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The candidate of Frente Amplio Daniel Martinez during his last campaign meeting, October 23, 2019 in Montevideo. REUTERS / Mariana Greif

The Frente Amplio, a left-wing coalition that has been in power for 15 years, is leading the polls, but it could be a trompe-l'oeil victory.

The Uruguayans vote three times this Sunday : to choose their new president, to renew their Parliament and to validate or not a proposal for constitutional reform.

Thanks to a surge in polls in recent weeks, the Frente Amplio is almost certain to top the legislative elections this Sunday night. But except for surprise, he should not get a parliamentary majority and the formation of the current president Tabaré Vazquez will have trouble to make alliances, as she federated the other parties against her.

The different formations of the right cumulative indeed a little more than 50% of the intentions of vote. This is also why Daniel Martinez, the candidate of the Frente Amplio to the presidency, is currently announced loser in the second round against Luis Lacalle Pou, the candidate of the Partido nacional, ranked right.

A referendum on the presence of soldiers on the streets against insecurity

If it will be difficult to know this Sunday evening if Uruguay will take a conservative turn after 15 years of left-wing government, the result of the referendum on the constitutional reform carried by the Partido nacional, could give indications.

To combat growing insecurity in Uruguay , the bill includes the creation of a life sentence and the conferral of police operations on the army. The outcome of the referendum on this controversial reform remains very uncertain.