The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is preparing itself for difficult days, after its expectations for crude oil fell, although the need for black gold will continue to grow.

According to its latest annual report, the organization estimates that it will sell each year 7% less than black gold, so the demand for its oil will decline from about 35 million barrels per day to 32.7 million barrels in 2023.

"The main factor in the medium-term supply growth from outside OPEC is the explosion of US oil," the group said in its report.

The United States will pump as much as 17 million barrels per day (bpd) of shale oil by 2025, 40 percent more than today, according to OPEC estimates. Thus, US production will peak at 22.8 million bpd, which is about 20 percent Global supply.

Global demand for oil will remain dynamic, according to OPEC report (Reuters)

Quotas and their limits
These expectations confirm the failure of the organization's strategy to stabilize the market and maintain its share, as leaving prices did not eliminate the threat posed by shale oil, as the policy of rationing quotas to support prices limited the results, especially as Americans - when raising prices - resume the extraction of crude oil In large quantities.

The Organization and its partners - including Russia - are due to meet next month in Vienna to discuss further production cuts, the paper said, without which the risk of overproduction would remain dominant, although the risks of a trade war between Washington and Beijing that have affected prices have become less clear. .

According to the International Monetary Fund, OPEC countries are under great pressure because the current level of prices of about $ 60 a barrel does not allow them to balance their budget, especially since a country like Saudi Arabia needs to sell the barrel at an average price of $ 83.6, so that the unexpected gains of oil sufficient to balance Public accounts in 2020.

Crude oil prices also weighed on Saudi Aramco's valuation, which Riyadh is preparing to put on the stock market, as bankers in charge of the deal are considering a valuation of between $ 1,500 billion and $ 1,800 billion instead of the $ 2,000 billion that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was targeting.

According to the annual OPEC report, global oil demand will remain dynamic, reaching 110.6 million barrels per day by 2040, which is one million barrels less than the previous forecast.

The paper concludes that OPEC's economic activity is lower than expected, although it is making sustainable gains in energy efficiency and fuel changes in many countries, and predicted that the EU will impose stricter standards for carbon dioxide emissions, boosting the electric car market.