Dubai (AFP)

Climate change is expected to take place in the highly anticipated IPO of Aramco, the Saudi oil giant, analysts stressing that environmental concerns will likely weigh on the price of the action to be released Sunday.

"Terrorist" attacks, regional geopolitical tensions, risk of falling global demand for hydrocarbons: Aramco listed in a prospectus published last week, the potential risks faced by investors wishing to acquire its shares.

And the most profitable company in the world, which pumps nearly 10% of the world's oil, has also acknowledged the fear of the growing mistrust of fossil fuels at the instigation of environmental NGOs.

"The concerns and impacts of climate change could reduce global demand for hydrocarbons (...) and lead the company to invest additional capital" to be more environmentally friendly, says Aramco in its prospectus.

Such concerns expressed by global public opinion and enshrined in national regulations or international treaties could, according to the company, "spur a transition to lower-carbon fossil fuels such as gas or gasoline sources. 'alternative energies'.

Fossil fuels are considered to be primarily responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, the main cause of global warming.

The UN and environmental groups are intensifying pressure on states and oil companies to reduce CO2 emissions.

Asked by AFP, Hossein Askari, professor of international business at George Washington University, goes further than the Saudi company.

"Regional instability and the diminishing role of the United States in the region (...) will likely reduce Aramco's appeal to large institutional investors," he said.

"The pressure of climate change has become the most important factor for the evaluation of Aramco," said the expert.

- "Enhanced surveillance" -

Most banks and investment companies estimate the value of the Saudi flagship, hitherto 100% owned by the state, to about 1.5 trillion dollars.

The IPO on the local market of a small share of the company - the proportion has not yet been announced - should bring in about $ 30 billion.

For Torbjorn Soltvedt, Middle East expert at Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based risk and strategy consultancy, "There is no doubt that environmental, social and governance risks will be taken into account in the calculations. investors interested in the IPO of Aramco ".

"Banks and institutional investors are under increased scrutiny from shareholders, NGOs and advocacy groups," he continues.

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners, whose wealth depends largely on revenues from the production and export of fossil fuels, especially oil, regularly resist international initiatives to accelerate the transition to new sources energy-friendly.

To reduce CO2 emissions while ensuring a smoother transition for their economies, these countries rely on the use of advanced technologies to reduce their carbon footprint.

Aramco, against the backdrop of the global trend, has significantly increased its investments in "research and development" in recent years to make the prospecting, production and processing of hydrocarbons less polluting.

At the same time, Aramco plans to invest some $ 334 billion over the next few years to support its oil production, according to Al MAl Capital, a Dubai-based investment firm.

"There would be a reduction" in the assessment of Aramco due to concerns about climate change, summarizes Jean-François Seznec, an analyst at the Center for Global Energy of the Atlantic Council, a think tank based in the United States .

But the transition to renewable energy will take "a few more decades," says the analyst.

© 2019 AFP