During the protests in the capital of Lebanon, at least 52 members of the security forces were injured, and 70 participants in the demonstrations were detained. Such data are provided by local law enforcement agencies.

The situation in the country was so heated that the Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministry and a number of other states addressed their citizens with a warning about the risk of travel to Lebanon, and the Bahrain Foreign Ministry urged fellow citizens to immediately leave the republic.

Previously, information appeared that army units had been deployed in Beirut to assist the police in dispersing the demonstrators. This was reported by RIA Novosti with reference to eyewitnesses of the events. According to them, the military used rubber bullets against the rioters, the police used tear gas and water cannons. The protesters, in turn, threw stones at the police, began to burn tires, thus blocking the movement on almost all routes leading to Beirut.

Protests are held not only in the capital of Lebanon, but also in other cities of the republic. Demonstrators demand the resignation of the government and improve the economic situation in the country.

WhatsApp Tax

Recall that in September the Lebanese government declared a state of emergency in the national economy, since the republic’s external debt exceeded 150% of the country's GDP. Earlier, the Lebanese parliament, on the recommendation of the World Bank, adjusted the draft state budget for fiscal year 2019. According to the amendments, the budget deficit should decrease by 3.5% - from 11% to 7.5% of GDP. To achieve this goal, the Lebanese government took unpopular measures, cutting social spending and pensions for civil servants and the military.

The protests were provoked by the adoption by the government of a new package of measures aimed at replenishing the treasury. So, the authorities raised taxes on tobacco products to $ 1.3 per pack of imported cigarettes and $ 0.5 per pack of locally produced cigarettes, after which it was also announced plans to raise VAT from 11 to 15% by 2022.

But the population’s most outrage was caused by the government’s decision to impose a tax on the use of services for free calls and messages, such as WhatsApp. For their use, it was planned to charge citizens $ 6 per month, despite the fact that Lebanon has very high prices for mobile services. For example, a minute of conversation can cost about $ 0.25, so WhatsApp is very popular among the population.

  • Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri
  • Reuters
  • © Mohamed Azakir

Mass protests that began on the evening of October 17 forced the government to abandon the tax on the use of the messenger - on October 18, Lebanon's Minister of Communications Muhammad Shukeyr announced this. In turn, the head of government Saad Hariri said that he gives the Cabinet 72 hours to prepare answers to his questions about resolving the crisis.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun met with a delegation of protesters. The politician promised that he would take measures to address issues raised by participants in speeches.

On the eve of the protests spoke on the eve of the Lebanese Foreign Minister, Jebran Basil. The diplomat believes that mass protests can lead to contention within the country, and the current government still has no alternative to the decisions made. At the same time, the minister did not rule out the influence of external players aimed at overthrowing the current Lebanese cabinet.

A statement on the protests was also made by the leader of the Shiite Hezbollah party, Hassan Nasrallah. The politician said he did not support the protesters' calls for the resignation of the government, since the new cabinet had too little time to resolve all the accumulated economic problems. Nasrallah also did not support the idea put forward by the protesters to create a government of "technocrats." However, he doubted that the introduction of new taxes for the population could be a way to resolve economic problems.

Despite concessions from the authorities, protesters continued to flock to the main streets of Beirut on October 19, Al-Jazeera reports.

As Boris Dolgov, a leading researcher at the Center for Arabian and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained in an interview with RT, protests continue because the WhatsApp tax was far from the only cause of discontent.

“The fact is that Lebanon has a difficult socio-economic situation, the problems are not resolved, but only exacerbated. An additional negative factor for the economy was the influx of refugees from Syria. Attempts by the authorities to introduce new taxes could not but aggravate the situation - this became an impetus for protests that relate not only to a specific tax, but to the whole situation in the economy, ”the expert emphasized.

A similar point of view is shared by professor at Moscow State University, an expert on the Middle East, Alexander Vavilov. According to the expert, both the population and the authorities are in a deadlock now - new taxes can hurt citizens, and the government is forced to take such unpopular measures because it does not have the resources to maneuver.

“I think that the abolition of the WhatsApp tax will help stop the protests - after all, this is a concession from the authorities,” the expert suggested in an interview with RT.

Fragile balance

According to experts, a further aggravation of the political confrontation in Lebanon and the resignation of the government could turn into extremely dangerous consequences for the country.

“Lebanon already had a long period of inter-confessional war, it ended, but in recent years the situation has begun to heat up again. This is partly due to the large influx of Syrian Sunni refugees, who often carry quite radical ideas. Today, external forces may try to use the Sunni-Shiite confrontation for a new round of internal confrontation, and the resignation of the government will undoubtedly increase the risk of this, ”Boris Dolgov is sure.

Recall that the formation of the current Cabinet of Lebanon, whose protesters now require the resignation, lasted more than eight months. Although the elections took place in May 2018, the composition of the government was announced only in January 2019, and Saad Hariri headed the cabinet. The remaining posts were distributed between Lebanon's leading religious and political forces, such as the Al-Mustakbal Sunni Muslim party, the Shiite Hezbollah, the Kataib party of Lebanese Christians, and other political structures. As a result of the vote, movements representing the interests of the Shiite population strengthened their positions in parliament, while the results of the Prime Minister Al-Mustakbal deteriorated.

  • Elections in Lebanon, May 2018.
  • Reuters
  • © Ali Hashisho

The elections were preceded by lengthy negotiations by leading Lebanese parties on amendments to the electoral law. Because of this, the elections were constantly postponed, although, according to the schedule, they were to be held back in 2013. The postponements affected not only the political, but also the economic sphere, since the authorities could not accept the state budget for several years.

A feature of the Lebanese political system is that, according to the legislation of the country, only a representative of the Christian community can occupy the post of president, the post of prime minister can be Sunni, and Shiite is always appointed speaker of the parliament. These rules are designed to maintain peace and political balance in a multi-confessional country, which was in a state of civil war from 1975 to 1990.

Today, not only the internal political situation remains tense, but also the situation on the external borders of Lebanon. The main opponent of Lebanon remains Israel, which could not defeat the Lebanese Hezbollah during the 2006 war.

  • Shelling on the border of Israel and Lebanon.
  • Reuters
  • © Aziz Taher

The situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border remains tense to this day. In September, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri even called on France and the United States to intervene in the situation with Israel. Earlier, the Lebanese army reported that the IDF fired about 40 missiles at Lebanese settlements located in the border areas.

However, experts doubt that a direct military conflict will again begin between Lebanon and Israel. As Boris Dolgov explained, Israel hardly wants to enter into a direct military confrontation with Lebanon today.

“External forces are interested in destabilizing Lebanon, which can take advantage of the protests for their own purposes. These forces are known. These are the same regional players who oppose Iran, since now Lebanon is included in the Shiite zone of influence. Of course, this would be beneficial to the United States and its allies - Israel and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, all the events unfolding in Lebanon are also becoming part of great geopolitics, ”the expert emphasized.

According to Dolgov, the political destabilization of Lebanon can lead to serious consequences not only for the republic, but also for the entire region.

“For example, Lebanon is traditionally closely connected with Syria, with Iran, which supports the Lebanese Hezbollah, which is part of the Shia axis. Lebanon is firmly integrated into the political structure of the region, and Lebanese events will certainly affect the overall configuration of Middle Eastern politics, ”Dolgov said.

Nevertheless, experts believe that the Lebanese government will be able to find a way out of the current political crisis. According to Alexander Vavilov, the Hariri government as a whole will not cancel the increase in the tax burden for the population, with the exception of certain concessions.

“Raising taxes is a necessary step, and the authorities simply have no other choice,” the expert said.

A similar point of view is shared by Boris Dolgov.

“Whether the Lebanese government will be able to smooth over the situation is a question. But still it is possible. I think that with the support of Hezbollah’s leadership, the authorities will be able to stabilize the situation, and a new “Arab spring” will not happen in Lebanon, ”the expert summed up.