• Survey.The PSOE falls below 28-A, the PP is approaching and Vox is placed as third force
  • Survey.Sanchez stagnates, Casado takes the leap and Rivera falls
  • Survey: PSOE drops three seats in five days and Vox relegates Citizens to fifth place

A week ends indelibly marked by the ruling of the Supreme Court and the violent protests it has unleashed in Catalonia. Events that have caused a movement in the electorate that, mainly, harms the PSOE and benefits Vox.

The tracking of Sigma Dos for EL MUNDO shows a frame, on October 18, in which the Socialists continue to slide downhill, losing two seats with respect to those who achieved 28-A.

Now they would be located at 121, six points away from the PP, which remains anchored a step away from the hundred deputies it has not yet reached. The popular have suffered slightly at the end of the week leaving a position. At this time they would get 97 seats, 31 more than in April.

The political debate centered on the Justice's own decision regarding the leaders of the procés , sentenced for sedition and embezzlement to prison sentences between 13 and nine years old, and the need to restore security and public order in Catalonia have penalized the expectations of the socialists.

PP, Citizens and Vox, on the one hand, require the Executive a clear intervention to curb secessionist revolts. The popular pose as a first step the application of the National Security Law; the oranges demand the activation of article 155 of the Constitution to put an end to the mandate of Quim Torra at the head of the Generalitat, and the radical right cries out for decreeing the state of exception with the limitation of rights and freedoms that this would entail.

Pedro Sánchez, at the head of the Government, has been played on the wire opting for a moderation formula under the principle that "moderation is also a form of strength." Prescription that, at least until this weekend, had hardly taken effect.

The ascent, for now continuous, of Vox, which is already noted, according to the survey, 36 seats and consolidates its position as a third political force, indicates that his speech against the ruling of the Supreme -which he describes as "shameful" by soft-, against the Generalitat - whose visible head, Torra, should "be handcuffed and imprisoned" immediately - and, of course, against the Government - which he accuses of "leaving functions by pure electoral calculation" -, is penetrating many voters tired of the independence challenge and suspicious of the possibility of finally making concessions to Catalonia to the detriment of the remaining autonomous communities.

Citizens relentless a firm discourse against independence, but its effect is already clearly insufficient to alleviate the collapse that has suffered in recent months. As if the voters did not forgive him for having missed the opportunity to touch power and balance a Government of Sanchez away from the influence of populism and nationalism.

Citizens bleed for the benefit of PP, PSOE and Vox. Pablo Casado receives 9.6% of the votes Albert Rivera obtained in April. Pedro Sánchez steals 6% and Vox, another 6%. In addition, almost 14% of its voters are currently aiming at abstention. Today, Rivera's party descends to the position of fifth parliamentary force. PSOE and Citizens are those who register, three weeks after the elections, more possible abstentionists.

United We, perhaps dragged by its ambiguous stance in relation to the secessionist challenge, also recedes into seats. He would achieve 32, 10 less than in April. The purple formation came two weeks ago to go up to 35, but in the last 10 days he has seen as Vox, despite having a point less in intention to vote, exceeds it already in four deputies.

In parallel, Más País, the new force led by Íñigo Errejón, would now score seven deputies. United We can transfer no less than 8.5% of your votes and the PSOE 3%.

With these new data, the leftist pact - PSOE, United We Can and More Country - would add 160 votes in Congress. Not even adding the seven seats that are predicted to the PNV would reach the bar of the absolute majority (176). To reach that figure, Sanchez would need the support, very explicitly well through abstention, of the independence parties.

Regarding the latter, it is worth noting the collapse of Junts (coalition between JxCat and PDeCAT) that, in just 15 days, has seen its forecast of seats reduced from seven to four, just the opposite that has happened to ERC, the party of Oriol Junqueras, the leader of the 1-O condemned to the highest prison sentence, which already scores 16 deputies, quadrupling the harvest that can be obtained by followers of the fugitive Carles Puigdemont.

The Spanish, meanwhile, hold the suspense for all political leaders. None even reaches four. Sanchez remains the best valued, with 3.76, followed by Pablo Casado with 3.56; Íñigo Errejón with a 3.52; Albert Rivera with a 3.28; Pablo Iglesias with a 3.26 and Santiago Abascal, lastly, with a 2.93.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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Poll EL MUNDO-Sigma DosThe PSOE falls below 28-A, the PP is approaching and Vox is positioned as the third force

SpainThe PSOE will run in the next elections, according to the CIS of Tezanos

Pedro Sánchez stagnates, Pablo Casado takes the leap and Albert Rivera falls