In light of the changing nature of conflicts and the emergence of such a phenomenon as hybrid threats, NATO should think about updating its agenda in order to meet new challenges. This opinion was expressed by Thierry Tardy, head of research at the North Atlantic Alliance Defense College, in a report entitled NATO Scoping.
The document, with the text of which was reviewed by RT, pays special attention to activities on the eastern flank of the military-political bloc, in particular, the issue of “containment” of Russia.
“What is especially important, the expansion of the agenda is becoming increasingly relevant, even if we talk about collective defense in relation to the eastern direction and containment of Russia,” the report says.
In particular, experts at the Defense College believe that in addition to strengthening defense, the alliance needs to work on building societies that are resistant to hybrid threats. And for this, it’s worth not only developing cooperation with third countries, but also reviewing the provisions of the NATO Charter, which spell out the principles of collective defense, Tardi said. Recall that the fifth article of the Charter states that an attack on one of the bloc members is considered an attack on all NATO members.
“On the eastern flank, tough measures to strengthen defense are accompanied by the need to develop the sustainability of societies and combat threats that could potentially be both external and internal (because of their hybrid nature). This requires not only cooperation with civil societies, local governments, the private sector, non-NATO countries of the EU (in particular, Sweden and Finland) and the European Commission, but also some knowledge in these areas. This is true in relation to situations falling under Article 5, and even more so in relation to any scenario of actions of the North Atlantic Alliance in connection with situations to which this article does not apply, ”the report states.
It is worth noting that NATO has repeatedly made resonant statements about Moscow. Thus, the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, accused Russia of “interfering” in the affairs of sovereign states, and also included it in the list of main threats to the alliance.
“It is absolutely certain that today we are facing the most unforeseen security situation for many years. These are Russia's increasingly aggressive policies, cyber threats, hybrid threats, instability in the Middle East and North Africa, and the ongoing terrorist threat. In response to this, NATO is accelerating the largest adjustment to collective defense since the Cold War, ”Stoltenberg noted.
In turn, Moscow does not agree with such rhetoric. As Vladimir Putin previously stated, Russia does not threaten foreign partners, taking only response to external challenges.
“Russia does not threaten anyone, and all our security actions are exclusively retaliatory, and, therefore, defensive,” the president noted.
- President of Russia Vladimir Putin
- RIA News
- © Alexey Nikolsky
In the current realities, the North Atlantic Alliance has to seek an excuse for its existence, which explains the tendency to continuously search for the "enemy". Such an opinion in an interview with RT was expressed by professor, member of the Scientific Council at the Security Council of the Russian Federation Andrei Manoilo.
“Here it is Russia, here it is the“ enemy ”, the very fact of which justifies the existence of the NATO bloc. Accordingly, so that no one doubts the need for such an expensive military machine as NATO, the public, primarily the Western one, needs to be reminded of the “hybrid threats” that NATO is confronting, ”the expert explained.
At the same time, cooperation with Finland and Sweden is necessary for the military alliance for the possible transfer of its troops to the Arctic sector, said Manoilo.
“NATO is not needed by the Swedes and Finns. They have very weak armies, small in numbers. They need logistics, because for transfer to the Arctic, for example, sector, for transfer to the borders of the Russian Federation, these routes going through Finland and, especially, through Sweden, are very important, ”he said.
Counter options
A report by the NATO Defense College discusses, among other things, the scenario of Russia's "invasion" of the Baltic countries. In this regard, the author asks how diverse the response of NATO to such actions should be.
“If, as is often assumed, the Russian invasion of NATO’s territory will consist in the fact that the“ green men ”will occupy key positions (and will destabilize the situation) in the cities of a Baltic state, as well as in conducting multivector cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns ( which, most likely, will begin much earlier than any physical invasion), leaving aside the debate about the application of Article 5, should the NATO reaction be inevitably diverse, combining the whole range of measures - from military operations is quick first response to the actions of the military and the civilian character "- the report says.
In recent years, certain forces in Europe have regularly raised the topic of an allegedly possible Russian attack on the Baltic region. So, in early November, the Minister of Defense of Latvia Artis Pabriks announced the readiness of the country's armed forces to repulse the Russian military in the event of a likely "invasion" of the republic.
“What will we do if“ green men ”appear somewhere in Latvia? .. We simply throw them out and neutralize them,” he said.
The Polish authorities are also actively lobbying for the need to deploy a new NATO base in the country - to strengthen the alliance’s eastern flank.
- Latvian Minister of Defense Artis Pabriks
- globallookpress.com
- © Christian Spicker, via www.imago
However, Russia has repeatedly rejected such speculation. In particular, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov, noted that, using “fake logic” and the substitution of concepts, the North Atlantic Alliance justifies the deployment of heavy weapons on the border with Russia.
“Under the pretext of escalating Russophobia in relations between Russia and NATO, accusing us of being almost ready to attack the Baltic states, Poland and everyone else, only in the sore brain such ideas can arise, but, nevertheless, such sore brains were found, ”the diplomat said.
“This absolutely fake logic leads to a completely real deployment of heavy weapons, additional large contingents on the borders of NATO with the Russian Federation,” the minister emphasized.
NATO’s “concern” with the fate of the Baltic states is primarily due to the pragmatism of the United States, and not at all the desire to assist these states in ensuring the security of their borders, said HSE professor Oleg Matveychev.
“They need the Baltic, but not in order to protect it. When did Americans even do anything for someone? In this case, the Baltic states are used, exploited as they like to attack their geopolitical enemy - Russia, ”the source said.
"Does not meet the challenges of our time"
According to the authors of the report, the NATO model of the Cold War has by now lost its relevance, which requires a new approach to resolving emerging issues.
“The existence in the modern world of such threats as Russia or ISIS * shows how priority a military concept or military response should be for NATO; and to what extent deterrence or coercion is necessary to maintain the stability and expediency of the existence of NATO, ”the publication states.
It is interesting that last summer the NATO Defense College already published a report, theses of which indicated the alliance's unpreparedness for new challenges. Thus, it was noted that the military-political bloc is not able to effectively respond to possible aggression for a number of reasons, including due to a reduction in funding over the past 25 years.
In addition, the Defense College announced the existing obstacles to the West to effectively deter hybrid threats, including from Russia.
Commenting on the situation, the director of the Center for Political Studies of the Financial University Pavel Salin noted that the North Atlantic Alliance is geared towards conducting military operations by traditional means and has a rather clumsy structure. Now the bloc is forced to look for “new threats” to justify the funds allocated to its activities.
“If in the conditions of a traditional war this slowness is somehow mixed, then in a hybrid war, when you need to act quickly ... NATO does not meet the challenges of our time. In order to maintain its budgets, personnel, volumes and scale, so as not to reform, it is necessary to look for new threats, and a hybrid threat is such a new threat for the alliance, ”said Salin.
* “Islamic State” (IG) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.