A Gantz-led government is a bet on Netanyahu's corruption to avoid a third round

Muhammad Mohsen Wad-Occupied Jerusalem

Israeli President Reuven Rivlin on Wednesday night charged Benny Gantz, head of the White Blue coalition, to form a government after Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged his failure to maintain the right-wing coalition.

The coalition will negotiate with the parties over a 28-day period to form a government headed by Gantz to avoid a third election. In the event of failure, the letter will be assigned to the Knesset to choose one of its members with the support of 61 deputies and give it 21 days to form a government.

Gantz went immediately to the leadership of the ultra-orthodox ultra-orthodox parties to join the coalition, as well as the Likud party, which will delegate a delegation representing the right bloc to negotiate with the White Blue to form a broad national unity government to prevent a third election that would cost the Treasury $ 500 million. A Channel 13 poll showed that a third election will not change the distribution of seats and the results will be close to last September's elections.

The political and partisan circles are watching the government's Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit and Attorney General Shai Nitzan settle corruption cases against Netanyahu. If the files are resolved by filing indictments against him, that means the end of Netanyahu's political process.

Resolve and negotiate
In addition to waiting for a decision on the files of Netanyahu and the possibility of a trial, the data and the balance of power between the camps of the right and the center (center) to the impossibility of forming any government if Netanyahu insisted on sticking and fortified the chair, in order to seek immunity and face corruption files directed against, while he is in the prime minister's chair , And his willingness to go to a third parliamentary election.

Although Gantz's chances of succeeding in forming a government are as weak as his predecessor, Netanyahu, analysts agree that Gantz has succeeded in failing to achieve much more experienced politicians, such as former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, where General Gantz managed to undermine Netanyahu's position and weaken him. And impose a new agenda and balances of new forces in the political scene.

Unlike Netanyahu's 55-member right-wing bloc, the 52-member Blue White coalition, led by Avigdor Lieberman of the Yisrael Beitenu party, insists on forming a national unity government free of Netanyahu's corruption and Labor-Gesher coalition. Amir Peretz and the "Democratic Camp" headed by Nitzan Horovich.

The joint list headed by Ayman Odeh, comprising 13 deputies, remains a candidate to be a block and support for the Gantz government from outside the coalition government, but analysts are unlikely to achieve such a scenario, and they are likely to go to the third parliamentary elections in spring 2020, if Gantz did not succeed in dismantling the right bloc Supporting Netanyahu.

Consequences and repercussions
According to Yossi Verter, Haaretz's party affairs editor, the failure of Netanyahu to form a government for the second time in less than a year has a psychological impact on Netanyahu, and the fact that Gantz is tasked with forming a government is a detailed step in the partisan arena, the political system and the Israeli public, which has been used since 2006. Netanyahu's scene and his contacts to form a government.

While Gantz will seek through negotiations to form a narrow coalition government and dismantle even parts of the right-wing bloc, Verter said: "Netanyahu will step up the attack on Gantz, Lieberman and a blue-white alliance, as well as discredit the judicial system, the government adviser, the attorney general and his staff. Regarding the hearings and the corruption files of Netanyahu and his trial. "

On the other hand, Netanyahu, according to the estimates of the party affairs editor, will continue to dominate and control his Likud party to prevent any rebellion attempts led by former minister Gideon Sa'ar, as well as sticking to the right-wing bloc, and demanding its members loyalty again, especially former ministers Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett of the House Party. For fear of a split and a move to the Gantz camp.

Congresses and elections
Arab and Palestinian journalist Shlomi Eldar agrees with Verter's insistence that Netanyahu stick to the right-wing bloc and prevent any of its poles from "flirting" with Gantz and a "blue-white" alliance to thwart any attempt to form a government not headed by him.

However, Eldar believes that the possibility of dismantling the right's bloc is in mind, pointing out that there is no substantial value of the document signed by the right-wing parties represented by the "Jewish House" party as well as the two ultra-orthodox parties (Shas, Yehudet Torah) along with the Likud, stressing that if any conditions for partnership Or an alliance expected with Gantz, these long-standing partner parties of Netanyahu will withdraw from the document and the bloc and turn to their interests and agenda set by the "rabbis" and party leaders.

In order to prevent a scenario or the possibility of forming a narrow government headed by Gantz based on the Arab deputies on the joint list, Eldar does not rule out that Netanyahu persists in delegitimizing Arab citizens and inciting Arab leaders, to the extent that he and Likud describe the possibility of such a coalition as "treason, prejudice to state security." To promote that the Joint List poses an existential threat to Israel.

In such circumstances and the balance of power between the Jewish parties and in order to preserve the strength of the "blue-white" coalition among the Israelis, the specialist in Arab and Palestinian affairs believes that Gantz formed a government that relies on external support from the joint list as a very unlikely block.

Aldar attributed this to the possibility that such a government will not hold for a long time and to have to go to a third election, and the fear of the generals or Lieberman party to entrench the mentality and mentality of the Israelis that they "preferred the Arabs over a government of national unity" and therefore the most likely scenario - says Eldar - "Israel For a third parliamentary election in less than a year. "

On the sidelines of these developments, attention will be paid to the visit of US Presidential Adviser Jared Kushner next week, to meet with Netanyahu and Gants before the details of the "deal of the century".

As the US president looks ahead to Israeli government negotiations and his ally Netanyahu fails to maintain his coalition to enable Washington to reveal details of the Middle East peace plan, attention is drawn to the outcome of the "blue-white" negotiations with various parties.