For some time, there have been important questions about what kind of preparations should be made in the US administration, ahead of possible negotiations with Iran over the nuclear issue. More recently, there have been growing indications that these preparations are under way at the White House or State Department, as President Donald Trump seems to believe he can solve the problem alone, and in one meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Looking back at what President Trump has done in North Korea, there is growing concern that he sees negotiations between the two sides from one perspective, which could have negative implications for dealing with Iran.
Unlike many analysts who have declared that the Trump campaign, which is one of the extreme pressures on Iran, has failed, it is different from what they say. The important fact is that mere talk of possible negotiations is the result of a campaign of pressure. If the Trump administration did not change its course on Iran, the overriding message would be that Iran is acceptable to the agreement and that everything is going well. But as a result of the steps taken by the United States over the past two and a half years, other powers have been forced to admit that there are mistakes in the agreement and should be addressed. Finally, European countries have taken closer steps toward the US approach, accusing Iran of being responsible for hitting Saudi oil facilities, and urging Iran to address the problematic issues of its nuclear and missile activities and to interfere in regional affairs. The new British prime minister, Boris Johnson, went further, declaring that the international nuclear deal with Iran was bad, and that another new agreement must be negotiated.
Negotiations will not be easy
Moreover, negotiations with the Iranians will not be easy, because the Iranian regime is completely different from North Korean President Kim Jong Un, whose father and grandfather all wanted for years to face-to-face negotiations with the Americans. It is enough for the North Korean leader to sit down with the US president, for him it is a great asset, and he is ready to do so to ease tensions between the two sides. But for Iran, these negotiations are the last thing Iranian leader Ali Khamenei wants.
In addition, Iran, unlike North Korea, is not a nuclear state, so the goal is not to ease tension in the relationship between Iran and the United States, but to negotiate a better nuclear agreement, a task that is not easy. US negotiators need to take a good look at Iran's strategies and negotiating tactics, dating back to 2003. They must understand that these negotiations will not be a win-win outcome for Iran to be either a nuclear state or prevented. There is no compromise between them that makes the parties satisfied.
But Iran is the party that blatantly violated the commitments it signed when it acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and began to lie and deceive the Nuclear Energy Organization over the development of the military nuclear field decades ago. Consequently, they are not equal in their attitude towards the super-Powers that demand that they return to their commitments. The fact that the superpowers demand that Iran fulfill this commitment at the negotiating table, not through military force, does not mean that this approach can be no less powerful in putting pressure on Iran. In fact, negotiations with Iran are essentially a game of forcing it to comply with what is required of it.
Discount
One of the most important things to avoid in negotiations with Iran is for negotiators to be decisive in their positions and not to make concessions. This was a clear lesson from the previous agreement negotiations. It was the P5 + 1 that initially made concessions to Iran, during the secret negotiations, which preceded the formal negotiations. But for the long period of negotiations between 2014 and 2015, observers noted that Iran had taken a hard line, refusing to make any concessions while the other six were making concessions.
Having received its first major concession from Iran, Iran realized that more such concessions would follow. At each concession, the United States and other nations believed that the agreement was within reach, prompting it to make another concession with a view to reaching a solution. The six countries were heavily exploited in the negotiation process after the Iranians realized they were eager to reach an agreement. This has enabled Iran to continue to press for more concessions. The result was a nuclear agreement far from the goals initially announced by the Obama administration.
But what we have seen recently from President Trump, after a campaign of pressure that has succeeded in creating influence for the United States, is that there are signs that he is making mistakes, as he is beginning to make concessions first. Although he is still exerting maximum pressure on Iran and adding further sanctions, he is also eager to meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, as well as French President Emmanuel Macron's proposal to provide Iran with $ 15 billion if it returns. To the terms of the previous agreement. Iran sees this eagerness as weakness, which it should use as much as possible, and that is certainly not a starting point for negotiations with Iran.
What is weakening Trump's ability to negotiate successfully with Iran is the erosion of US deterrence. This was evident following Iran's attack on Saudi facilities. Experts say President Trump should have responded more than economic sanctions.
No interest from anyone
At this time, little attention has emerged, neither from the Nuclear Energy Organization nor from the major powers dealing with the crisis, to reveal, finally, that Iran continues its military nuclear activities, based on original Iranian documents in the nuclear archive. Strangely, all reports of North Korea's nuclear and missile weapons progress, even from a research institute, were immediately recognized as correct and accurate. By comparison, reports of Iran's continued nuclear military activities were confronted with immediate skepticism. After the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, published Iran's nuclear weapons activities, The New York Times published a comprehensive analysis accusing Netanyahu of conducting an electoral movement that could not be trusted. The paper asked: If this information is true, why Netanyahu publishes now, why did not publish it before?
Iran's past
It is important to highlight Iran's past and recent military nuclear activities, because this round of negotiations must begin with a very clear message that Iran has been pursuing military nuclear capabilities for decades in violation of the NPT, deceiving the international community. In previous negotiations with the six countries, the military dimension of Iran's nuclear program has not been emphasized, which ultimately has negative consequences, while Iran demands that it be treated as a “natural” member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, including human rights. Confidentiality with the International Atomic Energy Organization.
This year's UN General Assembly meetings have passed without a "summit" between Presidents Trump and Rouhani, or even a phone call between them, which seems to be the best. If serious negotiations take place, the Trump administration must be fully prepared. At the same time, it must be firm in its lobbying campaign, and it continues to try to get European states to respond firmly to any aggression by Iran, to develop clear negotiating strategies, and to warn against making concessions first.
 € خبراء Experts believe that Trump should have responded to Iran targeting Saudi oil facilities more than just economic sanctions.
• Iran, unlike North Korea, is not a nuclear state, so the goal is not to ease the tension in the relationship between Iran and the United States, but to negotiate a better nuclear agreement, which is not an easy task.