After a sudden turnaround .. Possible scenarios for Brexit

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has sent a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk asking for an extension of his country's exit from the bloc, after a House of Commons vote on a memorandum calling for Brexit to be postponed.

The French Press Agency quoted a source in the Prime Minister's Office that Johnson did not sign the letter in which he asked the European Union to postpone the Brexit scheduled for October 31, and that he followed it with another saying that he does not want to postpone.
Johnson is obliged to send the request by law, after lawmakers in the House of Commons on Saturday refused to back an agreement he reached with the EU on Brexit, but he still insists that Britain leave the EU as planned.

Possible scenarios following these developments are:

New postponement
This scenario is most likely after the House of Commons refused to vote on Johnson's agreement with Brussels at the last minute and after tough negotiations.

Under a law passed by the House of Commons in September and enacted by the amendment it endorsed on Saturday, the prime minister is obliged to ask the EU to postpone Brexit for three months, until January 31, 2020.

If the EU proposes a different date, Johnson should accept it.

But the British prime minister, who rejects any delay, said yesterday he had no intention of negotiating with the EU to delay Brexit.

It is noteworthy that any new postponement of Brexit requires the unanimous approval of the Europeans.

Exit by agreement
If the House of Commons approved Saturday to postpone the vote on the agreement, he did not reject it, and Johnson confirmed that his government will submit next week the bills necessary to implement this agreement.

Even if the EU agrees to postpone the Brexit, this does not prevent the UK from leaving the EU at the end of this month, if all the necessary provisions are passed by then.

The EU could also approve a short extension of Brexit to allow the House of Commons to vote on the agreement.

Exit without agreement
This possibility will automatically become a reality if the agreement is not approved by the end of this month, or if it is not agreed to postpone the date of divorce between Brussels and London.

This scenario is particularly worrisome for economic circles who fear that it could lead to a fall in the value of the pound (which could lead to higher prices) or even an economic recession, with the associated re-imposition of tariffs and the anticipated shortage of food, medicine and fuel supplies.

Johnson's government prepared the scenario, earmarking billions of pounds for measures to mitigate the shock.

Early elections
Whichever way Brexit will take place, the political crisis in the UK means that early parliamentary elections are inevitable and an option that all parties in the country are actively preparing.

Early elections can be held if this option is accepted by the main opposition party, the Labor Party, a proposal that the leftist party has so far rejected on the grounds that it first wants to rule out the Brexit hypothesis without agreement.

Johnson has made two attempts to call early elections, but they have failed to do so.

For the prime minister, early elections are the only chance to regain a majority that he has gradually lost, both because of the defection of his deputies or the expulsion of deputies who rebelled against him.

Second referendum
This option is defended by the Labor Party and was again demanded by hundreds of thousands of demonstrators who marched in central London on Saturday.

Former prime ministers John Major (Conservative) and Tony Blair (Labor) support the idea.

However, a new referendum needs the support of a parliamentary majority that does not seem to be available at the moment, and this option - which could stir up further divisions in the country - is not clear in the opinion polls.