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The fourth Spanish legislative elections in four years could leave the country even less governable after those of last April. The latest studies show that no block should be imposed this Sunday, November 10. The push of the far right could change the situation.
With our special correspondent Madrid , Juliette Gheerbrant
The polling station opened this Sunday morning at 9am (8am, universal time) in Spain. Twenty people were waiting, opening an hour later than usual, in an office in central Madrid.
Some early risers had already had to turn around before coming back. Some 37 million Spaniards are called to nominate their 350 deputies and signatories, with the hope of getting the country out of the blockage.
► To read also: End of campaign for an end of the political blockade in Spain?
No way out of the crisis is coming, quite the contrary. The political situation could be this Sunday evening even more unstable. No bloc seems able, either to the right or to the left, according to the polls, to obtain the majority of 76 elected to govern.
The gap between the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP) should be reduced. Ciudadanos is given in free fall. The landscape seems even more fragmented with the appearance of Más País, a party that split with Podemos, and the participation of the CUP, the party of extreme left Catalan.
Political landscape fragmented
The Vox score will be particularly scrutinized. This party could become the third political party in Spain. The extreme right of Santiago Abascal has made a strong push in the polls. The range is wide, it is the main unknown of this election. Vox attracts, with a speech that manipulates the figures of immigration and delinquency.
But the Catalan crisis also benefits him. This crisis dominated the campaign, especially with the demonstrations that followed the announcement of the verdict against separatist leaders. The Vox party already actively supports the Popular Party and Ciudadanos coalitions in three regions, in Madrid, but also in the region of Murcia and Andalusia.
Finally, the other big unknown is participation. Abstention could reach a record. It must be said that elections follow one another and that weariness wins voters. Traditionally, this abstention benefits rather to the right.
Vox made a strong comeback in the polls after the October protests in Catalonia. The lowest prognoses credit it 33 seats instead of 24 currently.
Her safety speech appealed to Cali Gilliard, 69, a resident of a suburb where there are 13% foreigners. " The evening comes and we do not dare to go out in the street. We are afraid of rape, murder, snatching and all that. Before, it was not like that, "says the lady.
Manipulation of figures
It does not matter if academics have dismantled the manipulation of crime figures by the extreme right in a recent forum; Vox's other workhorse is nationalism.
This week, the party has passed a motion in Madrid to ban pro-independence parties and David Alonso agrees. This young 33-year-old will vote for Vox even if he does not share all his ideas.
" On abortion, euthanasia, we are in the 21st century, I think they should update themselves. On the other hand on illegal immigration I am for. On the political level too, they want the autonomous regions to have less power, because we are dividing, "he says.
In exchange for his support for right-wing coalitions, Vox has sometimes made important concessions to his program. No survey predicts such a scenario at the national level, but a third of the voters were still undecided just days before the vote.