“Development of relations in an upward relationship”: what will Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban talk about at a meeting in Budapest

October 30, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives on an official visit to Hungary. This was previously reported by the press secretary of the Russian leader Dmitry Peskov. The head of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry, Peter Siyarto, also told reporters about the preparation of negotiations between the Russian president and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

According to the Kremlin’s press service, during the visit, Vladimir Putin expects to discuss trade, economics and the international agenda with the Hungarian leadership. The trip was organized at the invitation of the head of the Hungarian government.

Gas issue

Mutual visits by Russian and Hungarian leaders are fairly regular. So, the previous negotiations of politicians took place in September last year during a trip to Moscow by Viktor Orban. Then the parties concentrated on discussing energy issues.

The gas issue is of particular importance for Hungary, since the republic is aimed at creating a large gas hub for Central Europe on its territory /

• Gas compressor station, Ukraine
• Reuters
• © Gleb Garanich

In addition, Budapest hoped to increase gas imports from Romania after a large onshore field was discovered there in 2017. At the beginning of last year, Viktor Orban announced that the Hungarian government plans to supply about 4 billion cubic meters from a neighboring country. m of gas per year. This would cover slightly less than half the total annual consumption of natural gas in Hungary - 9 billion cubic meters. m. Note that on average, Russian imports account for about 5 billion cubic meters. m. fuel per year.

However, according to experts, the cost of natural gas production in Romania was quite high, and therefore fuel from the Russian Federation remains one of the most competitive offers in the European gas market.

Recall that Russian natural gas is supplied to Eastern and Central Europe through Ukrainian territory. However, the crisis in relations between Kiev and Moscow threatened the future of this supply chain: the current transit contract expires on December 31. Now Russia, Ukraine and the European Commission are negotiating the extension or renegotiation of the agreement on transit deliveries through the Ukrainian GTS. However, experts have so far refrained from making any forecasts based on the results of these consultations, since Kiev has chosen the tactics of ultimatums for itself.

The prospect of a possible stop of transit through Ukraine is very worrying for Budapest. At the beginning of this year, Hungary, according to Peter Siyyarto, received guarantees from Gazprom to supply fuel in 2020, even if the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations were unsuccessful. The head of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry added that the republic has been counting on the supply of fuel through the Turkish Stream gas pipeline under construction now since the second half of 2021.

“In our case, the more pipelines, the better. New supply routes are very important for us, which is why we are cooperating with our Bulgarian and Serbian colleagues, ”said the Minister.

The issue of gas export from Russia is one of the key issues in bilateral relations at the moment, Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of Moscow State Pedagogical University, noted in a commentary on RT.

“Hungary has established itself as a responsible partner, as a country interested in further development with Moscow in the gas sector. Budapest has always taken a constructive position with respect to Russian gas exports to Europe. In this direction, Russian-Hungarian relations will continue to develop steadily, ”Shapovalov explained.

In turn, Alexander Stykalin, a leading employee of the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized in an interview with RT that "for the Hungarian side, economic issues are of priority importance."

“Budapest depends on Russia in gas and oil supplies, therefore, of course, leaders will address this issue,” Stykalin believes.

He also added that while in the framework of bilateral negotiations, the Russian side, as a rule, is more interested in the political aspects of relations, for Hungary the economic sphere remains a priority.

Peaceful atom

It is worth noting that the energy agenda in the dialogue between the two countries is not limited to gas issues. Cooperation in the field of nuclear energy also plays an important role.

As Vadim Trukhachev, Ph.D. in History and lecturer of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy of the Institute of Foreign Languages, said, in today's conversation, one of the most important issues in Hungary in this area is the construction of the Paks-2 nuclear power plant.

Budapest is in no hurry to follow the example of EU partners who have embarked on a complete rejection of nuclear energy. Therefore, back in 2014, an agreement was reached between the Hungarian and Russian leaders on the construction by Rosatom of the Paks-2 nuclear power plant in the republic. However, this project was faced with resistance within the European Union: Austria opposed financing of construction from pan-European funds and filed a lawsuit in the European Court.

• Construction of the Paks-2 NPP
• © ROSATOM

However, in March 2019, the EU nevertheless approved the construction of the Paks-2 NPP - in mid-October, the Hungarian side approved the technical design of the future station.

“The agreements in the field of peaceful atom remain relevant and important for Budapest,” states Stykalin.

According to experts, the economic block of issues will not be limited to energy; leaders can also discuss trade. Today, Hungary occupies 21st place in Russia's commodity circulation; the total volume of mutual trade is about $ 7 billion a year.

Convergence Policy

According to experts, Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban will most likely raise a number of political issues as part of the meeting.

So, leaders can touch on Ukrainian issues - both Hungary and Russia are concerned about the policies pursued by the Kiev authorities in relation to national minorities.

“Most likely, Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban can discuss, among other things, the language policy of the Ukrainian authorities, which affects the interests of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine, as well as ethnic Hungarians living in Transcarpathia. It is this issue that has complicated relations between Kiev and Budapest in recent years, ”suggested Vadim Trukhachev.

• AFP
• © DANIEL MIHAILESCU

Recall that last year a diplomatic scandal broke out between Kiev and Budapest due to the issuance by the Hungarian authorities of passports to compatriots living in Ukraine. In Kiev, they threatened to deprive these people of Ukrainian citizenship, while the Hungarian Foreign Ministry regarded this as an attempt to intimidate the Hungarian population of Transcarpathia. Ukraine then declared the Hungarian consul in Beregovo persona non grata. In Budapest, Kiev responded to this step symmetrically, sending to the homeland of the Ukrainian consul in the capital.

Budapest has repeatedly called on Kiev to stop the infringement of the rights of national minorities. In protest, Hungary has blocked the work of the Ukraine-NATO commission at the level of ministers and heads of state for the past two years. However, the Ukrainian authorities not only make no concessions, but, on the contrary, impose new restrictions on national minorities.

Russia and Hungary have long been linked by warm relations that the leaders of both countries are trying to develop and increase, political scientists say. The cooling of relations between Moscow and the European Union, which followed against the backdrop of events in Ukraine and the sanctioned “war,” was contrary to the interests of Budapest, which was determined to strengthen ties with Russia, experts say.

“First of all, Hungary would like to normalize relations between Russia and the European Union. Moscow and Budapest have not only many common interests, but also the same point of view on many issues. Countries are steadily moving towards the development of relations between the Russian-Hungarian people in an ascending manner, taking into account the interests of national economies. It is important to note that the commitment of the elites of both states to conservative values ​​is a serious basis for building a constructive dialogue, ”said Vladimir Shapovalov.

A similar point of view is shared by Vadim Trukhachev. According to him, current relations between Russia and Hungary are a fairly “calm pragmatic partnership”.

“However, the limits of this partnership are still limited by the European Union, since Hungary depends on Brussels funds and financial support. But the republic, nevertheless, still pursues an independent policy, albeit sometimes in a limited format, ”the expert explained.

In turn, Alexander Stykalin recalled that the meetings of Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban are held annually, and leaders regularly discuss current issues.

“This time, they are also likely to discuss a wide range of topics, including the situation in Europe, as well as in other regions, for example, in the Middle East. Relations between Russia and Hungary are generally stable. It is important for Orban to develop a dialogue with Moscow, because in this way he maintains his image of an independent politician in the eyes of not only his electorate, but also in the international arena, ”the expert summed up.