China is not going to join the negotiations on nuclear disarmament, which are the United States and Russia. This was stated by the director of the Department of Arms Control and Disarmament of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Phu Tsun.

“China does not shy away from fulfilling its own duties; China does not shy away from responsibility. We are ready to reduce nuclear arsenals to honest levels. If other countries reduce their arsenals to the level of China, we are ready to join the process. However, it is unrealistic to expect China to join the so-called trilateral talks, ”he said at the IV Moscow Conference on Non-Proliferation.

Earlier, the idea of ​​connecting the PRC to the Russian-American disarmament dialogue was expressed by Donald Trump.

“We are dealing with arms control right now. We work with China, with Russia. And, in my opinion, both he and she are interested in this work - especially with regard to nuclear weapons. This is something like a major agreement in the field of arms control with the participation of Russia, China and, possibly, not only them, ”the US President said at a briefing on November 4.

So Trump commented on the expiration in February 2021 of the Russian-American Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction and Limitation Treaty (START III), which provides for a reduction in the number of nuclear warheads and their carriers.

The day after the briefing by the US president, Pentagon chief Mark Esper and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenhe spoke in a video conference. In the communique of the American defense department, the conversation is called “frank”. Esther and Wei Fenhe paid "special attention to stability, honest and open exchange of information, as well as strengthening cooperation in areas of common interest," the Pentagon emphasizes.

At the IV Moscow Conference on Non-Proliferation, Phu Tsun said that this December a new meeting of representatives of Washington and Beijing will be held, which will be devoted to nuclear safety.

He also stressed that China is in favor of extending START III after 2021. A similar point of view is shared by Russia. In particular, in October, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu voiced this position.

“Now we have on our agenda the extension of the agreement on the reduction of strategic offensive arms. We believe that this is the last stone left in the international security system. We are set to extend it, ”RIA Novosti quoted Shoigu as saying.

Chinese interest

China’s refusal to join the initiative is logical and consistent with Beijing’s strategic line on nuclear disarmament, experts say.

“The idea of ​​trump does not suit China for almost everyone. The Chinese are not going to participate in any negotiations until Russia and the United States reduce their arsenals to a level comparable to China, ”said Vasily Kashin, senior researcher at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The expert noted that Fu Tsun outlined the principled position that the Chinese authorities have been adhering to for many years.

“This position is simple: we abide by the previous obligations on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, and all that is beyond this only when the nuclear arsenals of the United States, Russia and China become comparable. True, the PRC did not disclose the size of its nuclear arsenal, and it does not, ”the expert says.

Ivan Konovalov, director of the Center for Strategic Market Studies, believes that official Beijing has good reason to reject Trump’s call to join the Russian-American nuclear disarmament talks.

“The US and Russia account for 90% of the global nuclear arsenal. Moscow and Washington have thousands of nuclear warheads, and China has 200, maximum 250. For comparison: India, with which the United States is on the rise now, has more than 120 nuclear warheads. Israel, Washington’s traditional ally, has at least 80 nuclear warheads, and maybe more. However, Trump clearly named only two states with which a comprehensive disarmament treaty should be concluded: China and Russia, ”the expert said in an interview with RT.

“Naturally, in Beijing they cannot help but wonder why such selectivity: is Trump’s proposal related to his course on countering the PRC,” he stressed.

Konovalov recalls that the US president never hid the fact that he considers the PRC the main geopolitical rival of his country. Recently, this position of the White House was once again voiced by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Speaking in New York, he accused the Chinese Communist Party of striving for dominance in the world.

Washington Motives

According to Vasily Kashin, offering China to join the process of nuclear disarmament, trump pursued two goals.

  • Donald Trump
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“Firstly, if the PRC agrees, it will be in the interests of the United States. China has now entered a phase of rapid growth of its strategic nuclear forces. The country has made great strides in creating new types of weapons, and Chinese arsenals are also growing in quantity. Americans would like to limit this process. Secondly, if China responds with a refusal - and this is exactly what happened - Washington also benefits. At least, he can now, on occasion, blame the Chinese side for the collapse of the existing arms control system, ”said the expert.

Konovalov recalls that the Trump administration has already destroyed the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty). The future of the Open Skies Treaty has also been called into question.

“The fate of START III is not clear. But he crowns the general system of agreements that maintain a strategic balance in the world, ”said Konovalov.

Kashin draws attention to the fact that Trump, although he offers an alternative to START III, has not yet “buried” this treaty directly and unequivocally. However, there is good reason to believe that the United States can withdraw its signature on this document, the expert believes.

“It is known that part of the Trump administration is opposed to any arms control regimes. And earlier in the American establishment, there were those who believed that the system of treaties concluded during the Cold War limits US capabilities and therefore needs to be reviewed. At one time this was the opinion of a minority, at another - the opinion of the majority. Now it seems to have prevailed, at least surrounded by Trump, ”Kashin believes.

In his opinion, if the United States directly and unequivocally decides to abandon START III, then they can use China’s refusal to join the new treaty as a reason for this.

“Trump will say that he cannot extend or conclude an agreement because of the unconstructive position of the PRC and that the Chinese are to blame for everything, after which the agreement will disappear. And we will be left without an arms control system, ”the expert concludes.