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In Sochi, on the shores of the Black Sea, begins this Wednesday, October 23, 2019 of a Russia-Africa summit. Forty African leaders are received by Vladimir Putin for an appointment presented as a replica of those organized by France or China with their African partners. A first.
With our special envoys in Sochi,
The event is to symbolize Russia's "big comeback" on the African continent. In 20 years, Vladimir Putin has made only three trips to sub-Saharan Africa. But now, the Russian Federation keeps repeating that Africa is " important " in his eyes. Moscow wants to open markets, find diplomatic and strategic relays on the continent. To do this, the Russians still have strong arguments.
Aware of its delay, Russia is therefore healing its rhetoric. It tries to make forget that it deserted Africa at the fall of the Soviet Union; it also tries to stand out from its Western competitors, playing on sensitive strings, namely its absence of colonial past and its defense of the principle of sovereignty. And to recall in particular the role played by the USSR earlier, at the time of independence, reports our special correspondent , Florence Morice .
A historical relationship maintained with a large number of African countries at the time. " Not only does it not have a colonial past like France, Belgium or others, but it has a history of anti-colonial struggle on which it tries to capitalize, analyzes Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory of France. Moscow. And this is quite true: the USSR had invested heavily in financial terms, in military terms, in terms of influence. "
" Between Westerners who have a past or a colonial liability, who are watching over human rights, and Chinese who are a bit overwhelming, the Russians have one of the cards to play," says Dubien. They can offer several things: economic cooperation, the training of elites, sometimes security pacts for leaders who sometimes worry about their future at the head of their respective states. "
On Monday, Putin accused some former colonial powers in the press of practicing " intimidation " and " blackmail " to maintain their influence on the continent. He asks for " no compensation " from his partners, he insists. Russia also regularly reminds Africans that it has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, which it used for example to protect its Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad ...
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Undoubtedly to stand out from China, accused of dragging Africa into overindebtedness, Moscow highlights its policy of debt cancellation, inherited from the Soviet era, and its willingness to found a balanced cooperation. A speech that masks the financial weakness of Russia, compared to the Chinese giants. But in any case, trade between Russia and Africa amounts to $ 20 billion, which has been steadily increasing in recent years.
Moscow's renewed interest in Africa is not new, it goes back some fifteen years. The turning point nevertheless dates from the year 2014. At the time, Moscow annexed the Crimea, the West responded with economic sanctions. As a result, Russia must find new markets to revive its growth, which has already slowed since 2008. It decides to bet on the African continent, to stop leaving this promising market to China.
At the heart of the Russian offensive in Africa, arms sales. But the Russians also sell cereals - a lot - to African countries, and it wants to win markets in other sectors. Moscow has many cards to play, says Andrei Maslov, a specialist in relations between Russia and Africa: " Our approach, he says, is different from that of the Chinese or the Europeans. Above all, we want to develop our exports to Africa. "
Many business leaders are expected in Sochi, and contract signatures are announced. Russian exports to Africa doubled in less than four years. In terms of weapons, its strong point, Russia team including Algeria or Egypt. In addition to expanding grain sales, Moscow also expects to expand its commercial offensive in hydrocarbons and the civilian nuclear sector.
Africa is full of minerals and hydrocarbons. Russian stocks are not inexhaustible. Nevertheless, " we are very little interested in its raw materials," says Maslov. It is the African market that interests us above all. It is growing constantly and the number of consumers is increasing. Since 2014, it is to Africa that our exports are growing the most, products that we manufacture and not raw materials. "
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Lastly, Moscow also wants to diversify its customers on the African continent: for the moment, it carries out 80% of its exchanges with North Africa. The Sochi summit will therefore be a golden opportunity for Russian companies to venture into new sectors and other areas, with the support of the Russian authorities, explains our second special envoy for this Russian-African summit, our correspondent in Moscow Daniel Vallot .
For the rest, the economic issue is coupled with a political strategy. After its diplomatic return to the Middle East, thanks to the crisis in Syria, Russia wants to establish its status as a world power. By advancing her pawns in Africa, she gains points in her confrontation with the West. Not to mention that African countries represent almost a third of the votes in the UN General Assembly, and therefore constitute a reservoir of useful votes for Moscow.
Still, despite an offensive speech, Russia still has a long way to go, and has fallen far behind. Its trade with the continent is half as important as that of France, 10 times less than those of China. A dynamic that a summit will probably not be enough to reverse. The return of Africa to Russia is not always easy, and it has been accompanied in the past by a number of failures, particularly in South Africa.
In this country, recalls Arnaud Dubien, " Russia had invested a lot in terms of influence, notably through Rosatom, which was hoping to win the country's major electrification program. We see that there has been a failure. There are other contracts that have been signed and that have not been realized. " What must be good, too," he adds, " is that Africa, unlike probably the Middle East, is a region that Russians are less familiar with. "
According to the director of the Franco-Russian Observatory in Moscow, Russia does not " necessarily have the depth of expertise and pro-African lobbies sufficient to mobilize the state apparatus ." Be careful not to overestimate the Russian influence. But it is certain that Russia intends to weigh more, and this desire is reflected in the organization of this summit. To gather in Sochi most of the African leaders constitutes in itself a very nice diplomatic blow.