ON DECRYPT
Her death has been announced many times since 2014. On Sunday, she was officially confirmed by Donald Trump. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, head of the Islamic State was killed during a US military operation in northern Syria. Beyond the exact circumstances of his death are the questions of the future of the region in geopolitical terms.
How did US forces neutralize Baghdadi?
Everything started with intelligence, which obviously came from Kurdish forces. They located Baghdadi, along with his two wives and children, in the Idlib region of northwest Syria. More specifically, the head of the Islamic State is placed in the house of a jihadist cadre in the village of Barisha, seven kilometers from the Turkish border.
An assault group is then formed with a commando of special forces and the CIA. In fact, this commando has permission to intervene for two weeks already. But Baghdadi moving often, it was only in the night from Saturday to Sunday that he could intervene.
Eight helicopters land the commando. The special forces then neutralize the guards and then find Baghdadi. "We knew there were traps and tunnels," said Donald Trump, who watched everything live from the "situation room", the secure White House room for the most sensitive meetings. In fact, the head of the Islamic State took refuge in one of these tunnels with three of his children as human shields. When he is about to be captured, he unlocks his explosive belt, killing the three children with him. The tunnel then collapses and US soldiers must clear to access the mutilated body and pieces, according to Donald Trump, never stingy with morbid details.
Are we certain that Baghdadi is really dead?
The American commando had brought Baghdadi's DNA to be able to make the identification immediately on the spot. The head of the Islamic State has therefore been formally identified. This certainly did not prevent Russia from declaring that it had "no reliable information" on an "umpteenth death" of Baghdadi. Moscow has also raised "contradictory details" in the narrative of the US intervention.
For Frédéric Encel, PhD in geopolitics, lecturer at Science Po Paris and specialist in the Middle East, this Russian reaction is more of a posture. "The Russians have an interest in considering that the Americans are not the masters of the field and that they could perfectly have done it too," he explains on Europe 1. "There is something humiliating for Moscow. to admit that the Americans managed to shoot down the public enemy n ° 1 in an area which belongs to them "in theory.
Is it the death of the Islamic State?
According to Donald Trump anyway, the territorial "caliphate" of the Islamic State was defeated since last March. The death of Baghdadi is only another nail in his coffin. And in fact, in an organization as pyramidal as Daesh, the death of the leader is a very hard blow.
Nevertheless, many politicians and observers are much more cautious, like Emmanuel Macron. "The death of al-Baghdadi is a blow against Daesh, but it is only a step." The fight continues, "said the French president, saying that the final defeat of the Islamic State was a" priority "of Paris. Same story on Boris Johnson's side. This is "an important moment in our fight against terror, but the battle against the scourge of Daesh is not over," said the British prime minister.
"Daesh is primarily a radical Islamist ideology, one of the heads has been cut but the ideology remains," confirms Frédéric Encel. The Islamic State had already begun to moult as soon as its military defeats in Iraq and then in Syria, going into hiding with dormant cells. They still have real military means to wage a war of harassment. Especially since the Turkish offensive in northern Syria against the Kurdish forces opens up new and unexpected prospects.
Should we fear retaliation?
Vigilance is essential, although it will inevitably take a few months for a new figure to emerge and impose itself internally. It had been seen after the death of Osama bin Laden. His successor, Ayman Zawihri, has never been able to take the same stature, but Al-Qaeda is not dead, has adapted, and still represents a danger.
In any event, if there is a reprisal, they will most likely not be directed against US forces remaining in Syria. "They are well protected against radical Islamists, even if the American bases can undergo retaliatory attempts," said Frédéric Encel. But according to him, it is the Kurdish forces who are in the front line.