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Island located off China, capitalist and democratic but claimed by Beijing, Taiwan is in the middle of an election campaign. Presidential candidates had until Friday, November 22, 2019 to declare themselves.
From our correspondent in Taipei,
The presidential race is officially launched in Taiwan, the "Republic of China". The 19 million or so electors of the archipelago, composed of a large island and several other small positions at sea, will elect their president and their deputies next January.
This campaign, like the previous ones, definitely takes the form of a duel on the question of relations with China. On the one hand, the candidate Han Kuo-yu competes for the opposition party Kuomintang, a Chinese party that fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing to the communists.
Today, the Kuomintang is the second largest political force in the country. He still refuses to unite with the communist neighbor, but considers that China and Taiwan form one and the same country. An argument that allows him to defend a rapprochement with Beijing.
Opposite him, current President Tsai Ing-wen of the Progressive Party (PDP) will seek a second term. It defends firmly Taiwan's sovereignty.
A third candidate also declared last week: James Soong, a tireless politician of 77 years who advocates a unification negotiated with China. But this habitué of the polls, well known of the Taiwanese, does not exceed the bar of the 10% in the polls.
Unless big surprise, the battle should be limited to that of these two major parties. The stakes of this election are numerous, but we can name two. First, geopolitical issues; we are in the midst of a trade war between Beijing and Washington, China is becoming increasingly aggressive on the international scene.
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For the United States, Taiwan is therefore a valuable ally at the gates of the Middle Kingdom. In the event of a victory for the opposition party, this balance of power could evolve in favor of China.
Secondly, there is the question of the diplomatic future of Taiwan. It must be remembered that this archipelago operates quite autonomously, but is not recognized as a State by the United Nations. Its survival therefore depends on the alliances it manages to build beyond its borders.
A return to power of the Kuomintang could influence the resolutely sovereignist trajectory borrowed by the party in power since 2016. Like Hong Kong, Taiwan is claimed by China . The Hong Kong events are therefore particularly followed on the spot .
Hong Kong has even become a country theme here in Taiwan. The images of the demonstrations regularly pass on the news channels continuously and make the front page of the newspapers. Nevertheless, this crisis does not fundamentally change the situation.
In Taiwan, neither of the two major parties advocates the "one country, two systems" principle in Hong Kong. The Kuomintang candidate, who was in favor of rapprochement with China, even said in June that he should be " passed over the body " to apply this principle to Taiwan.
On the other hand, a local polling institute has shown that the authoritarianism of Beijing and the pressure exerted by China on Taiwan do indeed result in reinforcing the feeling of a Taiwanese identity.
In this context, it is the president in power who seems to assert itself as the most credible to defend the island and its inhabitants. In recent months, the head of the sovereignist state has continued to widen the gap with its competitor in the polls. She is now ahead of 10 to 16 points.