also comes in the context of the widening tension on the international scene, which is no longer confined to relations with the United States only, but began to extend even to European countries, which were eager in the past to continue to work on the nuclear agreement, but Iranian measures to reduce commitments Some of the steps taken by Tehran have contributed to the widening of the differences between the two parties, such as the detention of the British ship on July 19 in response to the detention of British forces, in cooperation with the authorities of Gibraltar, for the Iranian ship T heading to Syria, before two weeks, along with the ongoing European reservations about the roles played by Iran on the regional arena.

2 - influence test

The current protests have not excluded Iran's allies from taking responsibility for the deteriorating economic and living conditions in both Iraq and Lebanon, not only because of suspicions about each other, but also because they are power-sharing forces and have a key role in internal and external decision-making.

Here, the problem is even greater for Iran, because accusing its allies of responsibility for escalating crises also means it has an irreplaceable role to play. It was remarkable that the protests spread to the areas of the south in the two countries, where the influence of forces and militias loyal to them.

3. Impact of sanctions

The escalation of these protests reveals that the US sanctions against Iran have produced direct repercussions on the ground, particularly in terms of their support for pro-militias in some crisis countries. While these militias have special economic activities to diversify their sources of funding, this does not diminish the importance of this support, which, in the case of Hezbollah, for example, is estimated to be between $ 700 and $ 800 million annually.

The sanctions seem to have reduced this support in such a way that the party has adopted austerity plans. Here, several trends see this variable as having played a role in the protests spreading to the south, the political and social heartland of Tehran's allies.

Internal accounts

The Iranian vision of the events in Iraq and Lebanon in the current period has been affected by the crisis in Iran, and it was evident in the outbreak of continuous protests over the past two years, which began in December 2017, and then renewed recently and continues to escalate. Perhaps this is what drives Tehran to take a stand against these protests, on the grounds that the approach of the second anniversary of the Iranian protests, which spread to about 100 provinces and cities, could give more importance and momentum to what is happening inside both Iraq and Lebanon, and may increase Prospects for renewal in Iran again.

Counter moves

From there, the Iranian parties involved in following up the political developments in Iraq and Lebanon followed several mechanisms in dealing with them.

1. Adopting conspiracy theory

As in the case of the internal Iranian protests, some Iranian trends described what is happening as a "conspiracy" to undermine the pillar of the Iranian-led axis, especially after the developments that imposed itself on the regional scene in recent times, in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.

2. Reduce the momentum of protests

The Iranian response to the protests focused on the fact that economic reasons are the main variable that fueled them, in order to divert attention from the other reasons that contributed to it, and was not far from the repercussions imposed by its relations with some forces and militias, which represent figures in the domestic political scene in all From Iraq and Lebanon.

3. State support

Iran has been keen to confirm its support for the Lebanese and Iraqi governments. This position does not seem to need explanation in the case of Iraq, since most of the political forces involved in the government are close to Iran and its militia allies. In the case of Lebanon, it seems relatively different, given that the primary objective of supporting the survival of the Hariri government before its resignation is to avoid the de-legitimization of Hizbullah as a participant, which is particularly important in light of the pressures and sanctions Its party by the United States of America.

Gradual move

Iran is gradually moving to engage as a direct party in the protests in Lebanon and Iraq in the current period, after it has begun to be regarded as the regional target.

The Iranian view of events in Iraq and Lebanon has been influenced by the crisis in Iran and has been evident in the outbreak of protests over the past two years.

The current protests have not excluded Iran's allies from taking responsibility for the deteriorating economic and living conditions in Iraq and Lebanon.