• CIS. More than 7 million voters who still doubt who to vote will decide the outcome of the elections
  • Average polls. So are all the surveys for the next 10-N
  • Sigma Dos.Vox Tracking for the first time breaks the 40-seat roof

Only seven months after the elections in April, and with politicians and political parties considered the main problem (after unemployment) for the Spaniards, participation will be one of the keys on November 10. The will of the electors to approach their electoral college can make a difference with respect to 28-A. Asked about their intention to go to vote, two thirds of the respondents respond that they will do so "surely", according to the pre-election macro-survey of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) published yesterday and conducted between September 21 and October 13 .

The work, which does not take into account possible effects derived from the publication of the procession of the process or the exhumation of Franco, also reflects that 32.3% of those who are predisposed to vote have not yet decided the meaning of their vote. In the absence of an estimate of participation by the CIS, other variables that have served as a thermometer of participation in recent calls anticipate an increase in abstention that could exceed eight points.

In addition, regardless of the vote estimate and the allocation of seats, the study of direct indicators such as fidelity or mobilization helps to understand the dynamics within each electorate, such as the collapse in the expectations of Citizens or the great improvement of the Party Popular that have collected for weeks the rest of demographic works.

On the mobilization side, the number of respondents who affirm without any doubts that will be mobilized in the generals has been a good approximation to the participation data, without considering the CERA vote (of those who live abroad), during the last decade. In the pre-election of April, the number of respondents totally convinced of going to vote was 76.3%, very close to 75.75% registered after the polls closed.

With all the precautions for the date of the field work , now the proportion of convinced to go to the polls would be nine points lower (67.3%) compared to the April study of the CIS, which together with the margin of error of the survey I would predict a drop in participation between 8 and 10 points compared to 28-A . Three years ago, after the repetition of the generals, in June 2016, with the same indicator, the study of the public body picked up a fall of 4.3 points (the real decline on election night was 3.4 points).

The analysis of the data by formations shows that between 75-80% of those who opted in April for the PSOE, PP, Unidos Podemos or Vox would be activated again , a fact that does not reach 70% among those who opted for Cs.

It is at the time of choosing ballot , as it has been happening since 2015, with the emergence of Podemos and Citizens, when doubts arise . The decision is increasingly delayed: in April, the undecided were 42% (up to 30.5% of the voters would have waited for the campaign or the same election day of 28-A, according to the CIS post-election for those elections ). Now, given the short time between one call and another, the Spanish would have something clearer. Again, the figures differ between games.

The formation chaired by Albert Rivera registers the worst numbers again. Among those who plan to vote in the next generals, almost half of those who voted orange have not yet opted for specific acronyms, a percentage that falls to 29% in the cases of the PSOE and UP and 25% among those who bet on Pablo Married. Vox voters are the ones who have it clearer : 80% have already decided who to vote for next 10-N.

The 1.6 million votes at stake in Cs

Although the data of Cs is very similar to that of the pre-election of April, its reading along with the flows between candidates, measured by the sum of the direct vote (intention to vote) and the sympathy -party felt by those who doubt their vote or they say they will abstain-, explains the crash that all probes are currently forecasting. Rivera only retains 49% of its support compared to 28-A, a level similar to April (then it was 55%).

The problem for Cs is that, now, the arrival of voters from other parties is much lower than that of the previous elections, when it was less than one point of the popular, so that it is even enough to compensate for the leaks that occur in direction to the PP, PSOE and Vox (with all of them it registers a negative balance), which would subtract around 800,000 votes, according to EL MUNDO estimates from the raw data of the CIS. Cs also has the highest rate of potential abstentionists , 19.5% of respondents, which would mean 810,000 fewer votes if they finally decide to stay at home.

Apart from the orange formation, vote transfers draw behaviors similar to those of April in terms of ideological blocks. Voter exchanges occur between the closest parties on the left-right axis. Thus, the PP , in addition to loyalty to 75% of its voters (20 points more than the April study), would attract about 10% of Cs and 13% of Vox (about 730,000 votes) compared to about 300,000 Married ballots that would make the reverse path.

The option represented by Santiago Abascal keeps 70% of those who supported him in April, while the comings and goings of support leave a balance of almost zero. In that way, Vox would approach the numbers of 28-A , which together with a scenario of falling participation , would make their votes have a superior performance when it comes to becoming seats, as most polls have indicated. most recent.

On the left side, the emergence of Íñigo Errejón, with Más País, would be nourished, above all, by 1.4% of votes from the PSOE and almost 7% that would be taken from United Podemos and its Catalan confluence (In Comú Podem).

Regarding April, the support of the Socialists would stagnate or recede slightly , with demobilization as the main problem (12.4% of those who bet on Pedro Sánchez on 28-A would not vote), almost residual transfers to PP, Cs , Vox and some 270,000 ballots that would go to UP (almost the same ones that would arrive from the purple formation). In turn, those of Pablo Iglesias, apart from the PSOE and Más País, have abstention (8.6%) and, to a lesser extent, in ERC and the CUP their greatest rivals.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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  • Citizens
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