The British House of Commons approved Tuesday evening the retirement law of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. It is the first time since Brexit that parliamentarians have managed to find a majority for a certain plan. This can therefore be called a symbolic victory. Around 8.30 p.m. Dutch time, however, there is another crucial mood that can throw a spanner in the works.
The parliamentarians will vote on Johnson's plans to have his law passed through parliament this week. He wants to do this at breakneck speed so that the United Kingdom can leave the EU in an orderly fashion on 31 October.
If the House of Commons finds its timetable ambitious, Johnson is expected to submit a motion for new elections. He has already indicated that he no longer wants to negotiate the Brexit with this parliament.
If the House of Commons does agree with its timetable for further legislative treatment, the next two days will be dominated by debate, after which the final vote will follow on Thursday.
It is far from certain that even then a majority of the lower house is in favor of the motion. During this so-called third reading, amendments may be submitted that could significantly change the deal. If the opposition fails to do this, it is possible that they will withdraw their support. In addition, there is a good chance that Johnson will withdraw his deal if the legislative changes are adopted.
If the retirement law also survives the third reading, it will still be dealt with by the House of Lords (equivalent of our First Chamber). The European Parliament is expected to come next Thursday, which will also have to give its approval.