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Al Jazeera Net poll: 61% believe that Iran is able to withstand the sanctions .. But what experts said about the current protests?

2019-11-17T13:40:43.418Z



محمد أفزاز Free Membership

The majority of respondents in an opinion poll conducted by Al Jazeera Net that the Iranian economy can face the sanctions imposed by the United States of America on the country. This comes at a time when Iran is witnessing protests against the background of the government's decision to increase fuel prices.

Sixty-one percent of those polled from October 27 to November 11 were convinced that Iran could withstand US sanctions, but the impact on the domestic economy would be significant.

The poll was conducted by 2,100 people. "Do you think the Iranian economy can withstand US sanctions?"

"40 years of resilience, surely, Iran can continue," said one respondent. "Yes, Iran is a country that can withstand and win over economic warfare."

Another participant said Tehran was "able and easily because it has nuclear weapons," while one commentator said it could withstand but "not in the long run."

"Iran can survive because it depends on Iraq's oil and markets and has a huge border that is difficult to block, but there is no doubt that the pressures have a great impact on the Iranian economy, especially the people," one commentary said.

The United States returned to sanctions on Iran's oil industry after US President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal.

Iran was the third largest crude oil producer in the world before the U.S. sanctions, which began in August 2018, with an average production of 3.84 million barrels per day, while currently producing 2.15 million barrels, according to the Anatolia news agency.

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Fake penalties
And 39% of respondents in the poll Al Jazeera Net voted "no", and some seemed convinced that these US sanctions are nothing more than "fake."

"Iran cannot survive. If the revolution in Iraq succeeds and there is a boycott of Iranian markets, they will only survive a month or two," a poll participant said.

One respondent linked Tehran's resilience to what he called its exploitation of the "good deeds of neighboring Arab states" such as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

One participant went on to say, "Yes (Iran can withstand) because the sanctions are not serious," and another considered the "formal sanctions".

Another poller described US sanctions on Iran as "illusory" because Tehran is an "ally of America."

"Sanctions are on the table, but there are no sanctions," one commentary said.

Protests erupted in Iran after the government decided last Friday to raise the price of ordinary gasoline to 15,000 riyals ($ 0.13) per liter from 10,000 riyals, and set the monthly quota for the private car at 60 liters, while the price of any additional purchases will be 30 thousand riyals per liter.

Iran's state television said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday backed the price of gasoline. He added that the increase in the price of gasoline was based on the opinion of experts and must be applied, but called on officials to prevent the rise in prices of other goods.

The government has said it expects to raise gasoline prices to about $ 2.55 billion a year, earmarked to boost support for 18 million low-income Iranians or about 60 million Iranians.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani discussed months ago the issue of raising fuel prices in an open session under the dome of the legislature, which was rejected by lawmakers because of the difficult economic conditions experienced by the country, according to economic committee member Mohammad Reza Pour Ibrahimi.

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Wrapping mechanism?
"In practice, if sanctions are applied without wrapping, Iran will not be able to withstand them for more than six months," says financial analyst Nidal Kholi. However, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, "but the Iranians have become specialists in circumventing the sanctions in cooperation with many neighboring countries."

He added that these countries are divided into two parts "countries that are unhappy with American decisions and support Iran to overcome sanctions such as China and Russia, and the second part are countries, companies and organizations that see in each package of sanctions a new investment opportunity to make deals bypass that can not be achieved in peacetime."

Asked whether the current protests against the fuel price hike were related to the negative effects of sanctions on Iran's oil sector, Khouli said: "Yes, certainly, the Iranian government, no matter how they circumvent the sanctions, cannot keep the people away from the impact of sanctions and will gradually have to pass some of the sanctions bill. For the direct market. "

Khouli expressed his belief that "has begun to move the forces of the internal street to make the sanctions more effective using pressure from several political, economic and social."

Despite its huge energy reserves, Iran has been struggling for years to meet domestic fuel demand due to a lack of refining capacity and international sanctions that limit the availability of spare parts needed to maintain the complexes, Reuters reported.

Gasoline prices in Iran are among the cheapest in the world due to heavy subsidies and the devaluation of its currency, Reuters reported.

Al-Jazeera Net asked: "Do you think Iran is capable of facing the US sanctions? For former Iraqi Oil Minister Issam Chalabi, his answer was" yes.

Asked if there was a link between the current protests in Iran and the impact of sanctions, Issam Chalabi replied "Yes", without giving further details.

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No curvature
"So far, there is no indication that Iran is prepared to bow to US economic sanctions," says economist Qasim Mohammad Qasim.

He adds in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that "in the stark contrast between the American position run by President Trump in the style of economic warfare, and Iran's position based on pride in history and dignity and avoid the unavoidable repercussions, it is necessary to exercise pragmatism and political realism with neighboring countries "The international community is helping the American and Iranian parties to come down a little bit from the tree and meet halfway."

Qasim Mohammad Qasim said that Iran is resisting sanctions, driven by many national, historical, political, and past wars, as well as its ability to withstand huge economic sanctions, as was the case during the first Gulf War in the 1980s.

"There is no doubt that the sanctions have significant negative effects on the Iranian oil sector, which has deprived the Iranian Treasury of its revenues due to the blockade," Mohammad Qasem said.

He pointed out that the decline in oil revenues caused the budget deficit and introduced the economy in severe austerity measures that led the government to increase the prices of fuel destined for domestic consumption at a time when the market suffers from the increase in prices of many commodities.

In Iran, a member of parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Heshmatollah Falah Bishah, said the economy pays the tax of politicians' mistakes.

The researcher Haider users Hosseini that the expenses of the Iranians are not commensurate with their revenues, and that raising fuel prices will lead to raise the prices of other goods without a doubt, and felt that there is no tangible impact on the lives of the citizen because of what is said about the distribution of profits rationing fuel to needy families.

The riyal has fallen dramatically against the dollar, and inflation in Iran is more than 40 percent, according to AFP.

The International Monetary Fund has previously estimated that Iran needs the price of $ 194.6 per barrel of oil to balance the budget next year, at a time when the price of a barrel currently below $ 63.

The IMF expected the budget deficit to reach 4.5% this year and more than 5% next year. He also predicted Iran's economic growth would shrink 9.5 percent this year as a result of US sanctions.

Source: aljazeera

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