Paris (AFP)

Small surprise in the third quarter: the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 point, but for INSEE this "very limited increase" does not call into question at this stage the downward trend observed since mid-2015.

According to the standards of the International Labor Office (ILO), France (excluding Mayotte) has 2.528 million unemployed, 10,000 more than in the second quarter. That is an unemployment rate of 8.6% of the active population against 8.5%. On a year, this rate is however down 0.5 point.

"The unemployment rate is on a plateau this quarter," acknowledged Europe 1 Minister of Labor, Muriel Pénicaud. "But we must keep the long-term vision," she said, referring to a "dynamic" job creation "very strong, with more than 260,000 jobs created a year ago."

This rise in unemployment between July and September is surprising to the extent that the other indicators of the quarter remained green: dynamic job creations (+54,300), hiring statements up (+ 2.3%) and unemployed (category A) at employment center down (-0.4%).

"We were expecting a slight decrease of 0.1 point," says Sylvain Larrieu, head of the synthesis and labor market conditions at INSEE. The statistician speaks of "a very limited increase" because "10,000 unemployed represent only 0.03 point of the active population". It's the rounding that goes from 8.5 to 8.6%.

How to explain this discrepancy with the other indicators? "There may occasionally be a small contradiction with the employment measured from administrative sources, it has happened in the past, even if the sample is important, there may be a small statistical hazard, it is a investigation, "recalls the expert.

The statistics institute surveys 110,000 people over the age of 15 every quarter. Are considered as unemployed those who meet three criteria: not having had a paid activity during a reference week, being available for a job within 15 days and having actively sought a job in the previous month (or in have found a beginning in less than three months).

According to the expert, this increase "does not seem to call into question the general trend of a 0.5 point drop per year since mid-2015", when it had reached a peak of 10.5%.

- "We still have it underfoot" -

The executive keeps its target of 7% in 2022, even though it is now more conditioned by the economic environment. With 1.3% growth expected in 2019, France is currently more resilient than its European partners to the deterioration of the global economy.

"We must continue this battle employment, we never said that it was a long quiet river," said the Minister of Labor, convinced "we still have under foot", particularly at the level of training and recruitments.

"Employers must also open their chakras, hire senior citizens, people with disabilities, neighborhood youth, and there is a lot of conformism in how to recruit," she said.

By age group, the unemployment rate for 15-24 year olds fell by 0.2 points to 19.1%, a decline of 2.3 points over one year. Over 50s, however, rose by 0.1 point to 6.4% (+0.1 over one year).

For long-term unemployment, that is to say the unemployed who say they have been looking for a job for at least a year, the rate is stable over this quarter and down by 0.3 point over one year. That represents one million unemployed people.

The participation rate, that is the proportion of 15-64-year-olds who are working or unemployed, also decreases by 0.3 point to 71.3% and 0.7 point over one year. There too, "it is a rather surprising figure because it is tendentially on the rise", recognizes Mr Larrieu, for whom "it will be necessary to wait for next publications to confirm or deny this movement".

© 2019 AFP