Paris (AFP)

The global economy is not expected to pick up next year or frankly in 2021, still chilled by trade tensions, the Brexit and the Chinese slowdown, and face these risks, probably expected to last, the OECD calls on states to react quickly.

Contrary to what it said in September, the international institution based in Paris estimated Thursday that the growth of the world economy will not reach 3% next year, but should remain on the pace of 2.9 % already expected for this year.

"We are in a worrying period and politicians should be worried," warned OECD chief economist Laurence Boone bluntly at a news conference.

Because even if the organization anticipates a slight recovery in 2021 with a 3% increase in global GDP, "these growth rates are the lowest since the financial crisis," she notes pointing to the threat of a "risk long-term stagnation ".

At issue, "structural changes not taken into account (by the States) more than a possible cyclical shock", develops the OECD in its detailed report on the global economic prospects by 2021, citing the digitization of the economy, climate change, and a new geopolitical and world trade order since the late 1990s, marked by heightened trade barriers.

"In the absence of a clear policy on these four topics, uncertainty will continue to weigh heavily, penalizing growth prospects," she insists.

Added to this is the profound evolution of the Chinese economy, less oriented towards the export of manufactured goods and more on services and its internal market, which will contribute less to the growth of world trade.

"It would be a political mistake to consider these changes as temporary factors that could be dealt with by monetary or fiscal policy: they are structural", warns the institution, while recognizing that the action of central banks, with in particular the lower interest rates, has supported the global economy in recent years.

- "it's time" to act -

If the painting is black, everything is not lost, according to Ms. Boone. "There are a lot of things that governments can do (...) and this is the time," she said.

As it has been doing for several months, like other international institutions, the OECD pointed to the "imbalance" between monetary and fiscal policies, and reiterated its call for more countries to pursue "incentive" policies. to stimulate long-term investment by taking advantage of low interest rates.

This could include the creation of national investment funds, the advance organization, like the 50 billion euros that plan to launch the Netherlands early 2020.

It also calls on countries to settle their trade disputes. The respective measures taken this year by the United States and China are expected to reduce world growth by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points in 2020, and between 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points in 2021.

The US and Chinese economies, the two world premieres, will obviously suffer, with growth expected at 2.3% this year, then 2% in 2020 and 2021 in the United States, despite the support measures taken at the federal level. . On the Chinese side, the slowdown continues with GDP growth expected at 6.2% this year, before falling below 6% next year (5.7%) and in 2021 (5.5%).

The euro zone is also penalized by the tensions between the two world giants, plus Brexit. So, if France will continue to resist with expected growth to 1.2% in 2020 (unchanged) and 2021, after 1.3% this year, the German economy is expected to slow down more than expected next year before to leave in 2021.

Among the emerging countries, the situation should be even more critical in Argentina, with a recession of 3% this year, before improving a bit in 2020 and a return to growth expected in 2021.

© 2019 AFP