The Polish Institute of International Relations (PISM) under the government of the republic talked about the "risks" that lie in the rapprochement between Russia and France. In particular, analysts believe that Emmanuel Macron’s commitment to unilateral dialogue with Moscow could undermine unity within the EU and NATO on a number of issues.

“If Macron continues to unilaterally pursue a course towards normalizing relations with Russia, without consulting EU partners, this could lead to new, more acute disagreements between member states regarding the policy towards Russia. As a result, the EU’s unity in the issue of existing sanctions can be undermined, ”the PISM newsletter reads, with the text of which was reviewed by RT.

Experts of the analytical center believe that Macron advocates strengthening cooperation with Russia, primarily in order to counter the growing influence of China in Europe. Thus, the strategy of the French leader may be to prevent further rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing through improving relations between the EU and Russia.

In addition, the document notes that Paris is interested in obtaining such an ally as Moscow in order to emerge victorious in resolving a number of crises outside Europe, including the Syrian conflict. Also, thanks to cooperation with Russia, Macron expects to receive economic benefits, increase the volume of bilateral trade and raise its rating in the Fifth Republic, Polish researchers note.

As Pavel Kandel, head of the Center for Ethnic and Political Conflicts of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized in a conversation with RT, Macron is really aware of Russia's role in solving global problems.

“In general, the political French tradition since de Gaulle, if not to speak of earlier times, always paid great attention to relations with the Soviet Union and now with Russia. In addition, Macron claims to be a leader in the EU, that he will formulate the agenda and put forward the most important initiatives. In this regard, he is also considering relations with Russia, ”the expert noted.

Recall that at the end of August 2019, Macron said that the era of Western hegemony was coming to an end, and called for a radical revision of relations with Russia. He also advocated the creation of a new European security architecture together with Russia - the authors of the PISM newsletter also point to this aspect.

“Risky Collaboration”

At the same time, Polish analysts argue that cooperation with Russia carries certain risks for the French leader: “A strategy of closer cooperation with Russia is risky. First, Putin can use Macron for his own purposes: for example, in Russian propaganda, the French president can be represented as a world leader who supports Russia's aggressive policy. ”

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As a result, as noted in the document, such a French policy could jeopardize its relations with Ukraine and the countries of the Eastern flank of NATO, such as Poland, Romania and the Baltic countries.

PISM experts believe that Macron is aware of the “threats” emanating from Russia, as evidenced by his administration’s preparation of a law to combat disinformation against French-speaking RT and Sputnik.

However, Igor Shatrov, deputy director of the National Institute for the Development of Modern Ideology, said in an interview with RT that all these risks were contrived.

“Analysts state the facts, describe the reality, in the sense that France really expects more constructive cooperation with Russia. But France is not alone in this position, there are countries that are counting on even closer cooperation. This is, in particular, Italy. The same Germany, which takes a formally balanced position, is an active supporter of the construction of Nord Stream 2 and does everything to ensure that this project is completed. So it cannot be said that Germany also opposes Russian-European cooperation. So just in this situation Poland is lonely or can count only on the support of such marginal countries with extreme points of view as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, ”said Shatrov.

It is worth noting that in Europe, some countries regularly talk about the need to establish contacts with Russia and lift sanctions. For example, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that she has always advocated and will continue to advocate good relations with Russia. Italian authorities have repeatedly called for a review of the sanctions policy against Russia, and the country's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte noted the high level of bilateral relations between Russia and Italy.

“Unwanted rapprochement”

The PISM Newsletter emphasizes that for Poland, rapprochement between France and Russia is undesirable. In particular, because of Macron’s idea to attract Russia to the creation of a new European security architecture.

Thus, the French leader noted that the European continent will never achieve stability and security without having pacified and clarified relations with Russia. At the same time, Polish analysts believe that this will only increase the differences between the countries.

“If Paris pursues a similar policy with respect to Russia, this will aggravate its disagreements with Poland and prevent it from breaking the deadlock that the relations between the two countries have entered,” analysts say.

This is not the first time that the Polish expert community has criticized the intentions of other countries to interact with Moscow. In particular, analysts said that Slovakia’s cooperation with Russia on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project exacerbated the split between the countries of the Visegrad Group.

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Official Warsaw is also not inclined to build friendly relations with Moscow and regularly speaks out about “threats” from Russia. As stated by the President of the Republic, Andrzej Duda, Moscow allegedly violates the prevailing world order and security system and is the main challenge for NATO.

However, as Igor Shatrov emphasized, Russia not only always acts as a reliable partner in economic terms, but also politically, it has never demanded that its partners indulge the interests of Moscow.

“Russia's foreign policy and economic ties are not ideologized, unlike Poland’s position, which, depending on both Russian transit and other issues related to Russia, regularly cuts the branch it sits on, because it relies on that the United States will not let Poland fall for its support ... And whether Macron will support some of Russia's actions in the foreign policy arena or not, this will not affect the economic ties between Russia and the European Union, and they, as we see, have begun in recent years revolt time limitations, tend to overcome the crisis in the relationship, which happened in 2014, "- concluded the expert.