By Léonard VincentPosted on 20-11-2019Modified on 20-11-2019 at 04:55

Voting day this Wednesday in southern Ethiopia. In the so-called province of Nations, nationalities and peoples of the South is held a referendum obtained by a strong struggle by one of the peoples dominating this region, the Sidamas. The challenge: the creation of a tenth ethnic province of the federation. Some see in this election the sign of the gradual and dangerous decomposition of the country.

The outcome of the Sidamas referendum makes little doubt: it is more than likely that this people of about three million people will vote in favor of the creation of a new state that would belong to them. And who should come in theory to join the nine others that make up this multinational group that is Ethiopia.

To better understand the situation, it is important to remember what modern Ethiopia is. It is not a homogeneous nation, with a people, a language, a religion and a common history. It is a mosaic of 80 nations, with small peoples, great powerful nations, Orthodox Christians and Sunni Muslims, and a long history of ancient rivalries. Forcibly, therefore, coexist in a fragile balance of antagonistic forces. Forces that, since Abiy Ahmed's accession to power a year and a half ago, are pushing this great African power to the edge of the precipice.

One of the most numerous peoples

However, the Sidamas do not ask for independence. They want to obtain a new state, that is to say, to be recognized as a nation, with their government, their parliament, their security forces, their particular laws, on an equal footing with the other great peoples of Ethiopia. This is the issue of the referendum, as explained by Kjetil Tronvoll, professor at the Björkness University in Oslo.

" Sidamas have a long history as an independent kingdom, before they became part of Ethiopian expansionism in the late 18th century. In a way, they want to reconnect with their lost independence, their desire to be recognized as a historical entity, said this academic specialist in the Horn of Africa is currently in the region. But they also want to put forward a more pragmatic reason : they are one of the most numerous peoples in Ethiopia and there are smaller groups with their own state. So why them and not us ? That's what we hear on the spot. It is also obviously a way for Sidamas to have direct access to financial resources, but also to have greater weight at the federal level. "

Only, first, the result of this election calls for a constitutional reform, which in the current context of inter-community tensions and institutional crisis in Addis Ababa, will be long and difficult to obtain. Secondly, the question of minority rights arises, particularly in the capital Hawassa, where non-Sidamas outnumber the Sidamas.

" Their marginalization would send a very dangerous signal throughout the country, " says independent researcher René Lefort. Especially since the accession to power of Abiy Ahmed, and the relative political openness he initiated, which has opened a serious crisis of identity of a federation that once held by the Tigrayans' grip on the political apparatus and federal security. A crisis that worries René Lefort, one of the best specialists in Ethiopia today.

For him, " it's Pandora's box, because there are already a dozen nations or nationalities who have asked to do the same thing as the Sidamas. So that poses a problem of possible fragmentation of Ethiopia. And then, in the current situation, there are already inter-regional border conflicts. Borders are still very blurred and mixed populations. Hard to know in these conditions if they belong to one region or another. And the more we multiply the regions, the more we multiply the risks of border conflicts. "

Three million displaced

The risk is very real that this referendum marks the beginning of a conflict process that nothing can stop. At six months of general elections whose behavior is no longer certain given the disorganization of the state, it comes to blow a little more on embers already very red.

" The risk of violence has long been consumed, adds René Lefort. Last year, there were more than three million internally displaced persons (IDPs) due to intercommunal conflict. Whole regions are under military command. The violence is already there. But this referendum Sidamas, which will inevitably be followed by the same demands of other communities, this is not the shadow of a doubt, adds to the risk of violence. "

The uncertainty is total, not on the result of the vote, but on the consequences of this political gesture, obtained in a perfectly legal way, but in a very confused and potentially explosive climate.

" I spoke with many Ethiopian colleagues, who have very different profiles," concludes Kjetil Tronvoll. And we all agree that all scenarios are plausible. A smooth transition to a more open democracy or possible confrontation with the central authority and a collapse of the state, or a disintegration of the state. What is certain is that we are in a very fragile period. There are many uncertainties, many factors unknown today that could have a certain impact on the electoral process. And furthermore, the elections are expected to take place in May 2020, in only six months. And it is difficult to say whether it will be possible to hold federal elections in such a short period of time. "

For the time being, the election campaign went off quietly after the violence that erupted last summer between security forces and nationalist militants. This Wednesday in their polling station, registered voters have two choices on their ballot: for, symbolized on the ballot by a traditional vase, and against, by the drawing of a round hut.

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