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Once the general elections are held, the next date marked on the calendar is December 3, when the Courts will be constituted and the Congressional and Senate Tables will be elected. Although the distribution of positions in the Tables always leaves the first clues about possible pacts for an investiture , the pre-government agreement announced by Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias limits the possible combinations to form a governmental majority. After the vote abroad, the PP has won a deputy in Vizcaya at the expense of the PNV, which slightly varies the accounts to the PSOE and Unidos Podemos.

EL MUNDO DATA offers you the possibility to simulate the possible agreements of the investiture session based on the Regulations of the Congress of Deputies. Choose a candidate and see how support for, against or abstention from each political formation determines the path to the government headquarters.

[If you have trouble viewing the chart, click here]

Ideologically, the results of 10-N leave a balance of forces between blocks similar to that of 28-A. Thus, the sum of PSOE, Unidos Podemos and Más País reaches 158 seats (eight less than in April) for the 152 of the Popular Party, Cs, Vox and Unión del Pueblo Navarro (three more than in the previous elections).

With a Congress in which arithmetic makes it very difficult to reach 176 deputies who guarantee the absolute majority and overcome the investiture on first vote, the combinations go through getting more votes in favor than against.

Thus, given the coalition proposal between the PSOE and United We can foresee that they oppose PP, Vox, Cs and UPN, to which Junts per Catalunya (8) and the CUP (2) will probably join. In total, 163 votes against. To overcome the investiture Sanchez will need at least 164 votes in favor , a sum that could be achieved through any of the following combinations:

  • If PSOE + UP get the favorable vote of Más País, ERC and PNV, Pedro Sánchez would be invested in first vote with 178 votes (absolute majority).
  • With the votes in favor of PSOE + UP + MP + ERC (171) and abstention of PNV and EH Bildu.
  • With the votes in favor of PSOE + UP + MP + PNV (164) and abstentions of ERC, EH Bildu, CC-NC, PRC, BNG and Teruel Existe.
  • With the votes in favor of PSOE + UP + MP + EH Bildu (163), together with the abstentions of ERC and the PNV, plus a favorable vote and the abstention of the rest of the five seats that have CC-NC, PRC, BNG and Teruel There, together with the abstentions of ERC and the PNV.
  • In the event that the Catalan route is blocked and ERC also refuses to facilitate the investiture of the PSOE candidate, the 'no' of the Republicans, JxCat and the CUP together with that of the center right block and Canary Coalition would exceed half of the hemicycle (177), with which the candidate would be rejected.

    In the event that the agreement between the PSOE and United We can derail, and if the Socialists sought a great coalition with the PP, Sanchez would be invested with 208 votes on first vote. If the popular ceded by abstention, to a presumable vote against Vox, United can, ERC, JxCat, EH Bildu and CUP (115), the combinations would pass by:

  • Abstention of Cs + PNV + More Country and three other abstentions between CC-NC, UPN, PRC, BNG and Teruel Existe.
  • If Cs and MP also voted against, it would be necessary to vote in favor of PNV together with two votes in favor and all others to abstain from CC-NC, UPN, PRC, BNG and Teruel Existe.
  • If MP and the PNV also voted against, it would be necessary to abstain from Cs along with six votes in favor and an abstention from CC-NC, UPN, PRC, BNG and Teruel Existe.
  • If MP and the PNV also voted against, it would be necessary to vote in favor of Cs together with two votes in favor or one in favor and another abstention between CC-NC, UPN, PRC, BNG and Teruel Existe.
  • There would still be another alternative: a sum of PSOE and Cs that had the approval of the PP:

  • If PSOE and CS vote in favor of Sánchez, the investiture would go ahead if they get abstention from the PP and three other abstentions or two favorable votes (132 in total) from the rest of the parliamentary arch.
  • This is how the investiture process works

    Neither the Regulations of the Congress nor the Constitution determine deadlines for the round of consultations between the King and the parties or the holding of the investiture plenary, in which the applicant sets out his program and seeks the confidence of the Chamber. The only reference is found in article 170 of the Regulation, which leaves the convening of said plenary session in the hands of the president of the Chamber, Meritxell Batet.

    Having held the investiture debate between the candidate and the representatives of each parliamentary group, the decisive moment of the vote comes. The 'Yes' of at least 176 deputies ensures the presidency of the Government. Any result below that number prevents the appointment, at least in the first round.

    The regulation of the Congress contemplates a second vote, 48 hours after the initial one, in which the simple majority of the seats is sufficient, a procedure through which Leopoldo Calvo Sotelo passed, when he replaced Adolfo Suárez in 1981, José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero to revalidate mandate, in 2008, and Mariano Rajoy, in 2016, when he overcame the vote thanks to the abstention of a large part of the parliamentary group of the Socialists.

    The second round allows to obtain the confidence of the Congress with less deputies. If the number of votes in favor exceeds that of votes against, the candidate will be the next tenant of the Moncloa Palace.

    What if he did not achieve the simple majority either? In that case, the applicant would have failed and the process would begin again. The King would consult the parties with representation again, propose another candidate and another investiture session would be held. The procedure can be repeated as many times as necessary, with a limit: two months from the holding of the first investiture vote. After that time, if no candidate obtains sufficient support, the Courts are dissolved and new general elections are called.

    So far, Pedro Sánchez himself twice (in March 2016 and July 2019) and Rajoy, in September 2016, have starred in the three failed investitures of recent democracy.

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    Know more

    • President's Investiture
    • General elections
    • PSOE
    • PP
    • Citizens
    • Vox
    • United We Can
    • More Country
    • ERC
    • Junts per Catalunya
    • Regionalist Party of Cantabria
    • Pedro Sanchez
    • Canary Coalition
    • Pablo Iglesias
    • Senate
    • Bildu
    • Congress of Deputies
    • PNV
    • Data journalism
    • Pablo Casado

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