The International Crisis Group (an NGO based in Brussels) has published recommendations for peace in eastern Ukraine. Experts emphasize that Kiev should act “with caution” in connection with the adopted Steinmeier formula. At the same time, they continue to argue that Russia allegedly supports militia forces in the Donbass.

"This decision (the adoption of the Steinmeier formula. - RT ) is welcomed, but Ukraine must act carefully to increase the chances of reaching a settlement," the organization’s document reads to RT.

The work of the group is supported by the governments of several states. For example, last year, Qatar, Norway and Sweden made the largest contribution. In addition, among the sponsors listed fund of the American billionaire George Soros.

The Steinmeier formula is the mechanism for enacting the law on the special procedure for local self-government in certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. It is expected that local elections will be held in the republics, but before the vote, the law on special status will be applied on a temporary basis, and after the election and recognition of them fair by the OSCE, the law will gain final legal force. On October 1, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that Kiev had agreed on the text of the Steinmeier formula, which should be implemented in Ukrainian legislation.

However, before proceeding to the elections, the conflicting parties must withdraw forces from the front line, where the settlements of Zolotoe and Petrovskoye are located. The implementation of even this step is in doubt, according to the International Crisis Group.

As explained in the document, one of the reasons is Russia's refusal to guarantee the withdrawal of "supported" troops.

“A number of pro-government forces openly opposed the withdrawal of troops. In turn, Russian-backed militias declare a reluctance to withdraw troops and doubt that Kiev will be able to convince its own troops to do the same. Meanwhile, Moscow refused to guarantee the withdrawal of the forces it supports, on the basis that it does not control them, ”experts say.

Moscow has repeatedly denied Russia's involvement in the internal conflict in Ukraine.

The West continues to repeat the myth of "Russian aggression" in Ukraine, said political analyst Ivan Mezyuho. In his opinion, it is obvious that the authorities in Kiev do not plan to fulfill their obligations under the Steinmeier formula.

“Ukraine is not going to fulfill its obligations. In fact, the government represented by President Zelensky was frightened by the pressure of the radicals and fears more serious protests in the future. In the near future, thousands of reasons will be found that will justify Kiev’s failure to comply with the prescribed provisions, ”he said in an interview with RT.

Professor of the Department of Comparative Political Science of RUDN University, Yuriy Pochta, in turn, recalled that from the very beginning Ukraine rejected both the Minsk Agreement and the Steinmeier formula, and its Western partners approved such a policy by their actions.

“The West for five years fully supported Kiev’s policy of non-compliance with the Minsk agreements, reproaching only in words. Implementation of the agreements was not in the interests of Kiev, nor Brussels, nor Berlin or Paris, ”the expert explained.

  • Residential building in the village of Staromikhaylovka in the city of Donetsk after shelling
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  • © Sergey Averin

Protracted process

The separation of troops on the contact line was planned for October 7, but this has not yet happened. The Ukrainian side claims that shelling is allegedly taking place in the region, and seven “days of silence" are required to begin the withdrawal of forces. In the meantime, the LPR and DPR declare their readiness to begin the process at any time, indicating that the Ukrainian security forces are disrupting the events.

“The LNR made three attempts to breed in the aforementioned area, but never received a response from the Ukrainian side, which was confirmed by representatives of the OSCE SMM,” said on October 11 the head of the LPR representative office in the Joint Center for the Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire Mikhail Filiponenko.

The republic also emphasized that Kiev had broken the agreement because of the position of the nationalists. On the day of the first planned divorce, the Azov regiment, formed by right-wing radicals to participate in the fighting in the south-east of the country, took up positions near Zolotoy in protest against Steinmeier’s formula.

According to the head of the unit, Andrei Biletsky, if the president does not fulfill his duty to “protect every inch of Ukrainian land,” then volunteers will do it. “This is our last checkpoint, and we promise that we will never leave it,” he said.

On October 23, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky announced that Kiev had fulfilled its part of its obligations and called for a summit of the “Norman Four” to be convened.

Diplomatic game

The International Crisis Group also speaks of the need to hold a summit in the Norman format. The organization is confident that negotiations with Germany and France will "clarify the sequence of steps."

“Despite the inevitable obstacles and disturbing signals on the ground, the agreement of Kiev and Moscow with the formula should at least make it possible to hold a new meeting in the framework of the Norman format. This would allow for the first time since October 2016 to hold negotiations with the participation of two countries (as well as France and Germany) and provide them with the opportunity to further clarify the sequence of steps outlined in the Minsk agreements, ”the document says.

Meanwhile, Moscow believes that Kiev is insisting on a meeting of four countries in order to review the terms of the signed agreements.

“There is a feeling that the Ukrainian side is demanding a Norman summit to revise the agreements of the previous meetings of the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France. It will be just a blow to the reputation of the “Norman Four,” and we will do everything to prevent this, ”said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on October 10.

According to the International Crisis Group, Kiev should develop a strategy for informing the public about the provisions of the Steinmeier formula in order to prevent mass protests.

Earlier, marches against the actions of the authorities took place on the streets of the Ukrainian capital. Thousands of supporters of nationalist movements took to the streets under the slogan "No surrender."

In addition, Kiev should plan steps to restore ties with residents of the territories "held by the separatists." In particular, to establish transport links and offer to soften the law on the use of the Russian language.

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These tips are unlikely to be accepted by the ruling circles, Mezujo believes. The President of Ukraine is not able to agree with nationalists who do not contribute to the ceasefire, the expert said. In addition, according to representatives of the DPR and LPR, government forces themselves are shelling the territory of Donbass.

“Of course, Ukraine does not intend to punish itself, so the group’s recommendations will not be implemented. Kiev can only “listen” in words, ”the political scientist concluded.