Yemen peace deal a fragile truce between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates

The writer Jonathan Fenton Harvey says that in order to establish genuine peace and stability in Yemen, international actors must reduce the involvement of all Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the country.

The Saudi-brokered deal to integrate the government of Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi and the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council into a unified system has raised expectations for peace in the war-torn country, he said.

He believes that this "deal" is an opportunity for foreign powers to strengthen their influence in the country, because the Yemeni parties respectively received mixed support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The SPC staged a coup in Aden last August, seized the government-controlled interim capital, and then subdued other southern provinces, sparking the Yemeni war again, and militias. The council's affiliates progressively advanced across the south amid widespread UAE support.

Strategic alliance
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are determined to maintain their regional strategic alliance, encouraging the unification of these two Yemeni parties, the writer said, noting that the UAE withdrew some of its forces following the arrival of Saudi forces in Aden earlier this month.

Saudi Arabia has empowered its favorite political representative, Hadi, and is keen to secure ties with the Southern Transitional Council, which has become increasingly important after his participation in the Riyadh peace talks, which the UAE must deal with, Hadi said.

He says Saudi Arabia supports Hadi rather than seeking to promote stability in Yemen, because it gives it legitimacy to interfere in the country's politics, adding that this is Saudi Arabia's long-term strategy in Yemen, rather than achieving the official goal of fighting the Houthis.

Absence of legitimacy
Although Hadi is the UN-recognized president, he is increasingly illegal in Yemeni society, especially since he has been absent in Riyadh for more than four years and thus has been unable to provide adequate security and services to Yemen.

He believes that the coup of the Southern Transitional Council initially threatened such an impact, especially since the UAE was basically supporting this group, and says that if no agreement was reached, the Southern Transitional Council would have taken control of much of the south.

He says Saudi Arabia is seeking the satisfaction of the Southern Transitional Council, with the aim of reunifying the government and separatists against the Houthis, who represent Riyadh's main rival in Yemen, foreshadowing another violent reaction in an already devastated country. .

With the Houthi incursion since September 2014 and the seizure of the capital Sana'a, as well as a partial allegation of opposition to corruption and outside interference in Yemen, the deal, which they are not a party to, is likely to exacerbate hostility in the country.

Another conflict
He says that although the Houthis supported a ceasefire in September, the deal could spark another conflict, even if it appears to be aimed at stopping violence between the government and separatists.

While the peace agreement and the support Hadi receives hinders the UAE's ambitions in Yemen, it can still use the Southern Transitional Council as a lever for greater autonomy in the south.

He adds that the UAE could seek to impose its will on the south and control its strategic ports.

The UAE is now working more realistically to maintain the image of the "peacemaker" and its alliance with Saudi Arabia, but there will still be differences between these two powers.

International actors must reduce the involvement of these forces in order to achieve real security and stability in Yemen.

He concludes that the vast humanitarian crisis in Yemen remains a more pressing issue, where civilians are the real victims of such power struggles.