Oil, dollar and gold .. What will happen to the value of each?

Everyone is waiting for positive news and forecasts about currency support, but the coming winter may not be the best time for the currency, oil and gold prices, which will be directly subject to the political situation in America, China and Europe.

The writer Mikhail Ismailov says in an article published by the Russian news site "News" that all investors and speculators in the world are seeking to make profits and reap huge returns from the money they invest in the economies of developing countries, and although the currencies of these countries are still in great demand, their situation may change Tragically.

Trade Agreement
International investors are now closely following the details of the first phase of a possible US-China trade deal, which the world economy is waiting for some positive signs that will benefit global trade development and improve overall political conditions.

Since the postponement of the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference in Chile, there has been much debate about the new history of the event, said Roman Plenov, director of research at the Russian Center for Finance.

Plenov explains that the significance of this conference is that a new, very important document, which could defuse the US-China trade war, could emerge as a roadmap for the first phase of the two-nation foreign trade agreement.

The expected agreement will also be linked to the fate of the Russian currency, given its significant impact on international markets, which is likely to extend until the first quarter of next year.

On the other hand, the optimism that prevailed on the Wall Street Stock Exchange has turned into a pessimistic situation in light of the negative expectations of experts, which will change the mood in the international financial markets. As a result, these markets will diminish their growth potential, at least until early next year or early spring.

The writer says that the international currency markets survived another wave of dollar decline, although this was expected after the breakthrough in the case of separation between the European Union and Britain. It was believed that the appreciation of the pound sterling and the single European currency would weaken the US currency. This would have been positive for US exporters, but the continued demand from foreign investors for the dollar has helped prevent the US currency from falling.

Uncertainty in the oil market
Oil prices continued to fluctuate amid uncertainty over the upcoming China-US deal. Investors are counting on a swift signing of an agreement to eliminate tariffs, but the absence of any official details on the deal makes it difficult to maintain market optimism.

Peter Navarro, Trump's trade policy adviser, has confirmed the absence of a ready-made agreement on tariffs, which has led to a further decline in financial markets.

The issue of a new agreement between Beijing and Washington has become purely political, as 2020 will see US presidential elections organized, and Donald Trump will see whether signing the deal will help him win a second term or undermine his chances.

In the absence of Donald Trump's serious desire, all efforts by representatives of the Chinese and US sides in trade talks between the two countries will be in vain.

The writer points out that the next meeting of OPEC Plus, will be held in early December, during which the meeting will seek to issue pledges to reduce production to raise the price. Saudi Arabia is also gearing up to offer part of Aramco's shares, so it will use any opportunity to raise prices to lure investors and earn more.

However, in the absence of any positive developments in trade relations between Beijing and Washington, oil prices are expected to fall further to less than $ 61 a barrel.

Gold pressures and stability
Gold prices are directly related to the readiness of international investors to take risks, and the expectations of experts on the economic policies of central banks and the Federal Reserve.

Gold has always been seen as a safe option, and demand is rising in times of uncertainty, increased risk, and a deteriorating global economy.

It is therefore natural to see that the price of the yellow metal rose by a third between August 2018 and September 2019, from $ 1158 an ounce to $ 1553. The reason is simply that this period witnessed the intensification of the trade war between the United States, China, the European Union and Mexico, along with the severe political crisis caused by the Brexit.

But by the beginning of this month, the problems have waned after expectations of a trade deal between Beijing and Washington, a postponement of the British exit from the EU and signs of an agreement between the two sides emerged.

It is likely that the international economic situation will create pressure to reduce the price of gold, which may reach a level between 1440 and 1444 dollars an ounce, so experts do not recommend buying precious metal at the moment.