Why is Evo Morales leaving now?
The pressure against Morales has increased steadily after his disputed election victory on October 20. The opposition accuses the president of cheating and after the election Bolivia has been shaken by widespread protests. The dissatisfaction goes back to 2016 when Morales lost a referendum to allow for a fourth term as president. After the election loss, the Supreme Court nevertheless gave Morale's green light to run again, which angered many Bolivians. During Sunday, the events were dramatic. It started with the American states' cooperative organization OAS disapproving the election results. Then the president chose to announce new elections but shortly thereafter, the military urged Morales to resign, which he did with the statement that he wanted to avoid a carnage.
What happens next?
Bolivia is in a power vacuum. The President has resigned, even the Vice President has resigned and the presidents of both chambers of Congress likewise. The Deputy Chairman of the Senate - opposition politician Jeanine Áñez - says she is ready to take over until the new election is held. But formally, she can only take office once Congress approves Morale's departure. And it is his socialist party that has a majority in both chambers. There is also a rumor of an arrest warrant against Morales, who is believed to be hiding among supporters in the countryside. And social media videos show how his home is being looted. At the same time, mayors and governors of the ruling party have been forced to resign and the chairman of the electoral court has been arrested and shown on television by the police.
The military urged the president to resign. Is it a coup d'état?
It's hard to call it anything other than a coup when the military forces a president to step down. And that happens after Morales agreed to a new election and to reform the electoral authority. In addition, he is forced to leave power before ending his current term of office, which he was elected for 2014 and which expires only next year. At the same time, it is clear that Morales defied the will of the people when he opposed the results in the referendum and ran for a fourth term. And according to the OAS, there were a number of irregularities in the October 20 elections. This can therefore be both election fraud and coup d'état. What is beyond doubt is that the military now plays a more active role than has long been the case in Latin American politics. And it evokes painful memories in a continent that has long been marked by military coups.
What will be Morale's aftermath?
Morales came to power in 2006 and has since completely rerouted the political map in Bolivia. He comes from a very poor background and is the country's first president of the indigenous population, which constitutes majority in Bolivia but has long been discriminated against and marginalized. Economically, Bolivia has flourished under Morales - high growth and a well-stocked treasury that has enabled large investments in social programs. Poverty and unemployment have been halved and illiteracy has basically been eradicated. A new middle class has emerged. At the same time, Morales has eroded the division of power in the country and clung to the presidential post. If Morales instead chose to end his time as president after three terms and found a suitable heir in time, he would probably have gone to history as Bolivia's most successful president in modern times and his political projects would have had a better chance of living on.
What does the course of events in Bolivia mean for the rest of Latin America?
Latin America is in the most turbulent period of several decades. And the polarization between left and right governments is increasing rapidly. Recently, the street protests in Chile and the release of Brazil's president Lula da Silva have divided the continent. The dramatic development in Bolivia means new gasoline on the fire. The region's heads of state have quickly lined up on different sides of the conflict. Socialist countries Cuba and Venezuela - but also Mexico and Argentina's newly elected president - support Morales and see Sunday's event as an illegal coup. At the same time, conservative governments - not least Bolsonaros Brazil - have welcomed developments in Bolivia. Evo Morales is one of the Latin American left's foremost leaders, so his future is extremely ideologically charged.