“The country on the verge of chaos”: what could turn out to be a political crisis in Bolivia

At least 23 people were killed and 715 were injured since the beginning of the political crisis in Bolivia. This was reported on the eve of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights at the Organization of American States (OAS). Only in the last day, according to the organization, as a result of the clashes, 9 people died and 22 were injured.

🔴 CIDH actualiza las cifras de víctimas en #Bolivia: desde ayer son 9 fallecidos y 122 heridos desde la represión combinada de la policia y fuerzas armadas. Se totaliza por lo menos 23 personas muertas y 715 personas heridas desde el inicio de la crisis institucional y política. https://t.co/y9LIbOITRT

Concern about what is happening in Bolivia was also expressed at the United Nations. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet noted that the actions of the Bolivian security forces can only aggravate the situation in the country.

“I’m extremely concerned that the situation in Bolivia could get out of hand if the authorities do not act carefully, respecting international norms and standards in the field of the use of force, and fully respecting human rights,” said Bachelet’s statement on the UN website. - A split occurred in the country, and people on both sides of the political confrontation are extremely angry. If the authorities act in a repressive manner in this situation, then this anger will only intensify, and the opportunities to come to a dialogue may be in jeopardy.

In addition, Bachelet expressed concern about reports of mass arrests in the country, many of which have been carried out in the past few days.

After at least 5 protestors died in #Bolivia on Friday, UN Human Rights Chief says repression + unnecessary & disproportionate use of force risk inflaming situation. @mbachelet urges authorities to ensure security forces comply w / int'l norms & standards: https://t.co/kYYHfyogDOpic.twitter.com/3iF6KFnyh2

“The clean coup”

Protests in Bolivia broke out after the incumbent head of state, Evo Morales, won the presidential election on October 20. The right-wing opposition disagreed with the results of the vote and initiated protests that grew into riots.

Morales imposed a state of emergency in the country and accused political opponents of trying to carry out a coup. However, under pressure from the military on November 10, the president was forced to announce his resignation and flew to Mexico, where he was granted political asylum. The vice-speaker of the parliament, Janine Agnes, was declared the interim president of the country.

After that, supporters of Evo Morales, mostly representing the Native American population of Bolivia, took to the streets. They dispute the legitimacy of the provisional authorities of the republic, led by Agnes. It was the supporters of Morales who were the victims of recent clashes with the army and police. Media reported that in November 15, Bolivian security forces opened fire on opponents of the interim government in the Cochabamba department between the cities of Cochabamba and Sacaba.

It is worth noting that the appointment of Jeanine Agnes as acting president became possible only after most of the country's leadership resigned after Morales, and the opposition representative in the rank of vice speaker was the first in line among high-ranking politicians who could be assigned these functions. At the same time, during the approval of Agnes’s candidacy for the new post, the necessary quorum was absent - two thirds of the deputies representing the ruling party Movement to Socialism (MAS) boycotted this meeting.

Morales himself said that he was the victim of a coup organized by the United States. In turn, Donald Trump called the removal of the Bolivian president from power "an important moment for democracy in the Western Hemisphere."

“This is a pure coup, because the opposition did not come to power by popular vote, but by force, simply forcing the president to resign,” Alexander Chichin, Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the Russian Presidential Academy of Sciences, commented on what was happening in Bolivia.

The same point of view is shared by the director general of the Latin American Center named after Hugo Chavez Egor Lidovskaya. In an interview with RT, he emphasized that the resignation of Evo Morales “currently has no legal force, since it was not adopted by the Parliament of Bolivia, in which the majority are supporters of Morales”.

“Senora Agnes, who is trying to proclaim herself president of Bolivia, also cannot be considered a legal representative for the simple reason that the parliament has not gathered a quorum,” Lidovskaya said.

"Carte Blanche for the killings"

Evo Morales condemned the methods of the Bolivian security officials who used weapons, and blamed their actions on the acting President Agnes, leader of the protest movement Luis Fernando Camacho and his opponent in the presidential election, Carlos Mesu. According to Morales, during the execution of the demonstration on Friday 12 people were killed, and 24 of his supporters were killed, all of them are representatives of the indigenous peoples of the country. Morales stated that “while ordinary people demand peace and dialogue,” “the Camacho, Mesa and Agnes regime suppresses them with tanks and bullets.”

Mientras el pueblo humilde clama por paz y diálogo, el régimen de facto de Camacho, Mesa y Añez, reprime con tanques y balas. Desde su autonombramiento, ya causaron 24 muertos; ayer, 12 en Sacaba. Todos hermanos indígenas. Esa es la verdadera dictadura que masacra sin clemencia pic.twitter.com/q8GJh7IIcr

Also on his Twitter, Morales said that the interim government issued a decree removing the army’s responsibility for acts of violence in suppressing protests.

“This is carte blanche that provides impunity for the mass killings of people,” said the Bolivian leader.

Los autores del #GolpeDeEstadoEnBolivia gobiernan con decretos, sin en el Legislativo y apoyados en armas y bayonetas de Policía y FFAA. Promulgaron un DS que deja a la institución militar exenta de responsabilidad penal. Es una carta blanca de impunidad para masacrar al pueblo pic.twitter.com/tfIFtutprv

The interim government dismissed the president’s exile accusations, saying the police and the army were acting on the situation.

However, the statement of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights notes that Decree No. 4078 of November 15, signed by Janine Agnes, which exempts representatives of law enforcement agencies involved in operations to restore stability and internal order from criminal liability, “ignores international human rights standards and in its own way stimulates brutal repression. "

El grave decreto de # Bolívia desconoce los estándares internacionales de DDH y por su estilo estimula la represión violenta. Los alcances de este tipo de decretos contravienen la obligación de los Estados de investigar, procesar, juzgar y sancionar las violaciones de DDHH. (2/3)

Experts say that when the protests were directed against Morales, he refused to take the army to the streets.

“There was never any repression under Morales, he did not crush the opposition, showed himself to be a very restrained and moderate politician,” says Yegor Lidovskaya.

According to the political scientist, the return of Morales could contribute to a peaceful resolution of the situation, since "this is a person who is aimed at talking, and not shooting at his opponents."

• Supporters of Evo Morales
• Reuters
• © Luisa Gonzalez

“The state in which Bolivia is located can be called a passive or quiet civil war. Whether it enters the active phase will depend, in particular, on what Morales will do, ”said Alexander Chichin. “Will he fight for the presidency or will he prefer not to create a conflict and civil clash.”

Ethnic factor

Recall that earlier Evo Morales advocated starting the process of national dialogue in Bolivia with the mediation of the UN or the Vatican. He also did not rule out that he could return to the country to “appease” Bolivia. For this, the country's parliament must convene and not approve Morales's resignation.

• Jeanine Agnes
• © Carlos Garcia Rawlins / Reuters

At the same time, Janine Agnes has already announced that she intends to reverse the decision of the Constitutional Court on the possibility of unlimited re-election of the head of state, which allowed Evo Morales to participate in the presidential election in October. And if he decides to return to the country, he will be put on trial, she noted. Also, according to her, the leaders of the Movement to Socialism will not be able to participate in the extraordinary general elections to be held in the coming months.

In turn, in an interview with Al Jazeera on November 17, Evo Morales said that he was not going to run for the top post once again and would only like to end his presidential term.

According to experts, a serious catalyst for domestic political instability is the unresolved ethnic and interregional contradictions in Bolivian society. Despite the fact that most of the population of Bolivia is made up of representatives of indigenous peoples, Evo Morales became the first head of state of Indian origin for almost 200 years of the country's history.

Now it is actively supported by representatives of the Indian population from the province. The symbol of the protesters was the multi-colored flag of the Andean peoples - viphala, which received the status of state under Morales. In turn, the “whites” and mestizos of large cities took an active part in protests against Morales. They trampled and burned the Indian flag, and the police who stood on their side cut off this symbolism from their uniforms.

One of the leaders of the protest against Morales was the millionaire Fernando Camacho, who came from the natural gas-rich “white” province of Santa Cruz, where separatist protests against Morales took place in 2008. In the past, he led the far-right movement of the Unión Juvenil Cruceñista. On the day Morales announced his resignation, Camacho, along with his supporters, entered the presidential palace and promised to “return God” to this building.

Bolivia coup leader Luis Fernando Camacho is a rich oligarch and far-right cadre who emerged from Nazi-saluting fascist movements.

He has courted support from Colombia, Brazil, and the US-backed Venezuela coup regime

By @MaxBlumenthal and @BenjaminNortonhttps: //t.co/gFMyfjsi2p

In turn, after the post of acting Janine Agnes took over the president, on Twitter, deleted by her, surfaced on social networks, in which she, in particular, called the Indian New Year’s celebration “Satanic”, and President Morales - “poor Indian”, and expressed doubts that indigenous peoples could walk in the streets in shoes.

“There is an uncomfortable ethnic factor in the events in Bolivia,” said Alexander Chichin. “Morales has reduced poverty rates, carried out grandiose social reforms, and the poor, Indians, have benefited first of all from these reforms. Therefore, the excitement of the Indians does not subside now. But in the capital, La Paz, just the majority of people don’t perceive positively Aimar Morales as the country's leader. ”

According to Yegor Lidovsky, "all representatives of the self-proclaimed authorities in Bolivia are representatives of the white minority associated with large capital."

The expert also noted that the confrontation in Bolivia has a pronounced ethnic character. However, in his opinion, if the interim government continues its repressive policy, then wider sections of the population can join the protesters.

Consequences for the world

Commenting on the situation in Bolivia on November 14, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that Moscow fundamentally condemns "the use of violent methods to solve political problems."

“Bolivia needs calm and peaceful dialogue. It is important to restore the work of state institutions in the constitutional field. We hope that a responsible approach will also be taken by all members of the international community, both in the Latin American region and outside it, ”said Zakharova.

At the same time, commenting on the statement by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on the recognition of Janine Agnes as the head of Bolivia, the official representative of the Russian diplomatic mission clarified that "this is not about recognizing what happened in Bolivia as a legal process."

In turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin, answering questions from journalists following the results of the BRICS summit in Brasilia, noted that the situation in Bolivia "is very reminiscent of Libya."

“Although there is no direct armed invasion from outside, the country is actually on the verge of chaos. This, of course, is an alarming signal, ”the head of the Russian state noted.

At the same time, the president announced his readiness "to cooperate with the authorities, which will receive a legitimate mandate from the people."

The new authorities in Bolivia demonstrate their willingness to go in the US channel. So, one of the first foreign policy steps of Janine Agnes as acting President of Bolivia was the recognition of Juan Guaido as President of Venezuela. La Paz also broke off diplomatic relations with the government of Nicolas Maduro and left the ALBA block created by Hugo Chavez.

According to Alexander Chichin, all the actions of the new government "as if carried out by the hand of the United States."

As the Grayzone portal, founded by renowned American journalist Max Blumenthal, notes that most of Bolivia’s military leadership, which played a role in eliminating Evo Morales, was previously educated or trained in the United States. And the main opponent of Morales in the October presidential election, Carlos Mesa, is a member of the Washington-based non-governmental organization Inter-American Dialogue, which is headed by Michael Shifter, the former head of the Latin American programs of the US * National Democracy Fund (NED).

According to Lidovsky, our country should not expect anything good from a change of power in Bolivia.

“Maybe at first these people will not make ultra-sharp statements,” the expert said. “But we will not succeed in cooperating to the extent that we previously collaborated.”

However, according to Vladimir Sudarev, Chief Scientific Officer at the Institute of Latin American Countries of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in order to understand Bolivia’s future foreign policy course, it’s necessary to wait for the elections, which will take place in 3 months.

• Gas production in the department of Santa Cruz, Bolivia
• AFP
• © Aizar Raldes

“I think that we must first wait for new elections,” RT Sudarev said. - In Bolivia, our companies are mining natural resources of strategic importance. And I would really like them to stay there. ”

In turn, the head of the Institute of the Newest States, political scientist Alexei Martynov, emphasized in an interview with RT that there was simply no one to change the foreign policy of Bolivia's legitimate government before the election.

“In order to change a foreign or domestic policy, there must be people, politicians or institutions that will change it,” Martynov said. - But today in Bolivia there is practically no legitimate authority. The world hastened to recognize this government only so as not to spin the flywheel of the civil war. But this does not make the government legitimate. ”

* “The National Endowment for Democracy” is an organization whose activity is deemed undesirable in the territory of the Russian Federation by decision of the General Prosecutor's Office of July 28, 2015.