A year before the 2020 elections .. Trump and his Democratic opponents .. Who prevails?

Mohamed Minshawi-Washington

Four years ago, the Republican Party saw 17 candidates compete for the party's ticket for the presidential election, and the candidates represented all the colors of the Republican political spectrum. In the final round of Hillary Clinton, he ignored all the polls and expectations of US policy experts.

Today, a year before the election on November 3, 2020, the image is reflected and more than two dozen Democratic candidates are locked in a heated battle for the party card to confront President Trump in the final and decisive round.

Stress and disorder
Trump's years have seen only tensions, both in his handling of key issues, his relationship with Congress, his ministers, and even his choices for the Supreme Constitutional Court.

On the other hand, there were Robert Muller's investigations for nearly two years on Russian interference in the US presidential elections. Ukraine's access to US military aid has been linked to an investigation into the activities of former US vice president and presidential candidate Joe Biden's son Hunter in Ukraine.

The Trump circle of senior aides was unstable, and during his years in office four national security advisers began with General Michael Flynn and succeeded by General HR McMaster, then John Bolton, and finally Robert O'Brien.

The position of national security adviser is the closest to the president, and the rate of change of advisers - the highest in American history - indicates instability within the White House.

Not only the White House, the Pentagon has changed three times so far. General James Mattis resigned in December over a disagreement over troop withdrawals from Afghanistan and Syria, followed by Patrick Shanhan and Mark Asper.

Nevertheless, President Trump has hopes of being elected for a second term, extending his reign until the early 2025s.

Files drive towards Trump
The good economic situation the United States currently enjoys is at the top of the files supporting Trump's re-election.

Trump's tax policies - which cut taxes on the rich and the labor sector - have contributed to an improvement in the economy, according to the camp.

Opinion polls over the past three years show increased satisfaction with Trump's overall economic policies.

The issue of immigration and related construction of a barrier parallel to the southern border with Mexico is also attractive to those who voted for Trump in the 2016 election.

On the other hand, the failure to bring any charges against the president against the backdrop of two-year investigations by investigator Robert Mueller is an important motive for Trump.

Trump, in what Republicans see as an acquittal on the issue, will use his election rallies to show his strength against so-called "Democratic plots."

The House inquiry is expected to play a key role in the 2020 election.If the investigation ends in failing to isolate him or bring direct charges against him - and this is what Republicans expect - it will give a strong boost to his re-election. Democrats have all the means to keep him out of the White House.

On the other hand, Trump will push foreign policy issues to show his electoral bases what he considers "great achievements", push forward his meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong-ung, end tensions on the Korean peninsula and stop Pyongyang's missile tests as an achievement.

Trump will also deliver on his election promise to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal and not get involved in an armed conflict with Tehran as an achievement.

The announcement of the elimination of ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a positive dossier for Trump to use as an election.

Finally, the lack of a strong alternative to Trump within the Democratic camp is a point of support for his fortunes according to the camp supporting accusations of corruption and helplessness of the candidate Joe Biden, while many experts believe that the progressive agenda adopted by candidates Bernie Sands and Elizabeth Warren is very liberal and does not attract the votes of independents, and may reduce the lack of consensus Democrats have yet to compromise their chances in the Trump competition.

Files drive away from Trump
A number of economic analysts point to signs of an economic recession triggered by President Trump's trade battles against major trading partners, led by China.

Trump's protectionist policies have prompted voters in agricultural states that supported Republicans in the 2016 elections to be very concerned.

States such as Kansas, Idaho and Iowa are examples of states already hit by sanctions and tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting China to take retaliatory policies against their exports, and the prospect of a change in the loyalty of their citizens will carry bad news for President Trump's campaign.

On the other hand, the fate of Democrat investigations aimed at isolating Trump will control the push away from his election if irregularities are revealed that the Republicans cannot continue to support the US president.

Some experts consider the results of the congressional elections - a year ago that led Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives - as a defeat for President Trump, and represented an early referendum on Trump's popularity, leaving all possibilities open for the 2020 election.

A referendum, not an election
Opinion polls show contradictory results according to who you are. A recent Harris and Hill survey found Trump's popularity at 54%, while a CNN poll showed a drop of 42%. Just.

Although it is difficult to judge the positions of the candidates a year before the elections, with the continued division and unprecedented political polarization in the United States, the 2020 election is not about judging competing policies and programs of candidates, but rather a referendum on the person and behavior of Trump.