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The armed forces of the Ukrainian government and Russian-backed separatists began today the withdrawal of troops from another key sector of the front line, located east of the country. The Ukrainian army announced that the maneuver began in the morning with the planned withdrawal of troops and weapons in Petrivske, a village in the eastern region of Donbas.
The withdrawal of troops in the town of Petrivske is just one of a series of measures that could pave the way for a four-way summit: Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany , with the aim of ending the Donbas conflict at one time. . It is the third withdrawal of this type that occurs on this front. Last week the Ukrainian army reported that its military ended the withdrawal of forces from the Zolotoe sector, also in Donbas. In June, Ukrainian troops and separatists withdrew one kilometer from the frontline city of Stanitsia Luhanska. And in July work began there to restore the destroyed bridge in the city, a key crossing used every day by thousands of people on both sides of the front line.
These arms withdrawals and improvements in the area occur after President Volodimir Zelensky has backed a principle of agreement to hold elections in the territories controlled by the separatists. His Ukrainian opponents see the plan as a "capitulation" to Moscow, as the letter of the pact would allow elections before a complete separatist withdrawal and before Kiev has control of the 400 km border with Russia. Zelensky has said he is willing to talk even with "the devil" to bring peace to Ukraine and has a powerful parliamentary majority. But "the national-patriotic minority is motivated and prepared to mobilize," explains Konstantin Skorkin of the Carnegie Analysis Center in Moscow.
Zelensky has embraced the "Steinmeier formula", which would grant special status to the parties controlled by the separatists of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions , collectively known as the Donbas. The Kiev government has ensured that the withdrawal in this Petrivske village means that Ukraine has met all the conditions on its part to hold a peace summit.
Self-government in exchange for peace
Both sides have been accusing each other of violating an agreed ceasefire in the capital of Belarus, Minsk, in 2015. Fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed fighters has killed more than 13,000 people since 2014. Hopes are put in this plan, which is not new. It was proposed in 2016 by the then German Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and contemplates "free and fair elections" in the east under Ukrainian law, with verification by the OSCE and then a self-government regime.
Opponents of Zelensky believe that nothing is possible if the border with Russia is not controlled before, because that's where help has come in for every armed challenge that Kiev has faced since 2014. They also argue that candidates must be allowed to attend there of Ukrainian political parties: currently in the separatist zones the armed leaders who control them barely allow opposition. Pulses for separatist power exist, but in an underground way: sometimes fighting for the favor of Moscow and sometimes directly shooting.
But what do Ukrainians on the other side think? For the analyst Konstantin Skorkin, "due to the closed nature" of both separatist republics, "it is difficult to assess how willing its inhabitants are to accept the 'reintegration' format in Ukraine provided by the Steinmeier formula." A survey in the separatist territories conducted in August 2019 by a German pollster showed that 31% supported autonomous status within Ukraine, 27% supported autonomous status but within Russia and 24% wanted to return to the situation before the war, as mere regions of Ukraine. If the data is true, Kiev has much in its favor to reunify the country.
But the underlying problem is the influence that Moscow may have on the day that these regions have an autonomous government recognized by Kiev. More than 33,000 inhabitants of the self-proclaimed People's Republic of Donetsk have obtained Russian passports since the beginning of the delivery of the documents according to the simplified procedure, according to data from the Migration Service of this separatist republic disseminated by the Russian agency Sputnik. The ruble circulates freely and the local economy has largely disconnected from the rest of the country.
Judgment for interference
Since the beginning of the war in 2014, Kiev has blamed Russia for the conflict for supporting the insurrection with combatants and weapons. Now the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague has decided to take action on the matter. Ukraine had come to it denouncing violations of the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism and the International Convention on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination. After examining Russia's claims against the lawsuit, the ICJ ruled that it has jurisdiction to deal with this case. Russia insisted that the agreement on the repression of the financing of terrorism or the one referring to racial discrimination was not the responsibility of this body.
The adjustment of accounts has been added by the Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Vladislav Krikliy, demanding the payment of compensation to Kiev for the reconstruction of Donbas. The Kremlin considers the statements inappropriate, said spokesman Dimitri Peskov.
Moscow is following the events very closely: the peace process is considered on one side and another of the border as the great political test of Zelensky, who even traveled to Zolotoe, the previous point in disarming, to physically face a group of members of the Azov battalion that refused to "abandon" that enclave. In some villages there is hope in the withdrawal of soldiers, but also fear that the separatists will take closer positions or that when the authority disappears there will be account adjustments. Peace may be full of traps for the new Ukrainian president.
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