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Peronist candidate Alberto Fernandez, who runs with former president Cristina Kirchner as a running mate, is a favorite in the polls against center-right outsider Mauricio Macri.
With our correspondent in Buenos Aires, Jean-Louis Buchet
According to all the polls, the Peronist Alberto Fernandez should be elected from this first round. According to the electoral law of Argentina, it is enough for him to obtain 45% of the votes, even less than the primaries of the month of August , where he imposed himself with more than 47% of the votes.
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But given the difficulties awaiting the president who will take office on December 10, a narrow victory could be dangerous for him. On the other hand, if he was well over 50%, Alberto Fernandez would receive a clear mandate from voters to deal with the recession, fight inflation and renegotiate debt.
For his part, the liberal Mauricio Macri , who has made a very dynamic campaign, hopes to exceed his score in the primary. If despite the economic crisis, the outgoing president settled above 35% of the vote, he could consolidate a block of opposition to the future Peronist government. Especially since he has missed the voices of two right-wing candidates and a centrist who did not withdraw.
Reduce economic stability
The winner of the election must in any case manage a very difficult economic situation. " The urgency is financial stability. What will happen with the dollar? Will the race of the Argentineans to protect themselves from the devaluations will calm down? And will they stop withdrawing their money from the banks? Asks Marcos Cohen Arazi, an economist at the Institute of Reality Studies of Argentina and Latin America (IERAL).
In the August elections the large advance of the Peronist ticket Alberto Fernandez - Cristina Kirchner, had frightened the markets and dropped the peso Argentine nearly 20% against the dollar. So in the face of uncertainty, the dollar has already risen in recent days.
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" The most urgent thing is to curb foreign exchange and avoid the rush on banks, and that's related to debt. A clear strategy is needed to explain how we will finance the fiscal imbalance in the future, he continues. Candidates have different strategies, but the most important thing to consider is that no one can solve the problem alone. In fact, it would have been necessary to agree on these matters, so that no matter who the winner is, the opponent is working together for Argentina to achieve financial and economic stability . "
A priori excluded, the hypothesis of a second round, if Fernandez did not reach the 45%, would change the game completely.