By Sabine CessouPosted on 22-10-2019Modified the 22-10-2019 at 14:06

For the first time in Botswana, the party in power since independence is not sure of winning on October 23. He is facing an opposition coalition that could mark the first half-year since 1966.

The army refuses to be manipulated as an electoral argument, during a campaign that fires all the wood in Botswana. An opposition coalition candidate, Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), has posted photos of soldiers on social networks, whose working conditions he defends. However, the law indicates that the army is apolitical. The staff protested, to be better apostrophized by the opposition, which accuses him of taking sides, since the army carries aboard its planes the president in place.

For his part, the outgoing president , 58-year-old Mokgweetsi Masisi , minister's son, former actor and high school teacher, does not skimp on the means to secure the votes in favor of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), in power since the Independence in 1966: lowering of interest rates, moving of voting day from a Saturday to a Wednesday, with three consecutive days of paid vacation, and extension of the duration of the hunting season, which benefits employees living from this type of tourism.

An earthquake linked to the ruling party's fracture

Everything is good for tilting the electorate in one camp or the other, as the game is tight in Botswana for the first time. The reason ? A recent fracture within the BDP. A merciless ego struggle is played between former president Ian Khama , 66, who has switched to the opposition, and his successor Mokgweetsi Masisi, outgoing interim president who hopes to win. For the first time, the national liberation movement is playing a very tight game against the opposition, as in 2000 in Zimbabwe.

A flashback is needed to understand the ongoing earthquake in this small country in southern Africa, 2.3 million people, exemplary for the management of its diamond wealth and political stability. At the opposite of all heads of state who still want to be for life in Central Africa, President Ian Khama left office on April 1, 2018, 18 months from the end of his second term, to better respect the Constitution. , which limits to 10 years, two terms, the exercise of power. Taking it literally, Ian Khama, a military trainer, son of Seretse Khama, father of Independence and founder of the BDP, passed on April 1, 2018 to his vice president, Mokgweetsi Masisi. Then broke up with him a few months later, with a roar.

A new dissenting party

It is that Masisi, former Minister of Presidential Affairs and Administration (2011-2014) then Vice-President of the Republic and Minister of Education and Skills Development (2014-2018), wanted to go alone, at the head of a BDP already undermined by internal divisions. He not only made dramatic reversals of Ian Khama's flagship policies, such as the ban on elephant hunting, the breakdown of relations with China, or a 30% tax on alcohol, whose abuse is a societal problem.

He also refused to let Ian Khama interfere in any way with the management of the business. After launching a plan to fight corruption against Khama's relatives, he further angered Khama by appointing his younger brother, Tshekedi Khama, Minister of Youth and Sports. The dispute was so strong that Ian Khama declared the BDP " dead ", before founding with other dissidents a new opposition party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF).

It is less about programs than about people in these power struggles. Ian Khama does not introduce himself, but supports the young Biggie Butale, appointed president of the BPF in July 2019. Attorney and priest in an evangelical church, where he preaches against homosexuality and prostitution, Biggie Butale was also a member of parliament but has little chance of winning.

Strategic alliance with the opposition

Ian Khama has formed a strategic alliance with his fiercest critics during his presidency, opponents of the UDC, including the leader Duma Boko. The 50-year-old lawyer, who notably defended the Basarwa minority (Bushmen or Xhoisan) in 2004 when he was expelled from a national park in the Kalahari Desert, hopes to win. Especially since the general elections of October 2014, during which he had pierced with a score of 30% against the BDP (46.4% of votes), have already given a serious shot. The opposition he has led since won 17 of 57 seats in Parliament, compared to 37 in the BDP.

Is Ian Khama's alliance with the SVP an asset or handicap? It proves to be a double-edged sword, as it may displease a segment of opposition voters who find it hasty and opportunistic.

Will Botswana stop being run by the BDP, which has given it a series of five presidents in 53 years, Seretse Khama (1966-80), Quett Masire (1980-98), Festus Mogae (1998- 2008), Ian Khama (2008-18) and Mokgweetsi Masisi? The only certainty for the moment: the political recomposition in progress is followed very closely in South Africa, whose leaders are afraid that the African National Congress (ANC) will divide itself as seriously and thus run to ruin. From this perspective, the October 23 presidential election in Botswana is a test for all the former national liberation movements in power in southern Africa.

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