Washington (AFP)

Donald Trump praised the good health of the US economy Tuesday despite studies quantifying the impact of the trade war on employment and economic activity in the United States.

The economy "has far exceeded our expectations," said the White House host in a speech in New York, while defending the imposition of punitive tariffs. "The real cost would have been to do nothing".

While the US manufacturing industry is in recession, however, he recognized for the first time that the industry suffered "perhaps a slight uncertainty" before saying the opposite: "There is no uncertainty "," they were not affected "by the trade war.

Donald Trump's speech to the New York Economic Club coincided with the publication of a study for the Port of Los Angeles, California, the largest port in the United States and one of the largest in the world.

Punitive tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imports, mainly from China, and retaliation against US goods threaten nearly 1.5 million jobs in the United States, according to the study.

Assigned imports and exports represent $ 186 billion annually, in freight value and based on 2018 data.

The survey includes additional customs duties on more than $ 360 billion worth of Chinese goods already in force, as well as those that could be imposed on December 15 to some $ 160 billion worth of Chinese goods - including the iPhone-- have not yet been overtaxed.

So far, Donald Trump and his administration have hammered that the trade war had had no impact on the US economy, incriminating the Central Bank's policy in the economic downturn.

In September, soon after a new wave of punitive tariffs, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin himself said he did not see "for the moment of sign of impact on the United States."

Economists agree, however, that US economic growth is slowing due in part to the uncertainty surrounding the trade war, which discourages investors.

Manufacturing activity in the United States continued to contract in October but at a slower pace than the previous month.

What makes Donald Trump say that the manufacturing industry "is recovering very very strongly" and that "our country is really very solid".

- New threat -

"All the urban, suburban and rural areas of our country benefit from imports and exports passing through the ports of San Pedro Bay," said Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles.

The freight passing through the California port is estimated at more than $ 380 billion and economic activity generates more than three million US jobs.

According to Mr Seroka, some regions and industries already feel "the damage to jobs, to income".

The study shows that tariffs imposed since March 2018 could result in additional costs of $ 31 billion to $ 35 billion, which are borne by consumers and US manufacturers in need of imported raw materials and certain components.

While the majority of tariffs target Chinese products, the report's authors point out that China is the main source of supply, accounting for "54% of imports".

Donald Trump announced last month a tentative trade agreement with China, which has yet to be signed.

"An agreement could come soon but we will only accept an agreement if it is good for the Americans," he insisted.

Before threatening: "If we do not agree, we will significantly increase tariffs."

His economic adviser Larry Kudlow reported progress in the talks without coming forward on a date or even reaching an agreement.

The president has not disclosed his decision on the possible imposition of tariffs in the automotive sector this week.

The report released Tuesday by the Port of Los Angeles also shows that the most vulnerable agricultural states include Republican strongholds like Kansas, Texas and Louisiana, as well as more contested states such as Ohio and Arizona.

Last week, the Tariffs group Hurt the Heartland had estimated that US companies and consumers had paid an additional $ 38 billion between the start of the trade war in early 2018 and September 2019.

© 2019 AFP